Vladimir Guerrero
Vladimir Guerrero
22-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Toronto Blue Jays
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Vladito came into spring training looking slimmer than how he had finished 2019 and many were excited enough to once again draft him in the top 50. Once the pandemic hit, Guerrero's conditioning evaporated and he showed up hefty in July and took a while to get going in 2020. His final numbers were pretty much in line with what he did in his rookie season, which was a disappointment given the high bar his talent sets for him. He has tremendous power and an excellent hit tool, but a 2:1 groundball-to-flyball ratio ultimately limited his power output. His average exit velocity is in the top 10% of the league in spite of his conditioning issues, so his path to a 25-plus homer season is rather easy to envision. Guerrero got working on his conditioning right as the season ended and dropped 32 pounds by early November with an eye on moving back to third base. He will likely be drafted in the top 50 again; maybe this time he produces like a top 50 pick. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#49
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $579,300 contract with the Blue Jays in March of 2020.
Belts fourth homer
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 17, 2021
Guerrero went 2-for-3 with a solo home run and a second run scored in the first game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
He walked and scored another run in the nightcap, but it was his sixth-inning blast off Mike Minor that was the highlight of Guerrero's day. The 22-year-old appears headed for his long-awaited breakout campaign, and through 15 games he's slashing a dazzling .412/.524/.706 with four homers and 11 RBI.
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Batting Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
7
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+8%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+87%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+17%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+28%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019vs Left .761 221 36 10 26 1 .228 .326 .435
Since 2019vs Right .825 603 60 18 87 1 .295 .358 .467
2021vs Left 2.000 10 5 1 2 1 .600 .800 1.200
2021vs Right 1.068 57 5 3 9 0 .367 .456 .612
2020vs Left .887 66 14 5 9 0 .224 .318 .569
2020vs Right .757 177 20 4 24 1 .276 .333 .423
2019vs Left .643 145 17 4 15 0 .215 .297 .346
2019vs Right .822 369 35 11 54 0 .293 .355 .467
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2019
 
 
+6%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+5%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+40%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+28%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2019Home .782 386 47 10 55 2 .277 .347 .435
Since 2019Away .827 434 48 17 57 0 .278 .353 .474
2021Home 1.208 28 2 1 7 1 .455 .571 .636
2021Away 1.149 39 8 3 4 0 .344 .462 .688
2020Home .932 104 19 4 21 1 .326 .385 .547
2020Away .666 135 14 4 11 0 .213 .289 .377
2019Home .677 254 26 5 27 0 .239 .307 .370
2019Away .865 260 26 10 42 0 .303 .369 .496
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Stat Review
How does Vladimir Guerrero compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
1.00
 
BB Rate
16.4%
 
K Rate
16.4%
 
BABIP
.436
 
ISO
.278
 
AVG
.389
 
OBP
.507
 
SLG
.667
 
OPS
1.174
 
wOBA
.503
 
Exit Velocity
85.9 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
39.5%
 
Barrels/PA
7.5%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Vladimir Guerrero
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
Yesterday
Erik Halterman analyzes some early-season risers and fallers, and questions whether this could be a breakout year for Vladimir Guerrero.
Bernie on the Scene: Corner Infield Trade Targets
Yesterday
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes some trade targets at the corners who could help fantasy teams, including the Royals' Hunter Dozier.
DraftKings MLB: Thursday Breakdown
5 days ago
Mike Barner sets the tone for Thursday’s DraftKings slate, locking in a stack of Nats bats against Arizona.
The Z Files: The Fallacy of Stabilization and an Early Look at Home Runs
10 days ago
Todd Zola offers some thoughts on early-season trends, including the home run surge led by Nick Castellanos and the Reds.
DraftKings MLB: Wednesday Breakdown
13 days ago
Mike Barner sets the table for Wednesday's DraftKings offering, recommending a Twins stack against Matthew Boyd and the Tigers.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Once he overcame a spring oblique injury, Guerrero arrived in Toronto in late April for one of the most anticipated debuts in recent memory. Given the hype that surrounded him as baseball's top prospect along with his exorbitant cost in fantasy drafts and auctions, it's not totally unfair to view Guerrero's first season as disappointing. Even so, the fact that he was an above-average hitter (105 wRC+) at 20 years old is reason enough to be bullish about his outlook moving forward. Guerrero may have set the wheels in motion for a breakout based on the adjustments he made in the second half, when he slashed .293/.349/.452 and enjoyed a stretch from late July to late August where he was one of the majors' top hitters. Despite not meeting the sky-high expectations as a rookie, Guerrero won't come at a discount in 2020, as his reputation as a generational hitter remains intact in the minds of many.
It has become an annual tradition for there to be a line in the sand, where fantasy analysts argue over whether the top prospect in baseball is worth his draft price. Of course, not all No. 1 prospects are created equal. In this case, the best hitting prospect in a generation is set to debut in mid-to-late April. He will be a second-round pick in some redraft leagues. Believers are paying up while doubters decry that anyone who pays that price is banking on the best-case scenario. It is widely accepted that Guerrero has an 80-grade hit tool. Scouts go years without bestowing that on a prospect, and some refuse to do so out of principle. He has at least 70-grade raw power, generating elite exit velocities in the Arizona Fall League. With all this in mind, nobody should be surprised if Guerrero hits well over .300 with 25-plus home runs in his MLB debut. He has a thick lower half and figures to eventually move off third base to first base or designated hitter.
An 18-year-old with future 70s and 80s on his hit and power tools (depending which scout you ask), Guerrero looks like a generational hitting talent. His accomplishments as the youngest player at Low-A and High-A rightfully inspire awe and hyperbole. Among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances, Guerrero’s 151 wRC+ ranked eighth in the Midwest League and his 179 wRC+ ranked first in the Florida State League. He walked significantly more than he struck out at both stops and appears to have experienced normal luck on balls in play. The more outlandish his assignment, the more productive Guerrero became. He will stick at third base for now, and while he could move to first base, an outfield corner or DH down the road, it has become clear that his bat will profile anywhere. He should finish his age-19 season at Triple-A, which could set him up to be next year’s Ronald Acuna, primed for a mid-April callup in 2019.
One may be tempted to say that Guerrero has impossibly large shoes to fill, but judging by the early returns at the ripe age of 17, the new "Junior" looks up to the task. He made it look easy at rookie-level Bluefield in 2016, posting a 122 wRC+, eight homers and a 33:35 BB:K in 276 plate appearances against competition that was on average more than three years older than him. Guerrero also showed an ability to handle right-handed pitching (.859 OPS), a necessity for any right-handed power bat. He may have to move from third base to first base or an outfield corner, but if he hits as expected, he will be a perennial early-round pick in fantasy, regardless of where he plays. He has a little speed at this stage but that is unlikely to be a big part of his game at maturity. While Guerrero is several years away from reaching the majors, he has all the makings of an impact fantasy option.
Few names are as synonymous with raw power as Vladimir Guerrero, so it’s no surprise that his 16-year-old son looks like quite the prospect. Signed in July of 2015 for $3.9 million, the teenager is a free-swinging power hitter that shares a number of other traits with his father. At the plate, despite being born in 1999, he has good hand-eye coordination and tremendous bat speed. He’s a poor runner, grading out as a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he possesses less-than-ideal arm strength (unlike his father, who packed a Howitzer). While that’s not to say that he can’t develop into the player his father was, the 6-foot-1, 200-pound Guerrero still has plenty of time to mature into a strong MLB contributor. He should start the season playing rookie ball, and while his dream of playing in the majors at 18 is highly unlikely to happen, he has the power to progress rapidly through the minor league ranks.
More Fantasy News
Crushes monster home run
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 15, 2021
Guerrero went 3-for-5 with a solo homer and two runs in a loss to the Royals on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Collects three RBI
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 10, 2021
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with two walks, a stolen base, three RBI and a run scored Saturday in a victory over the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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Blasts homer, drives in three
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 8, 2021
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer and three RBI in a loss to the Angels on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Hits first double of season
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 8, 2021
Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a double in Wednesday's 2-1 loss to Texas.
ANALYSIS
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Goes deep against Yankees
1BToronto Blue Jays
April 4, 2021
Guerrero went 1-for-4 with a home run in Sunday's win over the Yankees.
ANALYSIS
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