Rich Hill
Rich Hill
40-Year-Old PitcherSP
Tampa Bay Rays
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Hill was set to miss the first few months of the season after recovering from elbow surgery, but instead was ready for the start of the delayed season in July. He was impressive in eight starts with a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but his underlying metrics were a cause for concern. Hill averaged a career-low 87.7 mph fastball, had a near career-low 7.2 K/9 and may have been lucky by allowing just three home runs (7.9 HR/FB). He also missed time with shoulder fatigue and needed extra rest often between starts at age 40. He's crafty enough to help a team at age 41 next season, but it's hard to expect him to stay healthy for a full season and there's significant risk it may have been his last hurrah. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#449
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Rays in February of 2021.
Checks out well facing hitters
PTampa Bay Rays
March 2, 2021
Hill gave a solid accounting of himself in a live batting practice session Sunday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The veteran southpaw is being counted on to help stabilize a starting rotation that lost both Blake Snell and Charlie Morton this offseason, so any indications the soon-to-be 41-year-old is already rounding into shape is certainly encouraging. Manager Kevin Cash reported Hill spun his breaking balls from different arm angles and looked "totally game-ready", but it's likely he gets another crack at pitching to his own teammates before making his Grapefruit League debut.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
77
Last 10 Games
77
Last 5 Games
84
How many pitches does Rich Hill generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Rich Hill generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-38%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-18%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .198 218 47 20 38 6 0 7
Since 2018vs Right .227 706 202 53 144 29 3 26
2020vs Left .143 16 2 2 2 0 0 0
2020vs Right .229 119 25 12 24 5 0 3
2019vs Left .192 58 15 5 10 1 0 1
2019vs Right .233 184 57 13 38 6 0 9
2018vs Left .206 144 30 13 26 5 0 6
2018vs Right .223 403 120 28 82 18 3 14
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-11%
ERA on Road
2020
 
 
-65%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 3.48 1.19 116.1 9 6 0 9.4 2.6 1.5
Since 2018Away 3.08 1.08 108.0 8 2 0 10.6 3.3 1.1
2020Home 4.29 1.38 21.0 2 1 0 7.3 4.3 1.3
2020Away 1.50 0.92 12.0 0 1 0 7.5 3.0 0.0
2019Home 2.53 1.00 32.0 2 1 0 9.8 1.7 1.7
2019Away 2.36 1.28 26.2 2 0 0 12.5 4.1 1.4
2018Home 3.69 1.22 63.1 5 4 0 9.9 2.4 1.6
2018Away 3.63 1.04 69.1 6 1 0 10.4 3.1 1.2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Rich Hill compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.82
 
K/9
7.2
 
BB/9
4.0
 
HR/9
0.7
 
Fastball
87.7 mph
 
ERA
3.03
 
WHIP
1.16
 
BABIP
.243
 
GB/FB
1.36
 
Left On Base
78.4%
 
Exit Velocity
79.3 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.7%
 
Spin Rate
2636 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
18.0%
 
Swinging Strike
6.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Durability issues reared their ugly head for Hill again in 2019, as he started just 13 games due to injuries that lingered throughout most of the second half of the season. After undergoing Primary Revision surgery in October, Hill is expected to miss the first half of 2020. When he was able to take the mound in 2019, Hill was effective, recording a 2.45 ERA with a 72:18 K:BB in 58.2 innings. Even at age 39, Hill had a league-best 2,724 rpm spin rate on his pitches, compensating for modest fastball velocity (90.3 mph). A lot of the damage against him was done via the long ball, with a bloated 22.2% HR/FB rate being partially to blame. He recorded a 10.7% swinging-strike rate, his sixth straight year in double digits. Now with the Twins on a one-year deal, Hill should have a rotation spot waiting for him, but there will be nothing actionable in our game until he heads out on a minor-league rehab assignment.
Hill posted his highest ERA in a 100-plus-inning season since 2007 and spent 53 days on the disabled list before June 19 with -- you guessed it -- finger issues (cracked nail, blister). His prolonged absence turned out to be a blessing as well as a curse, however, as he discovered and corrected a mechanical flaw that helped him regain the elite spin on his curveball. In his final 108 regular-season frames, Hill pitched to a 3.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 while going 10-3. He had a career-best first-pitch strike percentage (65.3), which helped his sequencing. Considering the lefty's shaky health and Los Angeles' micromanagement of his workload, the 39-year-old's fantasy shareholders must prepare to backfill at least several starts. They also shouldn't ignore his two-year increase in home-run rate (1.36 HR/9 last season). That said, few midrange starters match his strikeout ability on a per-start basis.
Since unveiling a Statcast-breaking curveball with the Red Sox in 2015, Hill has combined for a 2.65 ERA, 10.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 275 innings. For two-plus seasons, that is a light workload; his clubs have generally handled him conservatively and he infamously dealt with a blister issue which lingered from summer 2016 into the 2017 regular season. The Dodgers can afford to preserve the soon-to-be 38-year-old southpaw given their pitching depth, but Hill provides borderline elite numbers when on the mound, making up for the limited workload. Keep in mind: the shallower your fantasy league, the easier it’ll be to invest in Hill’s lower innings count and replace any missed time with players above replacement level.
In August 2015, Hill was pitching in independent ball after a long, mostly unremarkable career. He hadn't started a major league game since 2009. Then he signed a minor league deal with the Red Sox, impressed in four starts, signed a one-year deal with the Athletics, impressed even more, and was traded to the Dodgers to be their postseason No. 2 starter. By the end of the 2016 season, he had a 2.00 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 24 starts since that Red Sox deal. Unfortunately, he also missed significant time with a groin strain and blisters, the latter of which forced the Dodgers to limit his innings and pull him after seven innings of a potential perfect game. The driving force behind his reinvention is a monster curveball he throws for nearly half his pitches, dropping it in at any point in the count and from multiple arm angles. The injuries remain a major red flag for the 36-year-old, but he's found a unique way to prevent runs at an elite level.
Hill's 2015 season was a nice made-for-TV story. The 36-year-old left-handed reliever began the season in the Nationals' organization, pitching out of the bullpen for their Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. He was released mid-season, hooked on with the Long Island Ducks of the Independent Atlantic League, and then signed with Boston in August. He had success as a starter for Triple-A Pawtucket and then made four strikeout-laden starts in September for the Red Sox. Using primarily a fastball and curveball mix, Hill's performance was a startling display of effectiveness for a guy that hadn't started in the big leagues since 2009. The Red Sox didn't re-sign him during their exclusive window, letting Hill hit the free-agent market where he generated a lot of interest and eventually signed with Oakland. He represents a low-risk, high-reward option as a back-of-the-rotation starter and potential trade bait for the A's if his success continues in the first half of 2016.
Hill made a quicker-than-normal return from Tommy John surgery in 2011 and was pitching well for Boston when a strained flexor muscle in his elbow shut him down for six weeks. The left-hander continued to pitch well upon his return. He finished with 21 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, so he could work his way into a high-leverage relief role.
Hill underwent a transformation to a sidearm delivery, pitching very effectively for both Triple-A Pawtucket and Boston before developing an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery in June. While it's tempting to think cause-and-effect, that the new arm slot caused the injury, Hill's doctor said stress on the elbow is the same regardless of arm slot. Hill will rehab into 2012 and resume his career as a sidearmer out of the pen.
The Orioles coveted Hill for quite some time, but he flopped when he tried to freshen up his career after a change of scenery. An elbow injury early in the season and a shoulder injury late in the season didn't help matters, but his line with Baltimore was so atrocious it is difficult to envision a future in which Hill revives his career.
Coming off a breakout campaign in 2007, Hill was viewed as a potential staff ace last season. But he struggled with his location during spring training and simply never got it back. As a result, he spent most of the year in the minors, but walked nearly a batter an inning at every level. Hill tried to straighten himself out this fall in the Venezuelan League, but the results were just as bad. At this point, it's unclear whether Hill will ever be able to resume his major league career.
Hill solidified his credentials as a borderline major league ace last year, repeating his robust strikeout rate and even cutting down on the walk rate. Hill's weakness is still his propensity to give up flyballs and hence home runs, but even in that department he improved -- upping his G/F ratio from .60 to .83. A lefty with a low-90's fastball and devastating curve, the 28-year-old is just hitting his pitching prime and could join the elite if he continues to improve.
After dominating the high minors but struggling during his major league call-ups, Hill finally broke through in the second half of 2006, striking out 79 batters in 80 major league innings after the All-Star break and walking just 24. Hill's second half ERA was 2.93, and his WHIP just 1.05, but he allowed too many fly balls, 11 of which left the park in the season's final three months. He throws in the low-90s and has a devastating curve ball, but his fly-ball rate could tie his fate to the volatile winds at Wrigley more than we'd like.
Hill posted ungodly strikeout rates in the high minors, but gave up too many home runs. In his 25-inning stint in the majors, Hill struck out nearly a batter an inning, but his walk rate skyrocketed, and he continued to serve up the long ball. Combine that with an unluckily high hit rate, and Hill's first go-around was a rough one. Hill throws in the low-90s and has a sharp-breaking curve ball, but until he learns to command his pitches better, he's a long shot to see a spot in the Cubs rotation.
More Fantasy News
Deal made official
PTampa Bay Rays
February 18, 2021
Hill's one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Rays was made official Wednesday after the two sides agreed to terms Friday, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Agrees to deal with Rays
PTampa Bay Rays
February 12, 2021
Hill signed a one-year, $2.5 million contract with the Rays on Friday, Robert Murray of FanSided.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Not included on wild-card squad
PMinnesota Twins
September 29, 2020
Hill is not part of the Twins' wild-card roster, Brandon Warne of Access Twins reports.
ANALYSIS
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Holds Reds to one run, two hits
PMinnesota Twins
September 27, 2020
Hill allowed one run on two hits and three walks while striking out four over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Reds on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Impressive in loss
PMinnesota Twins
September 18, 2020
Hill (2-2) was charged with the loss against the Cubs on Friday, allowing just one run on three hits and a pair of walks while striking out five across seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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