Vladimir Guerrero

22-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Toronto Blue Jays

2021 Stats

AVG

.311

RBI

111

123

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2021 Fantasy Outlook

Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#48

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 250

DOB 3/16/1999

Born Montreal, Canada

College None

Drafted 2015 TOR

In Sunday's lineup

1BToronto Blue Jays

October 3, 2021

Guerrero (ankle) is batting third and playing first base Sunday against the Orioles.

ANALYSIS
As expected, Guerrero is good to go after rolling his ankle and exiting Saturday's game. He has an enticing matchup against left-handed starter Bruce Zimmermann.

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Batting Stats

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2021

2020

2019

2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2019

+11%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+8%

OPS vs RHP

2020

+17%

OPS vs LHP

2019

+28%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019vs Left	.819	384	64	20	43	1	.251	.349	.470
Since 2019vs Right	.906	1071	145	52	170	4	.302	.373	.533
2021vs Left	.946	173	33	11	19	1	.295	.405	.541
2021vs Right	1.020	525	90	37	92	3	.317	.400	.620
2020vs Left	.887	66	14	5	9	0	.224	.318	.569
2020vs Right	.757	177	20	4	24	1	.276	.333	.423
2019vs Left	.643	145	17	4	15	0	.215	.297	.346
2019vs Right	.822	369	35	11	54	0	.293	.355	.467
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2019

+12%

OPS at Home

2021

+29%

OPS at Home

2020

+40%

OPS at Home

2019

+28%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2019Home	.935	704	115	40	117	4	.297	.376	.559
Since 2019Away	.833	747	93	31	95	1	.281	.359	.474
2021Home	1.133	346	70	31	69	3	.332	.425	.708
2021Away	.875	352	53	17	42	1	.291	.378	.497
2020Home	.932	104	19	4	21	1	.326	.385	.547
2020Away	.666	135	14	4	11	0	.213	.289	.377
2019Home	.677	254	26	5	27	0	.239	.307	.370
2019Away	.865	260	26	10	42	0	.303	.369	.496
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Stat Review

How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.

BB/K

0.78

BB Rate

12.3%

K Rate

15.8%

BABIP

.313

ISO

.290

AVG

.311

OBP

.401

SLG

.601

OPS

1.002

wOBA

.428

Exit Velocity

86.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

42.1%

Barrels/PA

11.2%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Vladimir Guerrero Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Blue Jays Depth Chart

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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Vladimir Guerrero

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25 days ago

Dan Marcus mentions a number of stacks that should do well today.

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25 days ago

Picking a pitcher with plenty to play for today sounds like a solid DFS strategy, and Chris Morgan has offered two of them.

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27 days ago

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DraftKings MLB: Friday Breakdown

27 days ago

Mike Barner offers up his picks for Friday night’s games, including Seattle outfielder Mitch Haniger, who’s in a good spot with his matchup with Jose Suarez.

DraftKings MLB: Thursday Breakdown

28 days ago

Mike Barner previews Thursday's DraftKings offering, recommending a Jays stack in a high-stakes series finale against the Yankees.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.

It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.

An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.

One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.

Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.

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