Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2021 Fantasy Outlook
By FIP, Castillo had a better season than former teammate and NL Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer. The surface numbers lagged way behind his indicators early on, and while they caught up to an extent, Castillo still finished well below where the underlying numbers say he deserved to be. Castillo's changeup is one of the most dominant pitches in baseball, and it plays off a heater that sits 97 mph. His slider has developed into a strong offering, making Castillo something close to a nightmare for right-handed hitters. Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati has not been a problem for Castillo, historically, as he has an ERA nearly a run better at home (3.18) than on the road (4.15 ) in his career. The Reds do not project to be any better with the team cutting costs this offseason, but Castillo is still only 28 years old and this is unquestionably an ace profile on its own merit. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#28
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $4.2 million contract with the Reds in January of 2021.
No trade imminent
PCincinnati Reds
January 17, 2021
Reds GM Nick Krall issued a statement suggesting that rumors of Castillo being traded to the Yankees are 'completely false,' Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports. "[The rumors] are completely false," Krall texted. "We intend to have [Castillo] as a member of our rotation for 2021."
ANALYSIS
While Krall has asserted that he'll listen to offers for nearly everyone, it doesn't really make sense to trade Castillo, absent an overwhelming package. He's making only $4.2 million with the Reds in 2021 and won't become a free agent for another three seasons.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
97
Last 10 Games
97
Last 5 Games
97
How many pitches does Luis Castillo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luis Castillo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-17%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-4%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-30%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .244 902 236 91 194 46 2 35
Since 2018vs Right .202 865 240 61 160 32 0 20
2020vs Left .231 139 37 17 28 7 1 4
2020vs Right .221 139 48 7 29 6 0 1
2019vs Left .209 412 123 45 75 17 1 13
2019vs Right .194 369 103 34 64 12 0 9
2018vs Left .289 351 76 29 91 22 0 18
2018vs Right .203 357 89 20 67 14 0 10
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-50%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 3.13 1.03 238.1 16 13 0 10.4 2.5 1.1
Since 2018Away 4.45 1.38 192.0 13 13 0 9.6 4.0 1.2
2020Home 2.05 1.08 30.2 2 1 0 12.3 2.3 1.2
2020Away 4.12 1.35 39.1 2 5 0 10.8 3.7 0.2
2019Home 3.15 0.99 125.2 8 7 0 9.9 2.9 0.9
2019Away 3.88 1.43 65.0 7 1 0 12.2 5.4 1.4
2018Home 3.51 1.07 82.0 6 5 0 10.5 2.0 1.5
2018Away 5.03 1.36 87.2 4 7 0 7.1 3.2 1.4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Luis Castillo compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.71
 
K/9
11.4
 
BB/9
3.1
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
97.5 mph
 
ERA
3.21
 
WHIP
1.23
 
BABIP
.345
 
GB/FB
3.09
 
Left On Base
69.6%
 
Exit Velocity
80.5 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
2.3%
 
Spin Rate
2116 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
20.1%
 
Swinging Strike
16.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Castillo
RotoWire Roundtable: Top 300 Composite Rankings
Yesterday
Individual sets of Top 350s from Jeff Erickson, Todd Zola, Clay Link and Erik Halterman are compiled into a Top 300 composite ranking for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL Central
3 days ago
Brad Johnson dives into pitching in the National League Central, where in Cincinnati, Luis Castillo will look to fill the void left behind by Trevor Bauer.
Spring Training Job Battles: Let the Competition Begin
9 days ago
Erik Halterman analyzes the top job battles on every major league team, including a look at the Mets' closer situation. Will Edwin Diaz regain the job this season?
The Z Files: Changing Wins to Innings and Saves to Solds
9 days ago
Todd Zola examines the impact of new scoring categories on the pitching side, including the rise in value of top set-up men like Tyler Duffey.
Farm Futures: Dynasty Rankings Update
18 days ago
James Anderson breaks down his dynasty rankings update, including his controversial rank of Mets slugger Pete Alonso, and provides updates on a couple big dynasty leagues he participates in.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
Spring training can be helpful in evaluating a pitcher, but it does come with some risks. Castillo sported a 12.46 ERA over four Cactus League appearances amid reports that his velocity was down. It turned out that Castillo was working on improving his slider, rather than relying more on his two best pitches, his changeup and four-seamer. Given the disparity between Castllo's first half of 2018 when his velocity was down to his second-half when the velocity was up, it was natural to be concerned. That concern cost you a breakout if you downgraded him accordingly. Castillo's fastball velocity (96.5 mph) actually improved, allowing him to post video-game quality results with his changeup (48% whiff rate, .193 WOBA against). If you want to look for a concern, Castillo's August and September were shaky, and he was limited to five starts in September.
Usually it's easy to dismiss first-half/second-half splits, but in the case of Castillo, it's hard to overlook his superb second half, especially when there's an easy explanation for his improvement. Before the All-Star break, Castillo had a 5.49 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 21.5 K% and 7.9 BB% over 103.1 innings. In 66.1 innings after the break, Castillo turned in a 2.44 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, 26.3 K% and 5.3 BB%. The difference? Every one of Castillo's pitches recovered most of the velocity that he had in 2017 but had lost during the first half of 2018. Take his four-seamer as an example -- in September 2017 it clocked in at 97.3 mph, but in April it was down to 95.4 mph, and stayed down at that level until late July/early August, when it got back up to 96.6 mph (velocity readings courtesy of Baseball Savant). Even with the strong second half, Castillo didn't earn his NFBC ADP of 103.3, but he might exceed that in 2019 if he maintains his second-half velocity.
The Reds had been trying to develop a frontline starter to fill Johnny Cueto's shoes for a couple years, but it came to them in the unlikely form of Castillo, who was involved two trades and one rescinded trade before reaching the majors. He debuted after just 94.1 innings at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A. Teams didn't figure him out as the year went on -- his ERA actually improved each month from July to September. Castillo was particularly dominant away from Great American Ball Park (2.84 ERA in 44.1 innings). His .247 BABIP, which would have been fifth lowest among qualified starters, will clearly regress. While we can't bank on a repeat of his rookie ratios, he should still be very effective in year two. He throws three pitches -- a fastball that averages 97.5 mph and tops out around 99-100 mph, an out-of-this world changeup and a rapidly improving slider. He has the stuff, command and size (6-foot-2, 190 pounds) to pitch atop a rotation.
Best known for being traded to San Diego and then sheepishly traded back to Miami when Colin Rea's elbow gave out after the trade, Castillo has emerged as one of the best prospects in a desolate Marlins system. He sports an 80-grade fastball with an above-average changeup and two breaking balls that are works in progress, but there is still plenty of time for refinement in the upper levels of the minors. That incomplete repertoire was still more than enough to dominate Florida State League hitters. The lack of strikeouts despite cheddar that touches triple digits illustrates his lack of a consistent out pitch, so he will need to continue to improve those offerings if he hopes to have success as a starter at Double-A and Triple-A. He is relatively new to starting, having worked exclusively as a reliever from 2012 to 2014, so becoming more adept at sequencing will also help him miss more bats. This is an arm that could take a big jump up prospect lists this year, especially now that he's in a Reds' system in the middle of a complete rebuild.
More Fantasy News
Reaches deal with Reds
PCincinnati Reds
January 15, 2021
Castillo signed a one-year, $4.2 million contract with the Reds on Friday to avoid arbitration, Robert Murray of FanSided.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Outdueled in elimination game
PCincinnati Reds
October 2, 2020
Castillo struck out seven batters over 5.1 innings in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series on Thursday, allowing just one run on six hits and a walk, but he picked up the loss thanks to an even better performance from Atlanta starter Ian Anderson.
ANALYSIS
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Takes loss in Minnesota
PCincinnati Reds
September 26, 2020
Castillo (4-6) allowed four runs on six hits over four innings in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. He struck out four and did not issue a walk.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine, improves to 4-5
PCincinnati Reds
September 21, 2020
Castillo (4-5) picked up the win Monday against the Brewers, allowing one run on four hits and three walks across 6.2 innings. He struck out nine.
ANALYSIS
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Fans 10 in win
PCincinnati Reds
September 16, 2020
Castillo (3-5) allowed three hits and one walk over seven scoreless innings in a win over the Pirates on Wednesday. He struck out 10.
ANALYSIS
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