Justin Dunn
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Dunn spent the majority of the season with Double-A Arkansas in his first year in the Mariners organization, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts. His underlying numbers were strong as well, as he struck out 28.6% of opposing batters while walking just 7.1%. Dunn was given his first big-league callup in September, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings but also walking nine batters. He hasn't had significant walk issues in the minors, but his command was never expected to be better than average. Dunn projects as a fourth or fifth starter, as his low-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup are average pitches at best, while his low-80s slider could be above-average. He has not pitched at all at Triple-A, but given the Mariners' youth movement and lack of rotation depth, he will probably enter spring training as a favorite to break camp in the big-league rotation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#578
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$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in September of 2019.
Tagged with loss
PSeattle Mariners
August 5, 2020
Dunn (0-1) was tagged with the loss Tuesday against the Angels after allowing three runs on three hits and four walks across four innings. He struck out four.
ANALYSIS
Dunn gave up two homers in the first inning -- a solo shot to Mike Trout and a two-run blast to Albert Pujols -- and that would set the tone for the rest of his outing. He has now given up five earned runs on four hits in seven innings across two starts this season, although three of those hits have left the ballpark. His next start is scheduled for Aug. 10 at Texas.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
71
Last 10 Games
71
Last 5 Games
71
How many pitches does Justin Dunn generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Dunn generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-61%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-57%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2018
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .067 26 3 11 1 0 0 1
Since 2018vs Right .172 36 8 5 5 0 0 2
2020vs Left .091 14 2 3 1 0 0 1
2020vs Right .214 18 4 4 3 0 0 2
2019vs Left .000 12 1 8 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right .133 18 4 1 2 0 0 0
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-31%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-11%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2018
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 5.19 1.62 8.2 0 1 0 8.3 10.4 2.1
Since 2018Away 3.60 1.60 5.0 0 0 0 5.4 10.8 1.8
2020Home 6.75 1.75 4.0 0 1 0 9.0 9.0 4.5
2020Away 6.00 1.33 3.0 0 0 0 6.0 9.0 3.0
2019Home 3.86 1.50 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 11.6 0.0
2019Away 0.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Dunn compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.86
 
K/9
7.7
 
BB/9
9.0
 
HR/9
3.9
 
Fastball
91.5 mph
 
ERA
6.43
 
WHIP
1.57
 
BABIP
.068
 
GB/FB
1.00
 
Left On Base
73.5%
 
Exit Velocity
87.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
13.3%
 
Spin Rate
2211 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
46.7%
 
Swinging Strike
5.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Dunn
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2017
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020.
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Gives up three runs
PSeattle Mariners
July 30, 2020
Dunn didn't factor into the decision in Wednesday's 10-7 win over the Angels. He gave up three runs (two earned) on one hit and three walks while fanning two across three innings.
ANALYSIS
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Opens year as sixth starter
PSeattle Mariners
July 27, 2020
Dunn is scheduled to make his first start of the season Wednesday against the Angels, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Encouraging results in start
PSeattle Mariners
July 17, 2020
Dunn, who recorded five strikeouts over three innings in Thursday's intrasquad game, focused on his breaking pitches with considerable success, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports. "It was shaky last week," Dunn said of his slider and curveball. "I wasn't too happy about that. It's something I take pride in being able to spin the ball when I want to. I was able to lock in the routine with Woody (pitching coach Pete Woodworth) and was able to work on both pitches and felt like I executed both pretty well today."
ANALYSIS
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Throws live BP in camp
PSeattle Mariners
July 5, 2020
Dunn threw a 20-pitch live batting practice session against Dee Gordon and other teammates during Saturday's summer camp session and was particularly impressive with his breaking pitch, Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN Seattle reports. "It's a big year for Justin," said manager Scott Servais. "I like where he is at; he knows what is ahead of him. I think the fact that we are going to go with a six-man rotation gives him an opportunity to make 10 starts."
ANALYSIS
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Rotation chances boosted
PSeattle Mariners
June 25, 2020
Dunn is much more likely to open the 2020 regular season in the starting rotation now that expanded rosters are official, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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