Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Los Angeles Dodgers
2022 Fantasy Outlook
In this era of short starts from starting pitchers, Buehler is something of a unicorn in MLB (non-Ohtani Division). Remarkably, Buehler completed at least six innings in each of his first 16 starts to begin 2021, and went at least six in 26 of his first 27 starts through the end of August. There were a few bumps in the road in September and in the postseason, but Buehler was one of four pitchers to clear 200 innings during the 2021 regular season and he tacked on 18.1 frames in the playoffs. The right-hander held opponents to a .197 batting average, ranking second among qualifiers behind only Max Scherzer, and while his strikeout rate dipped to a career-low 26.0%, his 33.1 O-Swing%, 11.6 SwStr% and 29.6 CSW% were all right in line with career norms. Pitching for one of the best teams in baseball, Buehler has a 31-8 record in the regular season over the past three seasons. This combination of skills, team context and consistency with workload make Buehler a first-round consideration. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#17
ADP
$Signed a two-year, $8 million contract with the Dodgers in February of 2021.
Surrenders five runs in no-decision
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 13, 2022
Buehler registered a no-decision during Friday's 12-10 loss against the Phillies, allowing five runs on nine hits and one walk with three strikeouts in five innings.
ANALYSIS
Buehler let two runs across in the second inning and three more in the fourth, all of them coming with two outs. The five runs surrendered nearly matches his total of seven through the 27-year-old's first 24.2 innings and caused his ERA to spike nearly one full run from 1.96 to 2.81. Additionally, Buehler has only struck out more than six batters once in seven starts after doing so 15 times last season. He's projected to start again early next week against Arizona.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
91
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Walker Buehler generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Walker Buehler generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-12%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-2%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .209 604 146 44 115 26 2 13
Since 2020vs Right .202 552 147 31 103 22 0 16
2022vs Left .266 102 19 6 25 6 0 1
2022vs Right .233 92 20 6 20 3 0 2
2021vs Left .201 423 102 33 77 18 2 9
2021vs Right .198 392 110 19 72 18 0 10
2020vs Left .176 79 25 5 13 2 0 3
2020vs Right .180 68 17 6 11 1 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-28%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-69%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-79%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 2.29 1.03 169.1 14 3 0 9.4 2.6 0.9
Since 2020Away 3.18 0.98 121.2 8 2 0 8.6 2.0 1.0
2022Home 4.21 1.64 25.2 2 1 0 6.3 2.8 1.1
2022Away 1.29 0.71 21.0 3 0 0 9.0 1.7 0.0
2021Home 2.05 0.96 123.0 11 2 0 9.5 2.5 1.0
2021Away 3.08 0.98 84.2 5 2 0 8.7 1.9 0.6
2020Home 1.31 0.68 20.2 1 0 0 12.6 2.6 0.0
2020Away 6.19 1.31 16.0 0 0 0 7.3 2.8 3.9
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Stat Review
How does Walker Buehler compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.25
 
K/9
7.5
 
BB/9
2.3
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
95.1 mph
 
ERA
2.89
 
WHIP
1.22
 
BABIP
.312
 
GB/FB
1.60
 
Left On Base
79.5%
 
Exit Velocity
81.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
3.6%
 
Spin Rate
2354 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.4%
 
Swinging Strike
13.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Walker Buehler
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Decision Time
Yesterday
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as we've reached the point where fantasy owners must decide whether to continue to stream pitchers.
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2 days ago
Todd Zola examines the league-wide stolen-base environment and identifies some speedy players who could be valuable as streaming options, including Andres Gimenez.
Mound Musings: The Endgame Odyssey Continues – National League
3 days ago
Brad Johnson reviews some NL bullpens with question marks still remaining, including in Cincinnati, where Lucas Sims keeps hitting the injured list.
Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Mercury Rising
8 days ago
Todd Zola ranks the week's starting pitching as warming weather is contributing to more scoring. Sugar Shane McClanahan only has one start, but still tops the AL rankings.
Collette Calls: Still Chasing Wins
9 days ago
Wins have been hard to come by this season. Jason Collette examines early run-support numbers and notes pitchers that have enjoyed good fortune in that regard, and those that have not, like Corbin Burnes.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
A pair of IL stints due to a persistent blister on his pitching hand limited Buehler to just eight regular-season starts in 2020, but he nonetheless continued to demonstrate why he is touted as one of MLB's best young hurlers. The right-hander got off to a slow start after a delayed ramp-up to the shortened campaign, yet he still managed a 3.44 ERA, 28.6 K% and career-best 0.95 WHIP. His fastball was again the star of the show as Buehler placed in the 88th percentile with a 96.8 mph average velocity on his heater and in the 97th percentile for fastball spin while holding hitters to a .102 BA and .119 SLG on his four-seamer. The 26-year-old continued to shine in the postseason, turning in a 1.80 ERA with 39 strikeouts over 25 innings. There may be a handful of pitchers chosen ahead of Buehler in your fantasy draft; if he gets to you in the second round, run a celebratory lap around your home.
Buehler didn't take many days off, posting the first of what should be many 30-start campaigns. Early, the Dodgers limited Buehler's in-game workload as he's just two years removed from Tommy John surgery and they wanted their prized righty fresh for the playoffs. Buehler did his part, allowing just one run in 12.2 postseason frames, but his club of course came up short. With Buehler fronting their rotation, the Dodgers' championship window remains wide open. The 25-year-old right-hander deploys a four-pitch arsenal, featuring a 97-mph fastball he used 60% of the time along with a slider, cutter and curve evenly split the rest of the time. The result was a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, with a 24.2 K-BB%, seventh best among qualified starters. Most will group Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer together. Buehler belongs in the next tier, perhaps even at the top.
Buehler was a blast to watch pitch as a rookie in 2018 as he showcased an electric fastball along with two different breaking balls. It was easy to see why he was a first-round draft pick and it is going to be hard to restrain ourselves this draft season in chasing him for our rosters. However, that pursuit should be exercised with an amount of caution. Buehler already has one Tommy John surgery under his belt, which limited the amount of pitching he could do in the minor leagues. Those restrictions were not present last season as Buehler threw a total of 173 innings, nearly doubling his total from 2017. At age 24, to have a workload jump of that size is a risk to keep in mind if you decide you are all in on rostering the young flamethrower. Everything else we want to see in a young future ace is here (21.1% K-BB, 50% GB%), and the team context is certainly favorable.
The 2016 season ended with whispers and a five-inning sample that suggested Buehler could be in for a breakout 2017. He delivered on that promise, and then some. Buehler, who underwent Tommy John surgery after being selected with the No. 24 pick in the 2015 draft, returned at the end of 2016 throwing harder than ever, sitting in the mid-90s and touching 99 mph with his fastball -- a byproduct of the Dodgers’ weighted ball program. He maintained that velocity over his first full pro season while also showing off a plus-plus curveball and hard low-90s cutter/slider. That pitch mix was predictably deadly against minor-league hitters, catapulting Buehler to the majors for a September run as a reliever. Given Buehler’s velocity jump and injury history, he seems a bit riskier than other top pitching prospects, but his upside is undeniable. The Dodgers will likely allow him to throw around 135 innings this season, presumably beginning the year at Triple-A. If he shows improved control, he could spend most of the summer pitching every fifth day in the big leagues.
The Dodgers took a calculated gamble when they selected Buehler with the 24th overall pick in the 2015 draft. Once considered a likely top-10 pick, a pre-draft elbow issue caused him to fall, and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery that August. Buehler returned to the mound late last season, and while he only logged five innings of game action, the early returns suggest the Dodgers may have hit big on their roll of the dice. He touched 99 mph with his fastball in instructs after sitting in the mid-90s during brief appearances in the Arizona and Midwest leagues. It is hard to expect him to maintain that velocity over lengthier outings in the coming years, but even if he settles in at 93-95 mph with his fastball, that makes for a plus offering. He also features a potentially plus curveball and a hard slider/cutter that could be a third plus pitch. An average changeup could round out the repertoire, and at that point Buehler would look the part of a No. 2 starter.
The team's top draft pick in the 2015 amateur draft (24th overall), Buehler dropped a bit down teams' boards due to an elbow injury last spring, and the injury ultimately led to Tommy John surgery this past August. When healthy, the 6-foot-2 Buehler features a mid-90s fastball, slider, curve, and changeup with solid command and the ability to miss bats. Buehler's last 14 starts for Vanderbilt resulted in an 81:25 K:BB over 78.2 innings. He seems likely to miss most, if not all of the 2016 season recuperating, but it is possible he could join a full-season affiliate late in the year, or he could pitch in the Arizona Fall League. Once healthy, he has the ability to move quickly as a college draftee and settle in as a No. 3 big league starter. He's won a College World Series and a Cape Cod Championship, a pedigree that the Dodgers certainly hope carries over.
More Fantasy News
Pushed up to start Friday
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 13, 2022
Buehler will start Friday against the Phillies in place of Clayton Kershaw (hip), who was placed on the 15-day injured list, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Goes seven innings in win
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 8, 2022
Buehler (4-1) got the win during Sunday's 7-1 victory over the Cubs, allowing one run on four hits and two walks with six strikeouts in seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Five scoreless frames
PLos Angeles Dodgers
May 1, 2022
Buehler (3-1) registered the win during Sunday's 6-3 victory over Detroit, allowing six hits and one walk with five strikeouts in five scoreless innings.
ANALYSIS
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Dominates in season's first shutout
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 26, 2022
Buehler (2-1) earned the win over Arizona on Monday, tossing nine shutout innings during which he allowed three hits and struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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Goes five innings in loss
PLos Angeles Dodgers
April 20, 2022
Buehler (1-1) took the loss during Tuesday's 3-1 defeat against Atlanta, allowing three runs on eight hits and one walk with two strikeouts in five innings.
ANALYSIS
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