Justin Dunn
Justin Dunn
26-Year-Old PitcherSP
Seattle Mariners
60-Day IL
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 2/1/2022
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Regression to Dunn's 2.70 ERA in 2019 was expected, and while 2020's 4.34 mark appears to a decent landing, he pitched a lot worse than that number suggests. Dunn was saved by a .179 BABIP -- a very low number despite second percentile average exit velocity and 17th percentile hard-hit rate. His 15.7% walk rate was within four percentage points of his K%. Rash judgements on a two-month sample are unwise, but ignoring Dunn's underlying metrics is also not advised. Not only does he still need to hone control, but Dunn needs to be wary of an impending correction toward the hit rate posted early in his MLB career. Armed with a 93-mph fastball with below-average spin, the right-hander has little margin for error. Dunn figures to take the ball a lot for a rebuilding Mariners club in 2021, but he does not project to be a big part of that rebuild. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#563
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in March of 2021.
Shut down for season
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 17, 2021
Dunn (shoulder) was sent back to Seattle for an MRI on Friday and will not pitch again this season, Corey Brock of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Dunn was working his way back from a shoulder strain that has kept him sidelined since mid-June. He threw just four pitches in a rehab game for Triple-A Tacoma on Thursday before exiting with an apparent setback, the severity of which should become clear following his MRI.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
79
Last 10 Games
78
Last 5 Games
73
How many pitches does Justin Dunn generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Dunn generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .179 220 49 48 30 3 2 9
Since 2019vs Right .190 204 41 19 34 4 0 5
2021vs Left .200 117 26 21 19 1 1 5
2021vs Right .202 101 23 8 18 3 0 1
2020vs Left .159 91 22 19 11 2 1 4
2020vs Right .187 85 14 10 14 1 0 4
2019vs Left .000 12 1 8 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right .133 18 4 1 2 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-39%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 2.86 1.18 44.0 2 2 0 9.2 6.3 1.2
Since 2019Away 4.70 1.47 53.2 2 2 0 7.5 6.0 1.3
2021Home 2.70 1.20 23.1 0 1 0 10.4 6.2 0.8
2021Away 4.67 1.41 27.0 1 2 0 7.3 4.3 1.3
2020Home 2.81 1.06 16.0 2 1 0 7.9 5.1 2.3
2020Away 5.11 1.50 24.2 1 0 0 8.0 7.3 1.5
2019Home 3.86 1.50 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 11.6 0.0
2019Away 0.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Dunn compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.69
 
K/9
8.8
 
BB/9
5.2
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
93.7 mph
 
ERA
3.75
 
WHIP
1.31
 
BABIP
.250
 
GB/FB
0.68
 
Left On Base
78.1%
 
Exit Velocity
80.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.9%
 
Spin Rate
2420 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.5%
 
Swinging Strike
9.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Dunn
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120 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2017
Dunn spent the majority of the season with Double-A Arkansas in his first year in the Mariners organization, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts. His underlying numbers were strong as well, as he struck out 28.6% of opposing batters while walking just 7.1%. Dunn was given his first big-league callup in September, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings but also walking nine batters. He hasn't had significant walk issues in the minors, but his command was never expected to be better than average. Dunn projects as a fourth or fifth starter, as his low-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup are average pitches at best, while his low-80s slider could be above-average. He has not pitched at all at Triple-A, but given the Mariners' youth movement and lack of rotation depth, he will probably enter spring training as a favorite to break camp in the big-league rotation.
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020.
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Feels good after latest sim game
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 15, 2021
Dunn (shoulder) reported feeling good Tuesday after throwing a simulated game Monday and will soon embark on a rehab assignment, the team's official site reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rehab assignment looming
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 14, 2021
Dunn (shoulder) threw another simulated game Monday and will likely head out on a short rehab assignment if he experiences no residual effects Tuesday, the team's official site reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws simulated game
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 10, 2021
Dunn (shoulder) threw a simulated game Friday, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing rehab assignment
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 7, 2021
Dunn (shoulder inflammation) is nearing a rehab stint and will pitch out of the bullpen if he is able to return to the big-league club this season, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws bullpen session
PSeattle Mariners
Shoulder
September 2, 2021
Dunn (shoulder) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, the team's official site reports.
ANALYSIS
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