Justin Dunn
25-Year-Old PitcherSP
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Regression to Dunn's 2.70 ERA in 2019 was expected, and while 2020's 4.34 mark appears to a decent landing, he pitched a lot worse than that number suggests. Dunn was saved by a .179 BABIP -- a very low number despite second percentile average exit velocity and 17th percentile hard-hit rate. His 15.7% walk rate was within four percentage points of his K%. Rash judgements on a two-month sample are unwise, but ignoring Dunn's underlying metrics is also not advised. Not only does he still need to hone control, but Dunn needs to be wary of an impending correction toward the hit rate posted early in his MLB career. Armed with a 93-mph fastball with below-average spin, the right-hander has little margin for error. Dunn figures to take the ball a lot for a rebuilding Mariners club in 2021, but he does not project to be a big part of that rebuild. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#565
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in March of 2021.
Picks up first win of season
PSeattle Mariners
April 15, 2021
Dunn (1-0) tossed five innings of one-run ball in Game 2 of Thursday's doubleheader against the Orioles, allowing two hits and two walks and striking out six to earn the win.
ANALYSIS
Dunn made his first start since April 7 and looked far more composed this time around. He had walked eight across 4.2 innings in his previous outing, but the right-hander showed much better control this time around. He still owns an ugly 9:10 K:BB through 9.2 innings, but this performance was a step in the right direction.
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Pitching Stats
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2021
2020
2019
2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
81
Last 10 Games
81
Last 5 Games
81
How many pitches does Justin Dunn generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Dunn generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-16%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-21%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .141 130 29 35 13 2 1 5
Since 2019vs Right .167 118 21 13 17 2 0 4
2021vs Left .105 27 6 8 2 0 0 1
2021vs Right .083 15 3 2 1 1 0 0
2020vs Left .159 91 22 19 11 2 1 4
2020vs Right .187 85 14 10 14 1 0 4
2019vs Left .000 12 1 8 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right .133 18 4 1 2 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-17%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-69%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 3.55 1.30 25.1 2 1 0 7.5 8.2 1.4
Since 2019Away 4.26 1.42 31.2 2 0 0 8.2 7.1 1.4
2021Home 5.79 1.93 4.2 0 0 0 5.8 15.4 0.0
2021Away 1.80 0.80 5.0 1 0 0 10.8 3.6 1.8
2020Home 2.81 1.06 16.0 2 1 0 7.9 5.1 2.3
2020Away 5.11 1.50 24.2 1 0 0 8.0 7.3 1.5
2019Home 3.86 1.50 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 11.6 0.0
2019Away 0.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Dunn compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.90
 
K/9
8.4
 
BB/9
9.3
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
93.9 mph
 
ERA
3.72
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.099
 
GB/FB
0.67
 
Left On Base
77.6%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
10.9%
 
Spin Rate
2510 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
26.1%
 
Swinging Strike
8.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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2 days ago
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5 days ago
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5 days ago
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6 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2017
Dunn spent the majority of the season with Double-A Arkansas in his first year in the Mariners organization, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts. His underlying numbers were strong as well, as he struck out 28.6% of opposing batters while walking just 7.1%. Dunn was given his first big-league callup in September, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings but also walking nine batters. He hasn't had significant walk issues in the minors, but his command was never expected to be better than average. Dunn projects as a fourth or fifth starter, as his low-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup are average pitches at best, while his low-80s slider could be above-average. He has not pitched at all at Triple-A, but given the Mariners' youth movement and lack of rotation depth, he will probably enter spring training as a favorite to break camp in the big-league rotation.
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020.
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Start pushed to Thursday
PSeattle Mariners
April 14, 2021
Dunn's scheduled start Wednesday was postponed and he is scheduled to start Game 2 of Thursday's doubleheader against the Orioles.
ANALYSIS
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Wild in no-decision
PSeattle Mariners
April 7, 2021
Dunn hurled 4.2 innings against the White Sox on Wednesday, allowing three runs on one hit and eight walks while striking out three. He did not factor in the decision.
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Named sixth starter
PSeattle Mariners
March 27, 2021
Manager Scott Servais announced Saturday that Dunn will open the season as Seattle's No. 6 starter, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
ANALYSIS
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Mixed bag in final spring start
PSeattle Mariners
March 25, 2021
Dunn recorded seven strikeouts but gave up four earned runs on five hits and three walks over 3.1 innings in a Cactus League loss to the Cubs on Wednesday.
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One spring audition remaining
PSeattle Mariners
March 23, 2021
Dunn's Wednesday outing against the Cubs will represent his final spring opportunity to make a case for the No. 6 role in the starting rotation, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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