Justin Dunn

Justin Dunn

28-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
Out
Injury Shoulder
Est. Return 7/1/2024
2024 Fantasy Outlook
There was no outlook written for Justin Dunn in 2024. Check out the latest news below for more on his current fantasy value.
RANKS
$Signed a one-year, $900,000 contract with the Reds in January of 2023. Released by the Reds in October of 2023.
Elects free agency
PFree Agent  
Shoulder
October 12, 2023
Dunn (shoulder) elected free agency Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Dunn had been cast off the Reds' 40-man roster and has decided to look for another organization rather than accept an outright assignment. The right-hander missed all of this season with a shoulder injury, which eventually required surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule. Dunn probably won't be ready to pitch until well into the 2024 campaign.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-29%
BAA vs RHP
2021
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .247 190 35 34 38 6 1 10
Since 2021vs Right .212 166 35 12 31 6 0 7
2023vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022vs Left .322 73 9 13 19 5 0 5
2022vs Right .228 65 12 4 13 3 0 6
2021vs Left .200 117 26 21 19 1 1 5
2021vs Right .202 101 23 8 18 3 0 1
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-27%
ERA at Home
2023
No Stats
2022
 
 
-18%
ERA on Road
2021
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 3.77 1.29 31.0 0 1 0 10.2 5.2 1.7
Since 2021Away 5.19 1.49 50.1 2 5 0 6.3 5.0 2.0
2023Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2023Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2022Home 7.04 1.57 7.2 0 0 0 9.4 2.3 4.7
2022Away 5.79 1.59 23.1 1 3 0 5.0 5.8 2.7
2021Home 2.70 1.20 23.1 0 1 0 10.4 6.2 0.8
2021Away 4.67 1.41 27.0 1 2 0 7.3 4.3 1.3
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Justin Dunn See More
MLB Injury Analysis: Shoulder Strain for Woodruff
313 days ago
Jeff Stotts runs down the key injuries, including shoulder and elbow injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Jeffrey Springs, as well as hamstring strains for Giancarlo Stanton and Corey Seager.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
335 days ago
Jan Levine kicks off the column for 2023 and examines all the NL positional battles.
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL Central
352 days ago
Brad Johnson looks at pitching in the NL Central where in Cincinnati, he believes Nick Lodolo might be a value pick.
Spring Training Job Battles: National League
February 24, 2023
Erik Halterman covers every NL job up for grabs during spring training, including the shortstop job in Atlanta where Vaughn Grissom likely will battle it out with Orlando Arcia.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
October 2, 2022
Jan Levine concludes his column for the season with a look at the remaining schedule while also offering potential stash candidates.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
The shoulder injury which ended Dunn's last season in Seattle in 2021 delayed his Cincinnati debut in 2022 until August. He felt more tightness in the shoulder in his fifth start back and eventually returned to the injured list in September. Dunn did start another rehab assignment later that month and allegedly finished the season healthy, although he still must be considered a medical red flag going into 2023. Perhaps the shoulder problems can partly explain Dunn's struggles with the Reds, but he hadn't been terribly impressive during his time with the Mariners, either, even as he managed a sub-4.00 ERA. The 27-year-old is an extreme fly ball pitcher with major control problems and he pitches in the most home run-friendly environment in baseball. Dunn hasn't shown nearly enough swing-and-miss ability to overcome that, so even if the shoulder issue is behind him it's difficult to see a path to fantasy viability.
Dunn had a solid campaign in 2021 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 49:29 K:BB over 50.1 innings (11 starts), and he was traded to the Reds in March. He improved both his strikeout and walk rates (22.5 and 13.3 percent, respectively), but both figures remains below average. The right-hander is being slow played during spring training after missing much of last season with a strain shoulder, but he should eventually be in the mix for the rotation with Cincinnati. Dunn's flyball rate (50.7 percent) could be more of a problem with his new team since he'll now have half his games coming in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Regression to Dunn's 2.70 ERA in 2019 was expected, and while 2020's 4.34 mark appears to a decent landing, he pitched a lot worse than that number suggests. Dunn was saved by a .179 BABIP -- a very low number despite second percentile average exit velocity and 17th percentile hard-hit rate. His 15.7% walk rate was within four percentage points of his K%. Rash judgements on a two-month sample are unwise, but ignoring Dunn's underlying metrics is also not advised. Not only does he still need to hone control, but Dunn needs to be wary of an impending correction toward the hit rate posted early in his MLB career. Armed with a 93-mph fastball with below-average spin, the right-hander has little margin for error. Dunn figures to take the ball a lot for a rebuilding Mariners club in 2021, but he does not project to be a big part of that rebuild.
Dunn spent the majority of the season with Double-A Arkansas in his first year in the Mariners organization, posting a 3.55 ERA over 25 starts. His underlying numbers were strong as well, as he struck out 28.6% of opposing batters while walking just 7.1%. Dunn was given his first big-league callup in September, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings but also walking nine batters. He hasn't had significant walk issues in the minors, but his command was never expected to be better than average. Dunn projects as a fourth or fifth starter, as his low-90s fastball and upper-80s changeup are average pitches at best, while his low-80s slider could be above-average. He has not pitched at all at Triple-A, but given the Mariners' youth movement and lack of rotation depth, he will probably enter spring training as a favorite to break camp in the big-league rotation.
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020.
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Outrighted to Triple-A
PCincinnati Reds  
Shoulder
October 9, 2023
Dunn (shoulder) cleared waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A Louisville on Monday.
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Set for shoulder surgery
PCincinnati Reds  
Shoulder
September 1, 2023
Dunn will undergo surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his right shoulder, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
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Suffers setback with shoulder
PCincinnati Reds  
Shoulder
August 29, 2023
Dunn's rehab assignment at Triple-A Louisville was halted Thursday after he suffered a setback with his right shoulder, MLB.com reports.
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Beginning rehab assignment
PCincinnati Reds  
Shoulder
August 16, 2023
Dunn (shoulder) is set to begin a rehab assignment Wednesday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League.
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Prepping for relief role
PCincinnati Reds  
Shoulder
August 6, 2023
Reds manager David Bell said Sunday that Dunn (shoulder) will work out of the bullpen once he's activated from the 60-day injured list, Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
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