A.J. Minter

A.J. Minter

30-Year-Old PitcherRP
Atlanta Braves
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Minter was Atlanta's first choice to close with Raisel Iglesias unavailable for the first month and change last season. The southpaw recorded double-digit saves (10) for the 2nd time in his career despite some ratio regression after his standout 2022 marks. Minter's 3.76 ERA (2.89 FIP) and 1.19 WHIP weren't awful, but he did have some hiccups, including a brutal month-long stretch early in the year upon which he allowed 17 runs over 14 innings (10.93 ERA). Aside from that, the veteran reliever was outstanding, posting a 1.78 ERA over his remaining 50.2 innings. The 30-year-old's walk rate (8.1%) was in line with his career average, but his 23.5% K-BB percentage was tied for 16th among qualified relievers. Minter also tallied 20-plus holds for the third consecutive season, making him a reliable contributor in leagues that count the statistic. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#496
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $6.22 million contract with Atlanta in January of 2024.
Receives $6.22 million from Atlanta
PAtlanta Braves
January 11, 2024
Atlanta and Minter avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $6.22 million contract, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
It's a well-earned raise for Minter in his final year of arbitration eligibility. The left-hander's 3.76 ERA in 2023 was a tad elevated, but he boasted an 82:21 K:BB over 64.2 innings while notching 10 saves. Minter will be counted on in high-leverage spots again in 2024.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
15
Last 10 Games
17
Last 5 Games
16
How many pitches does A.J. Minter generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does A.J. Minter generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-27%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-41%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .210 268 85 27 49 14 0 3
Since 2021vs Right .224 483 148 29 100 22 2 10
2023vs Left .288 92 24 12 23 5 0 2
2023vs Right .210 167 58 9 33 3 1 4
2022vs Left .132 77 31 5 9 3 0 1
2022vs Right .222 194 63 10 40 9 0 4
2021vs Left .200 99 30 10 17 6 0 0
2021vs Right .245 122 27 10 27 10 1 2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-51%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-60%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-60%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 4.18 1.23 94.2 6 10 7 10.8 2.3 0.7
Since 2021Away 2.05 0.96 92.1 5 6 8 11.6 3.1 0.6
2023Home 5.46 1.53 31.1 2 5 4 10.6 3.2 0.9
2023Away 2.16 0.87 33.1 1 1 6 12.2 2.7 0.8
2022Home 2.23 0.85 36.1 2 0 3 12.6 0.5 0.5
2022Away 1.87 0.98 33.2 3 4 2 11.5 3.5 0.8
2021Home 5.33 1.37 27.0 2 5 0 8.7 3.7 0.7
2021Away 2.13 1.07 25.1 1 1 0 11.0 3.2 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does A.J. Minter compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.90
 
K/9
11.4
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
0.8
 
Fastball
95.9 mph
 
ERA
3.76
 
WHIP
1.19
 
BABIP
.333
 
GB/FB
1.00
 
Left On Base
71.4%
 
Exit Velocity
80.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.6%
 
Spin Rate
2352 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.9%
 
Swinging Strike
14.8%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring A.J. Minter See More
Farm Futures: Relief Pitching Prospect Rankings
4 days ago
James Anderson goes team-by-team to highlight which pitching prospects could ascend to the closer role in the coming years, including A's righty Mason Miller.
Top Targets for Saves + Holds Leagues
21 days ago
Ryan Boyer discusses six relievers whose values jump in leagues which count holds, including Seattle's Matt Brash.
Closer Encounters: 2024 Closer Rankings 2.0
26 days ago
Several key reliever signings have shaken up Ryan Rufe's closer rankings, allowing Jhoan Duran to move into the top three.
The Z Files: Projecting Pitcher's BABIP
45 days ago
Todd Zola considers a new approach to regressing a pitcher's BABIP, which suggests better days should be ahead for Hunter Greene.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Those who take a skills-based approach when speculating on saves late in drafts should look no further than Minter, who may now be one injury away from becoming Atlanta's closer. The southpaw posted his best strikeout (34.7%) and walk (5.5%) rates since his rookie-season sample in 2017 and was 7th among qualifed relievers with a 29.2% K-BB percentage. He pitched a career-high 70 innings and led the league with 35 holds while adding a handful of saves. Minter's 96.6 mph average fastball velocity tied a career high, while his cutter and changeup were also effective in generating whiffs and strikeouts. If the lefty maintains his newfound control, there may be even more opportunity for saves, even if he's not the Braves primary closer. Either way, Minter is a top-tier target for leagues that count holds.
Minter has gone from a potential closer early in his career to someone now stuck toiling in middle relief in his current home. The lefty has plenty of velocity and has struck out 27.3% of the hitters he has faced in nearly 180 innings of major-league work while keeping the ball in the yard. An argument could be made for Minter to work higher-leverage innings for a lesser club. Atlanta already has high-leverage lefties in Will Smith and Tyler Matzek, so it's possible Minter is packaged up in something should Atlanta want to find a Freddie Freeman replacement on the open market once the lockout ends. This is an interesting case of taking the skills while seeing what role develops for Minter.
Minter earned 15 saves for Atlanta in 2018 and generated quite a bit of buzz before falling off in 2019. He lost the closer job in a hurry, spent time in the minors and ended that year on the IL with shoulder inflammation. The lefty uses a slider -- categorized sometimes as a cutter -- as his primary pitch and is comfortable using it in all counts. Meanwhile the four-seam fastball velocity held steady at 95.5 mph on average, so there are no obvious lingering effects of the shoulder issue that ended his 2019 season. He's allowed just one homer to lefty hitters in his career, and while less dominant against righties, he's held his own against opposite-handed pitching at the MLB level (3.58 FIP). Minter is not even the top southpaw in his bullpen -- that's Will Smith -- but the closer carousel is always going to turn and it's not hard to imagine Minter getting saves again at some point in 2021.
Many drafted Minter with the hope he would receive the bulk of the Braves' save chances in 2019, but all were disappointed by his efforts. Minter's season began with a sore shoulder which led to a velocity dip and control issues that sent him to Triple-A for a bit. The numbers in Gwinnett were more in line with what everyone hoped for -- he had a healthy 28.7 K-BB% and a sub-3.00 xFIP -- but it was too little too late. He only appeared in two games in September, the result of more shoulder trouble. Minter's draft-day value will depend in part on how the shoulder holds up to the offseason therapy, though with Will Smith joining Mark Melancon at the back end of the Atlanta bullpen, Minter is even further from the closer role. Hopefully he can avoid shoulder surgery. We have seen what he is capable of, and we have also seen how fragile things can be when Minter has something wrong with him.
Minter was a popular handcuff for Arodys Vizcaino last spring. The move proved prescient as Vizcaino was sidelined for a couple months and yielded closing duties to Minter. When Vizcaino returned in mid-September, they initially shared the role before Vizcaino took over the last week and into the playoffs. Minter finished the season with 15 saves and 12 holds. However, he was sluggish over the second half, registering a 3.79 ERA and 1.47 WHIP the final two months. Minter throws a 97-mph fastball and 92-mph slider, occasionally mixing in a change. He’s dominant enough for ninth-inning duties, but inconsistent control gets him into trouble occasionally. That's what happened the final two months of the season, likely putting Minter behind Vizcaino for the closing gig in the spring, Still, with Vizcaino’s own dalliance with control woes along with health issues, Minter will again be a top speculative saves dart.
Minter debuted with the Braves last season after cruising through the minor-league system with a big four-seam fastball, slider and cutter combo. He showed a few issues with walks at Double-A and Triple-A last season before his promotion, but he was sharp in Atlanta and his walk rate in 2016 was a non-issue across three levels. Rather quietly, Minter struck out 43.3 percent of the batters he faced, thanks to a gaudy 18.2 percent swinging-strike rate. It would hardly be surprising if Minter gets a chance to serve as the Braves' primary late-inning lefty, as he has the overpowering stuff necessary to help get the ball to Arodys Vizcaino in the ninth inning. In the event that Vizcaino falters or gets hurt, Minter is on the short list of interesting options who could take over the closer role, but he's on an even shorter list of Atlanta relievers capable of making an impact as a strikeout machine and ratios helper even if he's not providing saves.
More Fantasy News
Makes return from IL
PAtlanta Braves
July 31, 2023
Atlanta reinstated Minter (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Rehab appearance on tap
PAtlanta Braves
Shoulder
July 23, 2023
Minter (shoulder) will make a rehab appearance at Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws bullpen session
PAtlanta Braves
Shoulder
July 22, 2023
Minter (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Saturday, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lands on injured list
PAtlanta Braves
Shoulder
July 15, 2023
Atlanta placed Minter on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left shoulder inflammation, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Dealing with pec tightness
PAtlanta Braves
Pectoral
July 8, 2023
Minter exited his appearance Saturday against the Rays due to left pectoral tightness, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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