We have a two-game LCS slate Thursday, and there are potentially profitable PrizePicks opportunities in both contests. We highlight four of our favorites below:
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Tyler Glasnow, LAD vs. MIL: More Than 16 Pitching Outs
Glasnow took the hill in Game 4 of the NLDS last Thursday with plenty of rest, and his arm clearly reflected it. The big right-hander blanked the Philadelphia Phillies over six innings while recording eight strikeouts, and he's now had another full week to rest up for this NLCS showdown against a Brewers team whose current hitters he's stymied to the tune of a .141 average and .510 OPS across 79 career encounters.
Milwaukee managed to squeeze by the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS, but had they not laid a strong foundation over the first two games, that wouldn't have come to pass considering how unproductive their offense has been since Game 3 of that series.
The Brew Crew has just eight combined runs over the last five postseason contests – including just one apiece in the first two installments of the NLCS – and Glasnow posted a 2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 over 61.2 home innings during the regular season in addition to the aforementioned six-inning shutout of the Phillies last week.
Andy Pages, LAD vs. MIL: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Pages has been unable to follow up a breakout regular season that saw him post a .272 average, .774 OPS and 55 XBH, including 27 homers, with much postseason success. The slugging outfielder did get on base twice in Game 2 via a double and hit-by-pitch, but he's still sporting a tiny .069 average and .232 OPS across his first 31 playoff plate appearances this fall.
However, Pages is simply too talented a hitter to remain mired in a slump much longer, and he should have a good chance to make some noise against Brewers southpaw Jose Quintana on Thursday. Pages has tormented Quintana for a .400 average with a pair of doubles in 10 career plate appearances, and he posted a .380 average, .916 OPS and .398 wOBA versus lefties at home in the regular season.
Pages also averaged 2.0 hits + runs + RBI per game during the regular season, and Quintana is sporting a 5.82 ERA in the 17 innings he's pitched since the start of September. Los Angeles has a healthy projected total of 4.7 runs Thursday, lending further credence to this wager.
J.P. Crawford, SEA vs. TOR: More Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Crawford has put together a relatively middling postseason so far, as he sports a .241 average but just a .595 OPS across 30 plate appearances, but this is a very manageable prop for him. He's drawing a starting pitcher matchup he's comfortable with. Crawford has frequently solved Max Scherzer in past encounters, producing a .429 average and 1.071 OPS against the legendary right-hander across eight career encounters.
Scherzer has yet to pitch in the postseason following a rough finish to the regular season, one in which he generated a 10.20 ERA across the 15 innings covering four September starts. Scherzer has certainly had his share of postseason successes, but his last two playoff runs in 2022 (Mets) and 2023 (Rangers) were far from smooth (14.1 IP, 18 H, 14 ER).
Scherzer also had a heap of trouble versus left-handed hitters on the road this season, pitching to a .273 BAA, .380 wOBA, 1.8 HR/9 and 5.29 xFIP in that split. With Seattle projected for a solid 4.4 runs (up from an open of 4.1), Crawford should have a chance at clearing this very low bar.
Alejandro Kirk, TOR at SEA: More Than 0.5 Total Bases
Kirk was one of several Blue Jays bats that sprung to life in Game 3, as he went 2-for-4 with a homer, three RBI, two total runs and a walk. Kirk now has three round-trippers this postseason and 17 total bases in seven playoff appearances.
The slugging backstop averaged 1.5 total bases per game during the regular season, and Thursday, he's facing a starting pitcher in Luis Castillo that he's tagged for a .500 average and seven total bases over eight career plate appearances.
The righty-swinging Kirk was also at his best in same-handed matchups on the road during the regular season, posting a .305 average with 12 XBH, a modest 14.0 percent strikeout rate and .347 wOBA in that split.
