Mound Musings: Advanced Metrics Analysis

Admittedly, I'm fascinated by anything new related to pitching metrics. Clearly, as demonstrated by the last couple years of Cy Young voting, we are beyond using wins as a means of stack-ranking pitchers. Even the cranky BBWAA has warmed to the idea that things like ERA, WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio, and innings pitched are far more important in determining who had the best season. In the fantasy community, we always like to think we're a bit further advanced, using metrics like xFIP, K/9, WAR, VORP, SIERA, BB/9, BABIP, LOB%, etc. to separate the wheat from the chaff. We certainly use those things here at RotoWire, particularly in our annual projections.

If you want to go really deep, check out this article on pitcher release point and curve ball spin. Pretty fascinating stuff. We won't go quite to that level here this week, but I want to dive into a couple metrics that the great website FanGraphs tracks. I can say it is a great site because it is also smart enough to utilize RotoWire for its player notes. We'll look at the top and bottom 15 pitchers in each category and discuss specifically a few.

O-SWING%

Yeah we're getting fancy here. O-Swing% refers to the percentage of a pitcher's pitches outside the strike zone that a hitter swings at. In theory, you want a pitcher who can get hitters to chase balls. On the other hand, perhaps a pitcher's stuff is just so hittable (Luke Hochevar?) that hitters go up there with the mentality that they are going to be a bit more aggressive, and, therefore, they hack at pitches they'd usually take. Last year's surprise leader was Carl Pavano at 35.9 percent, so judging by some of this year's numbers below, pitchers are ahead of hitters early in the season. You should also keep in mind the small sample size caveat, but again, we're just using these numbers to facilitate a discussion.

Some of these names aren't a huge surprises – Cain, Nolasco, Garza, Haren, etc. Some, though, are downright head-scratchers.

Luke Hochevar: For his career, Hochevar's O-Swing% clocks in a more realistic 25.8 percent, so we'll just have to chalk this one up to sample size given Hochevar's 5.30 ERA in three starts. On the plus side is a 12:2 K:BB in 18.2 innings, but six home runs? Hochevar was, of course, a No. 1 overall draft pick, so maybe, just maybe, he'll turn into a No. 3 starter at some point, but there's a reason that when talking about the future of Royals pitching, the talk starts with the four left-handers the Royals have in Double-A.

Joe Blanton: Blanton remains "That Guy Who the Phillies Want to Dump to Save Payroll," and so far this year we're looking at a 10.45 ERA in two starts. Look closer, though, and you'll see a .429 BABIP, 8.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 as signs he's not quite THIS bad. Mix in the fact that hitters are chasing his stuff and you have a pitcher worth targeting in NL-only leagues.

Matt Garza: If your league isn't smart enough to look beyond Garza's zero wins and 5.68 ERA, by all means trade for him. A 20:3 K:BB in 12.1 innings combined with his topping the O-Swing% leaderboard are both solid indications that Garza is going to see a quick turnaround in that ERA.

Brandon Beachy: Entering spring training, I figured Mike Minor was essentially a lock for the No. 5 slot in Atlanta, but Beachy deservedly won the job after a strong spring. Beachy is 24, and as such, he's never been considered one of the organization's top prospects, but it's hard to ignore the numbers:

2010 Double-A: 1.47 ERA, 12.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
2010 Triple-A: 2.17 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9
2010/2011 Majors: 3.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Certainly good enough to stick in the back end of a big-league rotation. Beachy won't blow batters away, but his fastball sits at a good-enough 91.6 mph on average, and his curve is pretty solid. Nice NL-only sleeper.

Travis Wood: Wood is doing his best to partner with Roy Oswalt and Tim Hudson to erase the "short pitcher" bias. I admittedly fall into that boat on occasion, but Wood looks to be for real. He had a 1.77 ERA in the minors in 2009 and followed that up with another strong season in Triple-A in 2010 before finishing the year with the Reds and posting a 3.51 ERA and solid 86:26 K:BB in 102.2 innings. Wood was a second-round pick in 2005, so this isn't quite coming out of nowhere, but unless he has another couple starts like his last (seemingly flukish) start against Arizona, he's not going to stick around once guys like Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey return from the disabled list.

Now for the trailers. These are pitchers whose offerings out of the zone aren't swung at as frequently. Could this be because batters are waiting for a pitcher's less-than-stellar stuff to come in over the middle of the plate? Could be that, could be early season sample size, or perhaps it's just a way a pitcher works. Maybe the pitcher is known as a strike-thrower to the point that batters know they are eventually going to get something good to hit if they stay patient. Let's let the numbers tell the story:

The only surprising names here are Chris Carpenter and Brett Anderson, two of baseball's best. We'll give them a pass based on their track records.

James McDonald: I'm still pretty bullish on McDonald based on his minor league history and impressive time in Pittsburgh a year ago, but he's obviously off to a slow start. McDonald started slow in L.A. last year, so maybe that's just his M.O.

Kyle McClellan: Dave Duncan can do wonders, but McClellan isn't quite this good (2.25 ERA), as evidenced by his appearance here, a 3.48 xFIP and a pre-2011 track record as nothing more than a so-so middle reliever. He could still be a 4.25 ERA type, which has value, but there will be bumps in the road.

Brad Penny: Penny's velocity is down more than two full mph over last year, this flyball rate is up and he's been erratic more than ever this year. Other than that, he's had a great start. I'm done with him.

Jason Marquis: Marquis is in a contract year, so if you believe in that stuff, he may be worth $1 in NL-only formats. Other than that, he's one of baseball's more unreliable starters.

Chris Tillman: Tillman is a nice talent, but he's far from a finished product. He benefited handsomely from a .185 BABIP in his first two starts. While the upside is there long-term, I'm not sure he's going to provide a ton of value in 2011.

Z-CONTACT%

This measures the percentage of a pitcher's strikes that the batter makes contact with when he swings. Clearly, the lower the better, as, again in theory, less contact is preferred to more contact for a pitcher. We won't see only elite pitchers on this list, however, as they could potentially get batters to chase more pitches, and thus not need to throw as many strikes.

Hey, there's Mr. Blanton again!

Another interesting list. On one hand you have a handful of aces (Weaver, Halladay, Lincecum, and Price). You have Edwin Jackson off to a hot start, de la Rosa who knows how to rack up the strikeouts and a guy in Max Scherzer who could seemingly throw a no-hitter at any moment if he channels his stuff for a full nine innings.

Then there are a handful of head-scratchers:

Bruce Chen – Chen surprised last year with a 4.17 ERA in 140.1 innings, this despite pedestrian peripherals – 6.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9. Based on that alone, we can't predict much lower than a 4.50 ERA for 2011. Chen's rates were 88.2 percent and 89.4 percent the last two years, so we'll chalk this one up to early season sample size. Chen, though, is worth a couple bucks in deeper leagues. Just be sure to spot start him as appropriate.

Chris Narveson – I'm not quite sure yet if Narveson is Doug Davis or something more. He's certainly looking to be more this year with 13 scoreless innings and a 14:4 K:BB. Narveson has never been a pitcher to miss a ton of bats (7.3 K/9 last year), even in the minors. Pitchers with an 88.6 mph average fastball (career) aren't normally worth targeting, but with the Brewers offense, Narveson could be a contributor in the wins, ERA and WHIP categories in deeper leagues. Narveson's career Z-Contact% is 87.8, so it's far too early to conclude that his skillset has changed significantly.

Josh Tomlin – Tomlin owners have to be quite happy (though did anyone have him active for both starts?), as the Cleveland right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA. This comes despite a 7:6 K:BB in 13.2 innings. Tomlin put up a 5.3 K/9 in 73 innings last year, so he hasn't exactly proven the ability to miss many bats. Per FanGraphs (sorry, haven't watched enough Indians games to verify first-hand), Tomlin has introduced a slider into his repertoire, so perhaps that will help him become a serviceable AL-only guy, but don't expect much more from a pitcher who averages 87 mph with his fastball.

Jesse Litsch – Like many Tommy John survivors, Litsch's command has been slow to return, but through two starts, he does have a 2.38 ERA with an 11:6 K:BB in 11.1 innings. We have to assume the BB/9 will trend toward his solid 2.5 career mark, so Litsch remains at least interesting. Something worth watching is he's throwing his slider and curveball two mph faster over last year. I'm not sure how much that ends up impacting his ERA, but as I say – interesting. Brandon Morrow (elbow) is due back in 7-to-10 days, so either Litsch or Jo-Jo Reyes will find himself in the bullpen or Triple-A soon. Expect Reyes to get the boot, but each likely will have another start or two to impress.

And now the Z-Contact% trailers:

The good:

He's not on the DL.
A 0.59 BB/9
No HR allowed
A 49.1 GB%
91.3 mph average fastball – 89.5 mph career average

The bad:

4.1 K/9
Appearing on this list

As you can see, more positives than negatives, so I'll remain slightly optimistic here.

Regan, a four-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, was named the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.