Regan's Rumblings: Will Slow Starters Bounce Back?

Per usual, a host of players are off to slow starts this season. Some, of course, will turn things around and be the guy we thought we knew, but others may simply never turn the corner.

Let's look at a few of these players and project how we think they'll due based on the underlying numbers or simply my observations. For the record, you won't find Chase Utley here, as it's looking like perhaps his stock is on the rise. Same for Jimmy Rollins and Josh Harrison, among others.

Evan Gattis, C/OF, HOU

It's not all bad with Gattis this year, of course, as he hit his eighth home run Wednesday, and with 24 driven in, he's on pace for 90-plus RBI. Still, Gattis batting just .196/.221/.406 with a 35:5 K:BB in 145 PA. Gattis walked in just 5.5 percent of his PA last year en route to a .263/.317/.493 season, so he's yet to demonstrate any sort of plate discipline. Gattis will always have above average power, but it's hard to see him developing into a guy who walks more than 7 percent of the time. With no speed and an all-or-nothing approach, a .250 BA looks to be his ceiling. I expect the BA to climb, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he ended up hitting .220 by year's end.

Billy Hamilton, OF, CIN

Hamilton was recently moved down to the bottom of the order, and considering he's hitting just .214/.261/.331, it's well deserved. To add to the indignity, Hamilton was even pinch hit for by Skip Schumaker on Wednesday. Hamilton is actually walking more and striking out a little less than last year, but his BABIP is also approximately 80 points lower. In his last significant Triple-A action, Hamilton posted a .308 OBP in 123 games, so his struggles getting on base the past couple years shouldn't be a huge surprise. At this point, if Hamilton doesn't show some improvement from the eight hole, a Triple-A stint could be in order. Quite the fall for a player who went in the second round in some drafts this spring.

Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE

Raise your hand if you were feeling pretty good about rostering Chisenhall after he started last year batting .345/.399/.555 through June 30. It was all downhill from there, as Chisenhall posted just a .592 OPS over the second half. That performance has continued into this year, as he is hitting just .226/. 263/.371 with three home runs. Chisenhall is striking out a career low 13.3 percent of the time, but he's also walking in just 4.4 percent of his PA. His .243 BABIP is well short of last year's .331 mark, so we should see some BA improvement shortly. I do like that even though he hits from the left side, he hits southpaws a bit better than righties, and he was once a highly-rated prospect, but at this point, he seems unlikely to be anything more than average offensively.

Leonys Martin, OF, TEX

On the surface, this explanation seems fairly simple:

2014: .274 BA, .337 BABIP
2015: .206 BA, .241 BABIP

Just bad luck, right? Perhaps somewhat, but we also had Martin projected for 12 homers and 36 steals, and so far he has just three homers and six steals. Martin has seen his BB% drop from 6.7 to 5.3 percent, and he's been dealing with a balky wrist that could be impacting his performance. I'd be worried if I actually owned Martin, as Josh Hamilton is nearing a return and Rule 5 draftee Delino DeShields is batting a surprising .268/.379/.375 with 10 stolen bases. DeShields could start eating into Martin's playing time.

Albert Pujols, 1B, LAA

You know it's been a long slide for Pujols when you have to add a significant piece to the Pujols side of the deal in your fantasy league to land Eric Hosmer. After Pujols improved from .258/.330/.437 in his second year with the Angels to .272/.324/.466 last year, I hoped for something in the range of .280/.340/.480 this year. For someone who once hit .357/.462/.653, I thought that was a reasonable expectation, but so far this year -- .232/.286/.415. Considering the Angels owe Pujols $165 million after this year, this will soon be the worst contract in the game if it's not already.

So is there anything positive to glean from his numbers this year? A 6.5 BB%? Nope, that's the lowest of his career. A 13.0 K%? Not bad at all, but second highest of his career. The power is encouraging, I guess, as Pujols' seven home runs equate to a 20.3 AB/HR rate, which is marginally better than last year's 22.6 mark. Pujols' .226 BABIP should improve, but probably not to the point where it lifts his average above .260. Supposedly Pujols reported that his right knee was finally healthy this spring, but take it with a grain of salt. I see him ending the year at .250-25-75.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL

Guys like Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are supposed to be fantasy gods when healthy, right? After an injury-riddled 2014 saw Gonzalez drop to a .238/.292/.431 slash line, the regression has continued into 2015, as he's hitting just .205/.271/.339 this year. Gonzalez was 1-for-4 on Wednesday, and it's pretty shocking to see that his RBI single was just his 12th RBI in 36 games this year. He's walking and striking out at slightly better rates than in the last couple years, and his .240 BABIP should climb, but if he truly is healthy and this is anywhere near the new baseline, his fantasy value will continue to plummet. Three years ago, he posted a .289 ISO, a number that his fallen off the cliff this year to .134. For comparison purposes, Zack Greinke had a .150 ISO last year. I'm afraid we're seeing a decline as rapid as they come.

Jason Heyward, OF, STL

This was supposed to be the year in which Heyward's bat started to catch up to his Gold Glove defense, leading to a $200 million free-agent contract this winter. However, Heyward is still batting just .250/.306/.396. With a 7.0 BB%, Heyward has seen his plate discipline erode, considering his career mark is 10.9 percent. More concerning is the drop in power. Since hitting 27 homers with a .210 ISO in 2012, Heyward's ISO dropped to .113 last year, so at least it's up this year. At 25, Heyward is still young enough to recapture the glory of 2012, but don't expect that it to happen in a Cardinals uniform this year.

Chris Tillman, SP, BAL

Tillman is one of my bigger disappointments, as I really thought he had the pedigree as a prospect and the ability to take his game to the next level and perhaps even be a true No. 2 starter. Well, this year the problem is obvious.

BB/9 Rate:

2013: 3.0
2014: 2.9
2015: 4.5

His swinging-strike percentage has tumbled from 8 to 7 percent and now this year, 6.5 percent. To put that in context, the average pitcher generates swings-and-misses with 9.5 percent of his pitches. He's not only not fooling many hitters, he's also granting them first base with increased regularity, and he's back to allowing 1.4 HR per nine innings. I guess if you want to be optimistic, Tillman does have a 2.92 ERA this year when NOT facing the Blue Jays, and a 12.51 mark in three games against Toronto. Perhaps they see something in his delivery others don't, but that is correctable. That's probably a stretch, but either way, I'm pessimistic. I expected more growth by now.

Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS

It's pretty easy to point to Strasburg's 9.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and .412 BABIP and simply say that he's going to get better. That may very well be the case, as his 5.98 ERA is in stark contrast to his 3.66 xFIP. That said, Strasburg also has a 2.78 xFIP for his career, so he's clearly shown some regression this year. Where? Just going off of last year's 215 innings (only year with more than 183), his K/9 (10.1 in 2014) and BB/9 (1.8 in 2014) have taken hits. His 26.5 LD% is five points above his career rate, so that may help explain some of the inflated BABIP. It's pretty telling, though, that his 7.3 percent swinging-strike rate has plummeted from its usual 11 percent mark, indicating that he's either not commanding the ball as well and/or his pitches aren't as crisp. His fastball velocity is about the same at a 94.7 mph average, but if you look deep into the PITCHf/x data, his curve, once a devastating pitch, is simply not the same. Based on all that, it's safe to conclude that his ERA is going to trend down, but is he even a No. 2 starter these days? I have doubts.

Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

This preseason, I was asked several times for "the next Corey Kluber." The implication, of course, being, who did I think was going to take a big step forward and perhaps even compete for a Cy Young award, like Kluber last season. I decided that pitcher was Carrasco given last year's improvement:

K/9: 2013 - 5.8, 2014 - 9.4
BB/9: 2013 - 3.5, 2014 - 2.0
ERA: 2013 - 6.75, 2014 - 2.55

So far I'm a bit off given Carrasco's 4.98 ERA, but he also has a 2.67 xFIP (2.66 last year), and his ratios are excellent -- 10.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Carrasco sports a .371 BABIP, so that's part of the story, and he's stranding just 64.2 percent of his baserunners versus 75.9 percent a year ago, so there's some element of bad luck involved as well. With his swinging-strike percentage top-notch at 13.1 percent and his velocity stable, I can't help but think he's a buy-low in many formats.

Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS

I just can't quit this guy. He's never thrown more than 189.1 innings in a season, never made 30 starts in a year, and generally seems to be either hurt or wildly inconsistent. This year, Buchholz has managed to put up a 4.93 ERA despite a 10.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. He's generating more ground balls and a lot more swings-and-misses (12 percent swinging strike rate vs. 8.6 percent last year). All signs point to improved performance the rest of the way, but we've seen Buchholz underperform his peripherals before, particularly in 2008. I'd probably deal for him, but not with the expectation that he's going to be an ace or even stay healthy.

Anibal Sanchez, SP, DET

Home runs have been Sanchez's downfall this year to be sure.

HR/9:

2013 - 0.45
2014 - 0.29
2015 - 1.48

Not only has his GB% dropped from its usual 45-46 percent to 35.2 this year, 13.4 percent of his flyballs are leaving the yard versus last year's ultra-low 3.1 percent. Expect the HR/9 to trend down the rest of the way, as the veteran will likely make adjustments to limit the long ball. Sanchez has posted a 7.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, which are both in line with past performance and our expectations, and with a 3.97 xFIP, his 5.60 ERA should start to trend down. Chalk this one up to simply a bad start.

R.A. Dickey, SP, TOR

Consider this karma, I guess, for Dickey having stolen Clayton Kershaw's 2012 Cy Young award, which would have given him four consecutive trophies. That year, Kershaw had the lower ERA, WHIP, ERA+ and WAR. Anyway, I'm not a bitter Dodgers fan, and I digress. Dickey hasn't been nearly the same since coming from the Mets, but this year has taken a drastic step for the worse. At 1-5 with a 5.76 ERA, there really isn't even much hope in his peripherals. His K/9 (4.1) has fallen off the map, and his control is getting worse, as his 3.4 BB/9 would be easily his highest since 2009. I'm not sure how much velocity matters with a knuckleballer, but the velocity on Dickey's fastball, change and knuckler are all down considerably. He's generating far fewer swings-and-misses, and though pitchers like Tim Wakefield and Tom Candiotti proved that success for a knuckleballer beyond age 40 is possible, Dickey is 40 and he may simply have little left in the tank. Stay far, far away.