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Vladimir Guerrero

Vladimir Guerrero

26-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Toronto Blue Jays
2025 Stats
AVG
.295
HR
4
RBI
18
R
19
SB
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
AVG
HR
RBI
R
SB
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2025 Fantasy Outlook
Toronto was once again a disappointing club, especially offensively, but the blame cannot be placed on Guerrero. His 2021 numbers were inflated by the minor-league parks Toronto played in that season, yet the combination of his reputation and that season was the perfect storm to push his valuation through the roof. Last season saw him finish as the top first baseman and as a top-15 overall hitter in fantasy for a club that finished last in the division and led the league in stranding runners. Guerrero drove in 103 runs and nearly scored 100 runs despite the lack of a consistent supporting cast around him, and conditions are not likely to change heading into 2025 outside of potentially a healthy Bo Bichette in the lineup. Guerrero is a free agent after the 2025 season and could command a king's ransom in a trade this winter or on the open market a year from now. The rededication to his conditioning certainly helped him have a MLB-stadium career year in 2024 and there is no reason to think he cannot at least repeat that success in 2025. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
#Subscriber-Only
Overall Rank
#Subscriber-Only
Dynasty
From Preseason
#13
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'2"
Weight 250
DOB 3/16/1999
Born Montreal, Canada
College None
Drafted 2015 TOR
$Signed a 14-year, $500 million contract extension with the Blue Jays in April of 2025.
Extends hitting streak to 10 games
1BToronto Blue Jays
May 8, 2025
Guerrero went 3-for-4 with two runs scored and a walk in Thursday's win over the Angels.
ANALYSIS
Guerrero extended his hitting streak to 10 games, delivering his third multi-hit effort during this span. The All-Star first baseman is batting sizzling .359 (14-for-39) with two homers, one double, six RBI and nine runs scored over his last 10 outings. Although Guerrero has just four round trippers over 139 at-bats this season, his top-tier 54.2 percent hard-hit rate entering Thursday's action suggests some positive regression in this area could come eventually.
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Batting Stats
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2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
27
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
9
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2023
 
 
+3%
OPS vs LHP
2025
 
 
+27%
OPS vs LHP
2024
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+3%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2023vs Left .881 302 37 10 42 3 .300 .411 .470
Since 2023vs Right .854 1239 158 50 173 4 .293 .362 .492
2025vs Left .969 39 7 2 6 0 .324 .410 .559
2025vs Right .764 123 12 2 12 0 .286 .374 .390
2024vs Left .956 139 16 6 27 1 .308 .417 .538
2024vs Right .936 558 82 24 76 1 .327 .391 .545
2023vs Left .766 124 14 2 9 2 .284 .403 .363
2023vs Right .792 558 64 24 85 3 .260 .332 .460
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Minor League Splits→ View Minor League Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2023
 
 
+4%
OPS on Road
2025
 
 
+4%
OPS at Home
2024
 
 
+6%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+20%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2023Home .841 759 101 28 112 5 .284 .370 .471
Since 2023Away .877 782 94 32 103 2 .303 .373 .504
2025Home .829 85 11 3 12 0 .268 .365 .465
2025Away .800 77 8 1 6 0 .324 .403 .397
2024Home .970 338 51 15 54 2 .334 .417 .553
2024Away .912 359 47 15 49 0 .313 .376 .536
2023Home .716 336 39 10 46 3 .238 .324 .391
2023Away .858 346 39 16 48 2 .289 .364 .494
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Stat Review
How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.63
 
BB Rate
12.1%
 
K Rate
19.1%
 
BABIP
.330
 
ISO
.141
 
AVG
.281
 
OBP
.369
 
SLG
.422
 
OPS
.792
 
wOBA
.345
 
Exit Velocity
93.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
43.0%
 
Barrels/PA
10.2%
 
Expected BA
.310
 
Expected SLG
.523
 
Sprint Speed
21.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.9%
 
Line Drive %
26.2%
 
Fly Ball %
29.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
View Complete Vladimir Guerrero Prospect Ranking History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Blue Jays Depth Chart
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
In the spring of 2022, Guerrero Jr. famously stated that 2021 was a trailer and now fans will see a movie. Like most sequels, the team and the player has failed to deliver on promises. Guerrero's 2021 nomadic season in friendly run environments helped him established career hights he has failed to come close to in each of the past two seasons. Management tweaked Rogers Centre before the 2023 season, but that did not prevent Guerrero's overall numbers from sliding for a second consecutive season as he and the rest of the club struggled to produce runs despite plenty of traffic on the bases throughout the season. If you treat 2021 as an outlier rather than a ceiling, 2024 Guerrero Jr. should not disappoint you given his skills provide a very high floor. Just remember that sequels are rarely better than the original and Vlady's 2021 season is a cult classic that should be appreciated rather than expected.
It was expected that Guerrero would drop back from his incredible 2021 season due to Toronto playing full-time at Rogers Centre rather than the cozy environments of Dunedin and Buffalo, as well as the changes to Camden Yards for road trips. Factor in the mushball and his homers dropped off to where we realistically should have expected them to be, but it was surprising to see both his runs and RBIs fall back below 100 considering the talent in the lineup around him in Toronto. Whereas he hit .315 with 11 homers with runners in scoring position in 2021, those numbers fell to .267 and five respectively last year in nearly identical sample sizes. RISP production lacks year-over-year stickiness, but it was an issue last year as the league did tend to pitch around him leading to more walks (11 percent) in those situations than others (eight percent.) The eight steals were a nice bonus, considering he is not the fleetest of foot. We can call him a five-category contributor as a first baseman; he cannot quite pull off a younger Paul Goldschmidt, but who can?
All that promise was realized in 2021 as Guerrero finished as an AL MVP finalist at age 21. The baseball skills are off the charts, with his bat speed, plate coverage and plate discipline all being exceptional even to the relatively naked baseball eye. It shows up in his Statcast numbers, too. Guerrero landed in the top 3% of the league in avgEV, maxEV, Hard Hit% and xwOBA last season. What Guerrero is not is the world's greatest natural athlete, and that shows in the lack of stolen bases and middling defensive numbers even after a move across the diamond to first base. However, Guerrero did show more dedication to training and was noticeably slimmer for much of the 2021 season. As long as he takes care of his body, Guerrero can follow in his father's footsteps into the Hall of Fame one day. In the meantime, Guerrero should stand side by side with Juan Soto as one of the greatest pure hitters of this new generation.
Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick.
Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.
It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.
An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.
One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.
Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.
More Fantasy News
Crushes go-ahead three-run homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
May 1, 2025
Guerrero went 1-for-4 with a three-run home run in Thursday's win over the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Provides only offense Tuesday
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 30, 2025
Guerrero went 1-for-4 with a two-run homer in Tuesday's loss to the Red Sox.
ANALYSIS
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Smacks second homer of 2025
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 25, 2025
Guerrero went 1-for-3 with one walk and a solo homer in Friday's 4-2 win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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Opens homer account for 2025
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 16, 2025
Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a walk, a home run and two RBI in Wednesday's 3-1 win over Atlanta.
ANALYSIS
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First day off Thursday
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 10, 2025
Guerrero is not in the lineup for Thursday's tilt in Boston.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
No deferrals, gets no-trade clause
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 8, 2025
Guerrero's 14-year, $500 million contract with the Blue Jays includes a full no-trade clause and no deferrals, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.
ANALYSIS
Guerrero set a negotiation deadline for the start of spring training, but the Blue Jays front office remained persistent and were able to lock in the first baseman for the rest of his career. The 26-year-old is batting .279 this season but has yet to homer through 11 games after he clubbed 30 long balls with a .940 OPS in 2024.
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