Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
St. Louis Cardinals
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Carlson's own manager was driving the hype train last spring, predicting big things for a player he envisioned as his leadoff man. That train went off the rails in a hurry as Carlson mostly struggled before landing on the injured list in May with a hamstring strain. A thumb sprain put him back on the shelf in September and the outfielder couldn't really get going in between. In the end, Carlson slashed .236/.316/.380 across 488 plate appearances. After popping 18 home runs in 2021, Carlson managed eight long balls last season to go along with five steals in seven attempts. If there's a silver lining it's that Carlson trimmed his strikeout rate five percentage points to 19.3%. Keep in mind too that Carlson is still only 24 years old and will be for the entirely of the 2023 season. While far too young to give up on, the switch hitter had dramatic platoon splits and the Cardinals may be forced dial back his playing time slightly if his struggles against lefties continue. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a $1.35 million contract with the Cardinals in June of 2016.
On bench Saturday
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
October 1, 2022
Carlson isn't starting Saturday against Pittsburgh, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Carlson started the last six games and hit .217 with four doubles, four runs, an RBI, a walk and five strikeouts. Lars Nootbaar will shift to center field while Alec Burleson starts in right Saturday.
Read More News
Batting Stats
Loading Batting Stats...
2022
2021
2020
2022 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Batting Game Log...
2021 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Batting Game Log...
2020 MLB Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Scoring
FanDuel
DraftKings
Yahoo DFS
FantasyDraft
Head2Head
Loading Batting Game Log...
Minor League Game Log
Calculate Stats Over Time
Just click on any two dates.
Loading Minor League Batting Game Log...
Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
17
7
1
1
5
18
27
2
3
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
12
9
1
6
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+29%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .869 293 44 8 37 2 .317 .377 .492
Since 2020vs Right .676 913 99 20 81 6 .223 .304 .372
2022vs Left .845 141 21 3 15 2 .305 .369 .477
2022vs Right .633 347 35 5 27 3 .207 .294 .339
2021vs Left .923 138 22 5 19 0 .341 .394 .528
2021vs Right .739 481 57 13 46 2 .243 .328 .411
2020vs Left .558 14 1 0 3 0 .182 .286 .273
2020vs Right .508 85 7 2 8 1 .173 .212 .296
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2020
 
 
+50%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .811 577 77 16 71 4 .278 .350 .461
Since 2020Away .663 645 69 13 52 4 .221 .301 .361
2022Home .771 230 31 5 26 3 .249 .339 .431
2022Away .631 258 25 3 16 2 .226 .295 .336
2021Home .847 294 40 9 35 1 .306 .364 .483
2021Away .718 325 39 9 30 1 .227 .324 .394
2020Home .779 53 6 2 10 0 .250 .321 .458
2020Away .520 62 5 1 6 1 .172 .210 .310
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dylan Carlson compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.48
 
BB Rate
9.2%
 
K Rate
19.3%
 
BABIP
.281
 
ISO
.144
 
AVG
.236
 
OBP
.316
 
SLG
.380
 
OPS
.695
 
wOBA
.308
 
Exit Velocity
86.1 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
27.5%
 
Barrels/PA
3.1%
 
Expected BA
.234
 
Expected SLG
.355
 
Sprint Speed
24.1 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
42.3%
 
Line Drive %
20.7%
 
Fly Ball %
37.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
Loading Advanced Batting Stats...
Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
Loading Games Played by Position...
Loading MLB Defensive Stats...
Batted Ball Stats
Loading Batted Ball Stats...
Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
Want more matchup stats?
Loading Matchup Stats...
Our full team depth charts are reserved for RotoWire subscribers.
Subscribe Now
Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Carlson
NFBC Main Event: Fever Dream, Chapter 5
60 days ago
Ryan Rufe walks us through the final few weeks of his first foray into the NFBC Main Event.
MLB: Postseason Cheat Sheet and Strategy
60 days ago
Todd Zola tackles the MLB Postseason Cheat Sheet for RotoWire and discusses his approach to postseason leagues this year.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
71 days ago
Pitching remains Jan Levine's focus for the final week of September.
NFBC Main Event: Fever Dream, Chapter 4
84 days ago
Ryan Rufe goes over the moves he made and the lessons he learned while managing his NFBC Main Event team over the last two months.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
85 days ago
Jan Levine details a few NLers riding late-season surges, including a starter in Philly who's making the most of his opportunities.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
Many prospects cruising through Double A and Triple A when they're 20 years old are overmatched in the majors if they debut the next season. Such was the case for Carlson in 2020 before he picked things up down the stretch. Carlson's follow-up was much better as he demonstrated many of the skills earning him top prospect status. Specifically, Carlson improved his plate discipline by walking more and fanning less. His overall average exit velocity was only 29th percentile, but it was closer to league average on flyballs, supporting power. A low exit velocity on grounders combined with 73rd percentile sprint speed and a little good fortune yielded a .250 BABIP on groundballs, 11 points above average. It all added up to a 113 wRC+, impressive for a 22-year-old. Carlson has 25-15 upside, just temper expectations this season. Pay for moderate growth, likely from continued improvement with his plate discipline.
The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. He eventually got the call in mid-August when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. He struggled and was demoted in early September. While it's damning with faint praise, Carlson was the Cardinals' best hitter after getting recalled Sept. 18. Including three playoff games, he hit .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 PA. Strikeouts were still an issue over that stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game. He should open the year with a prime lineup spot and everyday role.
In just one season, Carlson went from an interesting sleeper in the Cardinals' system to a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, and he is now knocking on the door of the majors. He was the second-youngest player and second-best hitter (142 wRC+) in the Texas League, and his 10.8 BB% and 20.3 K% are marks we would expect from a player several years older. Carlson's 33.3 Oppo% and 25.9 LD% on that circuit were also elite marks and his above-average speed led to 18 steals on 25 attempts. The switch hitter posted the best statistics of his career in 18 games at Triple-A, but there was obviously a lot of noise in those numbers. Carlson has a chance to be a plus contributor in all five roto categories, but it's his high floor that makes him so appealing in dynasty and redraft leagues. Regardless of who the Cardinals open the year with in the outfield, Carlson should force the issue sometime in the first half.
More Fantasy News
Recaptures regular role
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 28, 2022
Carlson will start in right field and bat second in Wednesday's game against the Brewers, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Two doubles, two runs Tuesday
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 27, 2022
Carlson went 2-for-4 with two doubles and two runs scored in Tuesday's victory over the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Double and run in return
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 17, 2022
Carlson went 1-for-4 with one double and one run scored in Saturday's victory over the Reds.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Sitting for nightcap
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 17, 2022
Carlson isn't in the lineup for the second game of Saturday's doubleheader against the Reds.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.
Activated prior to twin bill
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
September 17, 2022
Carlson (thumb) was reinstated from the 10-day injured list Saturday.
ANALYSIS
Subscribe now to instantly reveal our take on this news.