Alex Kirilloff

26-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Minnesota Twins

Out

Injury Shoulder

Est. Return 2/1/2024

2023 Stats

AVG

.270

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

Unlock Our Projections

2023 Fantasy Outlook

The 2016 first-round draft pick and top prospect has shown flashes of being a productive regular with the bat, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy amid continued wrist issues. His 2022 season ended in July due to a ligament tear in his right wrist that required season-ending surgery. He had soreness in the same wrist in spring training and it required a cortisone shot. When he returned from the injured list, he hit just .172 with a walk and 12 strikeouts over 10 games and was sent to the minors. He then hit .379 with eight homers and a 1.158 OPS in 24 games at Triple-A. Back in the majors in June, he hit .270 with a .715 OPS over 34 games before another setback with his wrist. He decided to have undergo season-ending ulnar shortening surgery, which he hopes will provide a more permanent fit. Amid all the wrist issues, Kiriloff struggled to hit for the sort of power in the majors that many projected during his prospect days, as he owns a .398 slugging percentage over 387 career big-league plate appearances. He also took a step back with just a 3.2 BB% and .282 xwOBA, but it may be hard to read too much into his numbers given his health. Kirilloff is not a speed threat, nor a strong defender at first base or the outfield corners, so he may be have trouble staying in the lineup if his wrist issues continue to suppress his power. If healthy, his minor league pedigree and 2021 underlying numbers (12.8 Barrel%, 43.9 HardHit%) suggest he can be an impact hitter. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#402

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 214

DOB 11/9/1997

Born Pittsburgh, PA

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2016 MIN

No tear in shoulder labrum

1BMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

October 25, 2023

No labrum tear was discovered during Kirilloff's recent shoulder surgery, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
Kirilloff, accordingly, required a less invasive procedure than initially anticipated and seems to have a good shot of being fully recovered by the beginning of spring training next February. The 25-year-old battled right (non-throwing) shoulder issues in the second half of the 2023 regular season and was removed from the Twins' postseason roster before Game 4 of the ALDS because of renewed discomfort. When healthy, he put up a .793 OPS with 11 home runs across 319 plate appearances for the American League Central champions.

Read More News

Batting Stats

Loading Batting Stats...

2023

2022

2021

2023 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Loading Batting Game Log...

2022 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Loading Batting Game Log...

2021 MLB Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Scoring

FanDuel

DraftKings

Yahoo DFS

Loading Batting Game Log...

Minor League Game Log

Calculate Stats Over Time

Just click on any two dates.

Loading Minor League Batting Game Log...

Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+22%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+78%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+36%

OPS vs RHP

2021

+12%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.629	157	14	5	17	0	.207	.287	.343
Since 2021vs Right	.768	548	58	17	79	2	.274	.328	.440
2023vs Left	.482	56	3	2	6	0	.125	.232	.250
2023vs Right	.858	263	32	9	35	1	.300	.373	.485
2022vs Left	.500	30	2	0	0	0	.167	.333	.167
2022vs Right	.680	125	12	3	21	0	.267	.280	.400
2021vs Left	.780	71	9	3	11	0	.279	.310	.471
2021vs Right	.695	160	14	5	23	1	.238	.294	.401
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+1%

OPS at Home

2023

+16%

OPS on Road

2022

+41%

OPS on Road

2021

+62%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.743	358	39	12	51	2	.248	.321	.421
Since 2021Away	.733	347	33	10	45	0	.270	.317	.416
2023Home	.735	157	20	6	21	1	.234	.318	.416
2023Away	.849	162	15	5	20	0	.306	.377	.472
2022Home	.548	86	4	0	9	0	.218	.279	.269
2022Away	.774	69	10	3	12	0	.288	.304	.470
2021Home	.900	115	15	6	21	1	.291	.357	.544
2021Away	.554	116	8	2	13	0	.214	.241	.313
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Alex Kirilloff compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.35

BB Rate

8.8%

K Rate

25.1%

BABIP

.337

ISO

.174

AVG

.270

OBP

.348

SLG

.445

OPS

.793

wOBA

.348

Exit Velocity

88.6 mph

Hard Hit Rate

33.5%

Barrels/PA

4.7%

Expected BA

.261

Expected SLG

.425

Sprint Speed

23.8 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

39.7%

Line Drive %

30.9%

Fly Ball %

29.4%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Alex Kirilloff Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

Loading Advanced Batting Stats...

Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

Loading Games Played by Position...

Loading MLB Defensive Stats...

Batted Ball Stats

Loading Batted Ball Stats...

Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

Want more matchup stats?

View Alex Kirilloff vs. Pitcher Stats

Loading Matchup Stats...

Twins Depth Chart

Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.

Subscribe Now

Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Alex Kirilloff See More

RotoWire Roundtable: Top-300 Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2024

28 days ago

The RotoWire Roundtable is back early this year, featuring an unsurprising consensus top pick followed by plenty of disagreement.

DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Breakdown

53 days ago

Dan Marcus delivers his best DraftKings picks for the pair of ALDS matchups happening Tuesday.

MLB DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, October 7

56 days ago

Chris Morgan has selected some salary savers to start the second round.

The Z Files: NFBC - Postseason Hold 'Em Rankings

57 days ago

Todd Zola offers some strategy tips for the NFBC's Post-Season Hold 'Em Contest and has Mookie Betts at the top of his rankings once he equalizes for games played.

Super Early 2024 Top 300 Rankings

58 days ago

James Anderson put together a super-early top 300 for 2024 redraft fantasy baseball leagues and Ronald Acuna was the undisputed choice atop the rankings.

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

The price on Kirilloff (180 ADP in December) just seems a little off. He was a premium offensive prospect who logged expected stats (.291 xBA, .365 xwOBA, .541 xSLG) in line with his pedigree while showing an innate ability to hit for power to all fields. Kirilloff is not a speed threat, nor a strong defender at first base or the outfield corners, but he is the best left-handed masher on the roster, so he should get all the playing time he can handle. The hottest stretch of Kirilloff's season was a seven-game run with nine hits and four home runs before he suffered a right wrist sprain in early-May. He returned two weeks later and hit .260 with depleted power (.387 SLG) before suffering a ligament tear in that same wrist in late-July that ended his season. Even while playing at less than 100 percent, Kirilloff held his own for a 23-year-old in his first pro season, and the underlying numbers (12.8 Barrel%, 43.9 HardHit%) suggest his results should have been better. Kirilloff could reach another level if he can cut into his 48.8% groundball rate. He should see time in the outfield, at first base and at designated hitter.

The first player ever to record his first MLB hit in the postseason, Kirilloff was bypassed for a promotion all summer before getting his first start in the Twins' final playoff game. We knew he was big-league ready, but that decision cemented the fact that he is an immediate part of the team's future. He reportedly hit close to .500 with plenty of homers and doubles to all fields in informal games at the alternate training site. While Kirilloff doesn't profile as a great defender, the Twins can play him in the outfield corners, first base or DH, so there are many avenues to playing time early in 2021. He struggled against LHP in 2019 (.634 OPS), but logged a .942 OPS against them in 2018 and has a high enough offensive ceiling that a strict platoon seems unlikely. Kirilloff has never logged a K% over 18.5%, and his plus power seems to be trending up, so he could be a four-category stud in short order.

Kirilloff missed all of April and half of June with a right wrist injury that likely affected his performance for much of the season. He posted full-season lows in every notable offensive rate stat, but seemed to return to form later in the year. Including the Southern League playoffs, Kirilloff hit .309/.352/.480 with 11 home runs and a 15.9 K% over his final 60 games. He probably isn't quite the hitter we saw at Low-A (176 wRC+) and High-A (168 wRC+) in 2018, but when healthy, Kirilloff still looks like a future plus hitter with plus power. He was 7-for-13 on stolen-base attempts and may not run at all in the majors. While his arm is good enough for right field, his lack of agility and the makeup of the big-league roster suggests he could break in at first base, where he played 35 games last year. Kirilloff should report to Triple-A and could debut this summer.

Tommy John surgery erased Kirilloff's 2017, but he rewarded dynasty-league managers who stayed the course. Among Midwest League hitters with 250 PA, Kirilloff ranked first in AVG (.333), ISO (.274) and wRC+ (176). In late June, the Twins promoted him to the Florida State League, where he led hitters with 250 PA with a .362 AVG -- his 168 wRC+ ranked third in that subset. Kirlloff rarely strikes out (15.3 K%), hits the ball to all fields (Pull% below 43% at Low-A and High-A) and did not show pronounced splits (.980 OPS against RHP, .942 OPS against LHP). He does not sell out to get to his plus power. Kirilloff is a complete hitter with no obvious flaws who has not yet been taught that baseball is supposed to be hard. Given his success in the lower levels, we should not project significant struggles at Double-A or Triple-A. Calls for a big-league promotion in the second half of 2019 will likely fall on deaf ears, setting the stage for an early 2020 MLB debut.

Kirlloff, the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft, missed the 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The lost year of developmental time hurts, but he should be assigned to Low-A for his age-20 season, so he’s not too far behind his contemporaries. His skill set could be more valuable in fantasy than reality, as he is destined for an outfield corner, but could hit enough to profile in the middle of a big-league lineup. Kirilloff has a smooth swing that generates plus raw power combined with an advanced, patient approach at the plate. He should have no trouble doing damage against righties, and while he only hit .275/.322/.375 with two home runs in 80 at-bats against same-handed pitching in the Appalachian League in 2016, it’s too early to say he is destined for the strong side of a platoon. He still has some room to grow at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds, and may need some time to find his swing again after a year off.

Kirilloff, the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft, had a strong professional debut, albeit in a limited sample size. He hit .306 with seven home runs and a .794 OPS in 55 games for Elizabethton of the rookie Appalachian League. The winner of the Perfect Game All-American Home Run Derby, Kirilloff is a converted pitcher and first baseman with the speed, athleticism and range to stick in an outfield corner. He has a smooth swing combined with an advanced, patient approach at the dish. His left-handed stroke is simple yet effective in terms of launching balls into the outfield seats. Kirilloff still has some room to grow at 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. It remains to be seen if he can be a true 30-homer threat once he matures, but he can certainly spray the ball to all fields. After the top five hitters from last year's draft class (Nick Senzel, Corey Ray, Kyle Lewis, Mickey Moniak, Blake Rutherford), a case could be made for Kirilloff heading that next tier. He should be rostered in all dynasty leagues where 100-plus prospects are owned.

More Fantasy News

Set for shoulder surgery

1BMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

October 13, 2023

Kirilloff will undergo surgery later this month to repair the labrum in his right shoulder, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.

Off roster due to shoulder injury

1BMinnesota Twins

Shoulder

October 11, 2023

Kirilloff was removed from the Twins' ALDS roster Wednesday because of a right shoulder injury, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.

ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.