Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
20-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Toronto Blue Jays
2019 Fantasy Outlook
It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Blue Jays in April of 2019.
Smashes first career grand slam
3BToronto Blue Jays
July 20, 2019
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a grand slam in a 7-5 victory over the Tigers on Saturday.
ANALYSIS
The 20-year-old has loved hitting in Detroit this weekend, as he is 5-for-9 with five RBI, raising his average 11 points to .249. Somewhat surprisingly, given his Home Run Derby performance, this was also his first long ball since June 29. Guerrero has nine home runs, 31 RBI and 34 runs in 257 at-bats this season.
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Batting Stats
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
30
2
11
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
17
1
6
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+19%
OPS vs RHP
2019
 
 
+19%
OPS vs RHP
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left .647 93 13 3 10 0 .214 .290 .357
Since 2017vs Right .768 201 21 6 21 0 .268 .343 .425
2019vs Left .647 93 13 3 10 0 .214 .290 .357
2019vs Right .768 201 21 6 21 0 .268 .343 .425
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+12%
OPS on Road
2019
 
 
+12%
OPS on Road
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .685 138 17 3 8 0 .236 .319 .366
Since 2017Away .769 156 17 6 23 0 .264 .333 .436
2019Home .685 138 17 3 8 0 .236 .319 .366
2019Away .769 156 17 6 23 0 .264 .333 .436
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Stat Review
How does Vladimir Guerrero Jr. compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against this season's data (min 200 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.55
 
BB Rate
9.9%
 
K Rate
18.0%
 
BABIP
.282
 
ISO
.152
 
AVG
.251
 
OBP
.327
 
SLG
.403
 
OPS
.730
 
wOBA
.324
 
Exit Velocity
88.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
36.5%
 
Barrels/PA
5.2%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Blue Jays Depth Chart
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
15 days ago
Erik Halterman highlights players on the upswing, and those on the downswing. Is now the time to trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?
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16 days ago
With the Tigers continuing to struggle offensively, Sasha Yodashkin sees no problem picking David Price as a solid pitching option.
FanDuel MLB: Friday Breakdown
18 days ago
Adam Zdroik prefers a Red Sox stack Friday in a soft matchup against Gregory Soto and the Tigers.
Regan's Rumblings: Second-Half Prospect Stashes
21 days ago
Dave Regan discusses prospects on the cusp of benefiting fantasy teams, including the Astros’ Kyle Tucker who is Regan’s top minor league stash this year.
Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers
21 days ago
Even though Bo Bichette is impressing at Triple-A, Jesse Siegel says he may not see any big-league action for a while.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.
One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.
Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.
More Fantasy News
Crosses plate three times in rout
3BToronto Blue Jays
July 19, 2019
Guerrero went 3-for-5 with three runs scored and an RBI in Friday's 12-1 win over the Tigers.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting out series opener
3BToronto Blue Jays
July 15, 2019
Guerrero is out of the lineup for Monday's game against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Good to go Sunday
3BToronto Blue Jays
July 7, 2019
Guerrero (illness) will start at third base and bat fifth Sunday against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Leaves with stomach illness
3BToronto Blue Jays
Illness
July 6, 2019
Guerrero left Saturday's game against the Orioles with a stomach ache, Scott Mitchell of TSN.ca reports.
ANALYSIS
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Heads to bench
3BToronto Blue Jays
July 4, 2019
Guerrero is not in the lineup for Thursday's game against the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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