Dylan Carlson

23-Year-Old OutfielderOF

St. Louis Cardinals

2022 Stats

AVG

.221

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2022 Fantasy Outlook

Many prospects cruising through Double A and Triple A when they're 20 years old are overmatched in the majors if they debut the next season. Such was the case for Carlson in 2020 before he picked things up down the stretch. Carlson's follow-up was much better as he demonstrated many of the skills earning him top prospect status. Specifically, Carlson improved his plate discipline by walking more and fanning less. His overall average exit velocity was only 29th percentile, but it was closer to league average on flyballs, supporting power. A low exit velocity on grounders combined with 73rd percentile sprint speed and a little good fortune yielded a .250 BABIP on groundballs, 11 points above average. It all added up to a 113 wRC+, impressive for a 22-year-old. Carlson has 25-15 upside, just temper expectations this season. Pay for moderate growth, likely from continued improvement with his plate discipline. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#167

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats B

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 205

DOB 10/23/1998

Born Elk Grove, CA

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2016 STL

Hammers homer in loss

OFSt. Louis Cardinals

May 13, 2022

Carlson went 1-for-4 with a solo home run in Thursday's 3-2 loss to the Orioles.

ANALYSIS
Carlson took Orioles reliever Cionel Perez deep in the seventh inning to get the Cardinals on the board. The outfielder has hit safely in seven straight games, going 9-for-25 (.360) in that span as he looks to steer out of a slow start to the year. He's up to a .225/.273/.360 slash line with two homers, nine RBI, 12 runs scored, a stolen base and seven doubles in 121 plate appearances.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+25%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+21%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+25%

OPS vs LHP

2020

+10%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.857	184	28	6	24	0	.315	.366	.491
Since 2020vs Right	.684	668	71	16	62	4	.228	.304	.380
2022vs Left	.701	32	5	1	2	0	.258	.281	.419
2022vs Right	.580	102	7	1	8	1	.207	.265	.315
2021vs Left	.923	138	22	5	19	0	.341	.394	.528
2021vs Right	.739	481	57	13	46	2	.243	.328	.411
2020vs Left	.558	14	1	0	3	0	.182	.286	.273
2020vs Right	.508	85	7	2	8	1	.173	.212	.296
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+17%

OPS at Home

2022

+8%

OPS on Road

2021

+18%

OPS at Home

2020

+50%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.794	419	51	12	51	2	.280	.339	.455
Since 2020Away	.678	449	51	11	40	2	.221	.304	.374
2022Home	.588	72	5	1	6	1	.200	.250	.338
2022Away	.635	62	7	1	4	0	.241	.290	.345
2021Home	.847	294	40	9	35	1	.306	.364	.483
2021Away	.718	325	39	9	30	1	.227	.324	.394
2020Home	.779	53	6	2	10	0	.250	.321	.458
2020Away	.520	62	5	1	6	1	.172	.210	.310
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Stat Review

How does Dylan Carlson compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a batter in feet per second.

BB/K

0.36

BB Rate

5.6%

K Rate

15.4%

BABIP

.248

ISO

.122

AVG

.221

OBP

.273

SLG

.344

OPS

.616

wOBA

.269

Exit Velocity

81.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

23.4%

Barrels/PA

3.7%

Sprint Speed

24.1

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Dylan Carlson Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2021

2020

The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. He eventually got the call in mid-August when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. He struggled and was demoted in early September. While it's damning with faint praise, Carlson was the Cardinals' best hitter after getting recalled Sept. 18. Including three playoff games, he hit .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 PA. Strikeouts were still an issue over that stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game. He should open the year with a prime lineup spot and everyday role.

In just one season, Carlson went from an interesting sleeper in the Cardinals' system to a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, and he is now knocking on the door of the majors. He was the second-youngest player and second-best hitter (142 wRC+) in the Texas League, and his 10.8 BB% and 20.3 K% are marks we would expect from a player several years older. Carlson's 33.3 Oppo% and 25.9 LD% on that circuit were also elite marks and his above-average speed led to 18 steals on 25 attempts. The switch hitter posted the best statistics of his career in 18 games at Triple-A, but there was obviously a lot of noise in those numbers. Carlson has a chance to be a plus contributor in all five roto categories, but it's his high floor that makes him so appealing in dynasty and redraft leagues. Regardless of who the Cardinals open the year with in the outfield, Carlson should force the issue sometime in the first half.

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