MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, October 16
October baseball is the best baseball, and we are right in the thick of the Championship Series. In the American League, the road team has dominated all three games, with the Seattle Mariners holding a 2-1 series lead, while the National League has been ruled by the Los Angeles Dodgers' pitching. Will we continue to see those trends, or might there be some surprises in store? Let's jump right into Thursday's action!
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Best MLB Bets Thursday
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers 
Under 8 Total Runs (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
When this series was finalized, I set the Over/Under on the number of runs the Brewers would score in this series at 5.5. Stop me if you've heard this before: they've been a fun team that was built for the regular season grind, but not for postseason success. That's Milwaukee baseball in a nutshell. Pitching rules in the playoffs, and the obvious lineup holes that Milwaukee has are being exploited, and I don't see that changing Thursday night.
Dodgers RHP Tyler Glasnow hasn't given up an earned run since September 20, and he's given up one or less runs in five of his last six appearances. The L.A. bats have been relatively quiet in this series, as well, and Brewers veteran LHP Jose Quintana should do enough to hold them at bay, but I don't see the Brewers scoring much more than one or two runs. This feels like a 4-1 Dodgers' win.
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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners 
Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Offense has dominated this series, and I see that trend continuing. Toronto is rolling out veteran RHP Max Scherzer to start Thursday night, and while Mad Max has plenty of postseason chops, the fact is he has been awful down the stretch. Scherzer has given up four or more runs in five of his last six appearances, and the Mariners lineup is the best he's seen during that stretch.
While it is entirely possible the Mariners will take care of the Over on their own, the Blue Jays lineup should contribute as well. Seattle RHP Luis Castillo is red-hot, so I'm looking for the total to come down to a few late runs against both bullpens.
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Seattle Mariners ML (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I appreciate the respect for the warrior that is Mad Max, but I still find value in the Mariners here. At some point, the home team is going to win a game in this series, and I think this is one of them.
Toronto came out with desperation Wednesday in Game 3, and it did what it needed to do get a win, but I think this game sets up for a loud response from Seattle.
As I mentioned above, Castillo has been lights-out of late, with six straight appearances giving up one or less runs, and while the Blue Jays lineup is the best he's faced in that stretch, Castillo will do what is needed to put his team in position to win.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Brewers-Dodgers Under 8 (-110 @ FanDuel)
- Blue Jays-Mariners Over 7.5 (-105 @ FanDuel)
- Mariners Moneyline (-120 @ FanDuel)
