Justin Dunn

Justin Dunn

27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
Out
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 2/1/2023
2023 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Justin Dunn in 2023. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year contract with the Mariners in March of 2021. Traded to the Reds in March of 2022.
Sharp in rehab start
PCincinnati Reds
Shoulder
September 29, 2022
Dunn (shoulder) struck out four over three scoreless innings in his rehab start Tuesday with Triple-A Louisville. He allowed no hits and issued two walks in the 46-pitch outing.
ANALYSIS
According to MLB.com, Reds manager David Bell relayed that Dunn said he felt the best he has at any point this season following Tuesday's rehab appearance, suggesting the right-hander is no longer experiencing any discomfort in his right shoulder. Cincinnati has already set its rotation for the remaining six games of the season, so Dunn will work out of the bullpen once activated from the 15-day injured list. Bell said that Dunn is expected to rejoin the Reds in Chicago over the weekend, so he could be activated at some point during the team's series with the Cubs.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
77
Last 10 Games
77
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does Justin Dunn generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Dunn generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-29%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2020
 
 
-15%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .220 281 57 53 49 8 2 14
Since 2020vs Right .204 251 49 22 45 7 0 11
2022vs Left .322 73 9 13 19 5 0 5
2022vs Right .228 65 12 4 13 3 0 6
2021vs Left .200 117 26 21 19 1 1 5
2021vs Right .202 101 23 8 18 3 0 1
2020vs Left .159 91 22 19 11 2 1 4
2020vs Right .187 85 14 10 14 1 0 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-33%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-18%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-45%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 3.45 1.21 47.0 2 2 0 9.4 5.2 1.9
Since 2020Away 5.16 1.49 75.0 3 5 0 6.8 5.8 1.8
2022Home 7.04 1.57 7.2 0 0 0 9.4 2.3 4.7
2022Away 5.79 1.59 23.1 1 3 0 5.0 5.8 2.7
2021Home 2.70 1.20 23.1 0 1 0 10.4 6.2 0.8
2021Away 4.67 1.41 27.0 1 2 0 7.3 4.3 1.3
2020Home 2.81 1.06 16.0 2 1 0 7.9 5.1 2.3
2020Away 5.11 1.50 24.2 1 0 0 8.0 7.3 1.5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Dunn compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.24
 
K/9
6.1
 
BB/9
4.9
 
HR/9
3.2
 
Fastball
92.2 mph
 
ERA
6.10
 
WHIP
1.58
 
BABIP
.240
 
GB/FB
0.64
 
Left On Base
83.3%
 
Exit Velocity
83.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
12.9%
 
Spin Rate
2291 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
31.5%
 
Swinging Strike
8.7%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Dunn
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
66 days ago
Jan Levine concludes his column for the season with a look at the remaining schedule while also offering potential stash candidates.
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82 days ago
Lucas Giolito may not be having the best season, but Chris Morgan believes a matchup against the Tigers should help his cause.
Yahoo DFS Baseball: Sunday Picks
87 days ago
Chris Morgan likes the surprisingly affordable Bryce Harper against his old team on Sunday's Yahoo MLB slate.
FanDuel MLB: Sunday Targets
87 days ago
Chris Morgan is targeting a couple Brewers bats to take on Justin Dunn and the Reds.
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Breakdown
87 days ago
If you're looking to save some salary on offense, Chris Morgan suggests Nolan Gorman against Mitch Keller and the Pirates.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
Dunn had a solid campaign in 2021 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 49:29 K:BB over 50.1 innings (11 starts), and he was traded to the Reds in March. He improved both his strikeout and walk rates (22.5 and 13.3 percent, respectively), but both figures remains below average. The right-hander is being slow played during spring training after missing much of last season with a strain shoulder, but he should eventually be in the mix for the rotation with Cincinnati. Dunn's flyball rate (50.7 percent) could be more of a problem with his new team since he'll now have half his games coming in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Regression to Dunn's 2.70 ERA in 2019 was expected, and while 2020's 4.34 mark appears to a decent landing, he pitched a lot worse than that number suggests. Dunn was saved by a .179 BABIP -- a very low number despite second percentile average exit velocity and 17th percentile hard-hit rate. His 15.7% walk rate was within four percentage points of his K%. Rash judgements on a two-month sample are unwise, but ignoring Dunn's underlying metrics is also not advised. Not only does he still need to hone control, but Dunn needs to be wary of an impending correction toward the hit rate posted early in his MLB career. Armed with a 93-mph fastball with below-average spin, the right-hander has little margin for error. Dunn figures to take the ball a lot for a rebuilding Mariners club in 2021, but he does not project to be a big part of that rebuild.
Dunn spent the majority of the season with Double-A Arkansas in his first year in the Mariners organization, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts. His underlying numbers were strong as well, as he struck out 28.6% of opposing batters while walking just 7.1%. Dunn was given his first big-league callup in September, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings but also walking nine batters. He hasn't had significant walk issues in the minors, but his command was never expected to be better than average. Dunn projects as a fourth or fifth starter, as his low-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup are average pitches at best, while his low-80s slider could be above-average. He has not pitched at all at Triple-A, but given the Mariners' youth movement and lack of rotation depth, he will probably enter spring training as a favorite to break camp in the big-league rotation.
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020.
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Cleared for rehab start
PCincinnati Reds
Shoulder
September 26, 2022
Dunn (shoulder) is scheduled to make a rehab start with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Lands on injured list
PCincinnati Reds
Shoulder
September 15, 2022
Dunn was placed on the 15-day injured list with right shoulder tightness Thursday, retroactive to Sept. 12.
ANALYSIS
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Activated Wednesday
PCincinnati Reds
September 14, 2022
Dunn was activated from the COVID-19 injured list Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Goes on COVID-19 IL
PCincinnati Reds
Illness
September 12, 2022
The Reds placed Dunn on the COVID-19 injured list Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard in loss
PCincinnati Reds
September 11, 2022
Dunn (1-3) took the loss Sunday, allowing six runs on six hits and three walks over three innings in a 7-6 loss against the Brewers. He struck out one.
ANALYSIS
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