Ryan McMahon

Ryan McMahon

29-Year-Old Third Baseman3B
Colorado Rockies
2024 Fantasy Outlook
McMahon and Max Muncy are distant relatives insomuch as they are the only two players to hit at least 20 homers while hitting below .255 in each of the past four full seasons of baseball. Muncy brings much more to the table in run production, but we still find that to be an interesting stat. McMahon is like most Rockies in that he is better at Coors (.261, .816 OPS) than he is on the road (.219, .690 OPS) and his righty/lefty splits are not getting better as time goes on. The reliance on his home park and facing right handed pitching is what limits his upside despite the sweet dual-position eligibility he carries on draft day at second and third base. There is no reason to expect anything different from him in 2024 because he would be fooling to take a conditional opt-out of his current contract given how much of his production is married to his current home park. Set expectations at 20 homers and a .250 average and be content with that. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#227
ADP
$Signed a six-year, $70 million contract extension with the Rockies in March of 2022.
Out of lineup
3BColorado Rockies
September 30, 2023
McMahon will be on the bench for Saturday's game against Minnesota, Luke Zahlmann of The Denver Gazette reports.
ANALYSIS
McMahon took a slight step back at the plate this season, with his strikeout rate spiking to 31.5 percent while his wRC+ dipped to 89. With the boost from Coors Field, however, that still adds up to a respectable .241/.324/.434 slash line with 23 homers. He'll hit the bench for the fourth time in seven games, with Alan Trejo starting at third base.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
6
61
9
24
6
2
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
2
20
3
5
8
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+30%
OPS vs RHP
2023
 
 
+44%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+21%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+24%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .626 523 55 11 51 1 .216 .298 .328
Since 2021vs Right .811 1297 172 55 172 17 .259 .338 .473
2023vs Left .573 178 19 4 12 0 .191 .264 .309
2023vs Right .826 449 61 19 58 5 .260 .345 .481
2022vs Left .642 172 23 3 18 1 .228 .320 .322
2022vs Right .779 425 44 17 49 6 .253 .329 .450
2021vs Left .665 173 13 4 21 0 .229 .312 .353
2021vs Right .826 423 67 19 65 6 .264 .338 .488
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+20%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+28%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+15%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .825 936 144 40 136 7 .267 .341 .484
Since 2021Away .686 884 83 26 87 11 .224 .311 .375
2023Home .816 311 42 14 47 2 .261 .334 .482
2023Away .690 316 38 9 23 3 .219 .310 .380
2022Home .827 316 48 14 43 3 .263 .345 .482
2022Away .645 281 19 6 24 4 .227 .306 .339
2021Home .830 309 54 12 46 2 .278 .343 .487
2021Away .723 287 26 11 40 4 .227 .317 .406
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Ryan McMahon compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.34
 
BB Rate
10.8%
 
K Rate
31.6%
 
BABIP
.326
 
ISO
.191
 
AVG
.240
 
OBP
.322
 
SLG
.431
 
OPS
.753
 
wOBA
.330
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
43.9%
 
Barrels/PA
6.5%
 
Expected BA
.245
 
Expected SLG
.445
 
Sprint Speed
21.6 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
43.3%
 
Line Drive %
23.2%
 
Fly Ball %
33.5%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
While it's not quite fair to say he has no chance outside of Coors Field, McMahon is a .215/.301/.351 career hitter on the road. He has been able to shave his strikeout rate in recent years from around 30% to closer to 25%, and McMahon has now reached 20 home runs in each of his last three full seasons. Even so, on any other team, McMahon may not garner much attention. He has utility in leagues that allow you to stream him for his home series, but McMahon should not be viewed as a player to set and forget as the road numbers will really drag him down. Last March, McMahon signed a long-term deal with the Rockies, so he's not going anywhere. Deploy him carefully and McMahon can provide value thanks to the Coors bump. He's now third-base only in many leagues after making only 10 appearances at second base in 2022.
McMahon is a tough player to roster because of his home/away splits. Over his career, he's hit .273/.344/.501 at home and just .211/.299/.355 on the road. In most formats, those numbers outside of Colorado simply aren't going to cut it. McMahon really struggled in the short 2020 season with almost every underlying metric (walks, strikeouts, power, etc.) heading in the wrong direction. All of those stats bounced back in 2021, with the biggest improvement being a four-year-low 24.7 K%. He's not great in any one area and projects to provide just over 20 homers with a half dozen stolen bases. He is qualified at two positions (2B, 3B), and there has been talk of him seeing time at shortstop with Trevor Story gone. McMahon should be considered roster filler for those fantasy managers who have long enough benches to only start him at home. He signed an extension in spring training that will keep him with Colorado through the end of the 2027 season.
McMahon ranked second on the Rockies with nine home runs in 2020, but he had some struggles with putting the ball in play throughout the season. He mainly occupied the strong side of a platoon toward the end of the year as he recorded a career-worst 34.2 K%, along with a 79.9 Z-Contact%. The 26-year-old had quite a consistent BABIP in 2018 (.327) and 2019 (.323), but the mark fell to .286 last season. He hit more batted balls in the air while keeping his hard-hit rate relatively steady, but his hit locations became more predictable as he had a 40.2% pull rate -- by far his highest number over a full season. McMahon's strikeout woes don't seem to be disappearing anytime soon, and he could find himself getting less at-bats against southpaws if his struggles making contact continue. However, he's proven to be a powerful hitter despite his downfalls and could provide mid-round value for fantasy managers.
McMahon finally got regular playing time in 2019, but it took him until the second half of the season to make the most of it. A .256/.332/.399 first-half slash line gave way to a .244/.326/.500 slash line after the break, and he hit 17 of his 24 homers after the intermission. Can anyone explain his 41% HR/FB in the second half despite his flyball rate declining from the first half? Us neither. There is still a lot of noise in this stat line, but both his average exit velocity and his hard-hit rate were in the 90th percentile last season. The strikeout rate remains rather high, which should temper expectations for him because Coors Field or not, it is tough for anyone to hit for average while striking out 30% of the time. McMahon missed qualifying at three positions by one game in 2019, if you play in the standard 20-game rule format. If you use 10 or 15, enjoy his 1B/2B/3B eligibility.
An impressive camp landed McMahon on the Opening Day roster, playing first base against right-handed pitching. After slashing .180/.317/.200 through April 30, McMahon was farmed to Triple-A Albuquerque. He was recalled May 25 to help fill in at second. After a hot start, McMahon fell back to his unproductive ways and was demoted again June 20. He returned in late July, finishing the season in a reserve role. McMahon slashed .256/.333/.419 over the second half, buoyed by a 1.076 OPS at home. Contact was McMahon's primary shortcoming as he fanned at a 31.7% clip. Entering 2018, it appeared McMahon had made strides in that department. Plus, a 29.9% flyball rate hindered power. Still just 24 years old, McMahon has time to get back on track and tap into the home-run potential he showed in the minors. There's playing time to be had on the right side of the infield, at least versus RHP.
It's clear now that 2016 -- a year where McMahon was a league average hitter (101 wRC+) on a Hartford Yard Goats team that had to play all their games on the road -- was the outlier. He has been at least 37 percent better than league average during every other minor-league stint, and was dominant at Double-A and Triple-A in 2017. One could point to good fortune (.381 BABIP at Double-A, .416 BABIP at Triple-A) as the reason for this dominance. However, he got his strikeout rate under 20 percent for the first time in his career, which points to sustainable success. He has plus power, sneaky speed for a corner infielder, and with the help of Coors Field, he could annually flirt with .300. While McMahon is a third baseman by trade, he started 33 games at first base, 23 games at second base and 13 games at the hot corner while at Triple-A. The Rockies are prepping him for an inevitable position change due to Nolan Arenado's presence. He could serve as the big-league first baseman for the bulk of 2018.
McMahon entered the season as a consensus top-50 prospect, and he proceeded to post career-worst full-season numbers in every relevant offensive category other than walk rate (10.3 percent) and steals (11 on 17 attempts). The decline in production coincides with him moving to a neutral hitting environment after taking advantage of the extremely hitter-friendly parks in Low-A Asheville and High-A Modesto during the two previous seasons. McMahon played half his games at first base last year, which sheds some light on the Rockies' long-term plans, as he is blocked at third base by Nolan Arenado. He was essentially a league average hitter in the Eastern League (101 wRC+) while being over three years younger than league average, which would be more encouraging if he still projected to end up on the left side of the infield. Additionally, his 30.1 percent strikeout rate raises concerns about the viability of his hit tool against upper-level pitching.
Since being drafted 42nd overall in 2013, McMahon has done nothing but tear the cover off the ball. He spent all of 2015 at High-A Modesto and for the third straight year the slugging third baseman hit better than .280, with an OBP over .350, a slugging percentage north of .500 and an ISO of at least .220. It is worth noting that in 2014 he spent the entire season with Low-A Asheville, which along with Modesto is one of the most favorable hitting environments in the minors, so his numbers should not be taken entirely at face value. That said, he will begin his age-21 season at Double-A, coming off back-to-back 18-homer seasons, so McMahon is undeniably advanced with the bat. He might be just two years away from being big league ready, at which point the Rockies may need to consider moving McMahon to first base, where the bat should still be able to play, that is if Nolan Arenado is the long-term option at the hot corner.
McMahon was the toast of the Sally League last April, homering nine times in the month and looking every bit the part of the advanced left-handed hitter with pop the Rockies believed they netted when they drafted him in 2013. His slugging tailed off to more modest levels after that, but McMahon still enjoyed a successful campaign, finishing with a .282/.358/.502 line over his 552 plate appearances. While he still struggles with making contact (25.9 K%) and noticed a fairly significant gulf in both his home/road and lefty/righty splits, McMahon was a year or more younger than most of his compatriots at Low-A and made up for the high strikeout totals by posting a quality 9.8% walk rate. Nolan Arenado looks to be the Rockies’ long-term answer at third base, but McMahon will likely remain at the position again at High-A Modesto this season before perhaps moving to a corner outfield spot if and when his well-rounded offensive skills warrant a promotion to the upper levels of the minors.
More Fantasy News
Gets breather Thursday
3BColorado Rockies
September 28, 2023
McMahon is not in the lineup Thursday versus the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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On bench for later game
3BColorado Rockies
September 26, 2023
McMahon is out of the lineup for the second game of Tuesday's doubleheader versus the Dodgers.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting against lefty
3BColorado Rockies
September 24, 2023
McMahon isn't in the Rockies' lineup Sunday against the Cubs, Patrick Lyons of TheDNVR.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes seat versus lefty
3BColorado Rockies
September 19, 2023
McMahon is not in the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Padres.
ANALYSIS
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On bench Sunday
3BColorado Rockies
September 17, 2023
McMahon is not in the lineup Sunday versus the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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