FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Sunday brings us back to a two-game slate, with a pair of Game 4 clashes on tap. The matinee features a Nets-Bucks series that now has new life thanks to Milwaukee's latest win. The primetime showdown could be a finale with the Suns having seemingly rendered the Nuggets helpless with a 3-0 lead.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the two games: 

Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks (Projected total: 228.5 points) 

After the first two series matchups finished with 222 and 211 points, Friday turned into a true defensive slugfest with only 169 combined points. The Bucks limited the Nets to just 36.2 percent shooting, including 25.0 percent from distance. However, even with James Harden out yet again with a hamstring injury, it's highly unlikely Milwaukee can repeat the feat as Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant aren't going to go a combined 20-for-50 from the field very often as they did in Game 3. Oddsmakers clearly are also expecting more scoring and this total could well be met given the caliber of players on either side.

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (Projected total: 222.5 points) 

The first three games of the series have finished with totals between 216 and 223 points, as the Nuggets don't seem to have an answer for slowing the Suns down. Denver has also struggled to contribute to the scoreboard on a consistent basis, as they've only scored between 98 and 105 points. With Michael Porter clearly struggling with his shot due to some lower-back issues and the rest of the first team struggling to consistently give Nikola Jokic much help, it would seem likely Phoenix will be the primary contributor if this total is reached or exceeded. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

James Harden, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Harden will miss another contest, which should keep Bruce Brown in the starting five and both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving sporting even higher usage rates than usual. 

Other notable injuries: 

Jeff Green, BKN (foot)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

PJ Dozier, DEN (groin)/ Status: GTD 

Sam Merrill, MIL (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

Abdel Nader, PHO (knee)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

We have three available players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($11,500), Kevin Durant ($10,800) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600)

Jokic will undoubtedly be heavily involved once again with the Nuggets trying to avoid elimination, and he's coming off a 32-point, 20-rebound, 10-assist triple-double that netted 72.0 DK points. Given his role and ceiling, he's easily worth every penny of his salary.

Durant struggled from the field in Game 3 but still managed 61.7 FD points. With Harden out again and Brooklyn looking to get back in the win column before heading back home, Durant should once put up an avalanche of attempts and contribute across the board.

Giannis bounced back from his first sub-40-FD-point tally of the postseason with 47.8 FD points in Game 3. He's averaging 52.7 FD points over the playoffs and could well deliver at least a 5x return on salary given his expected usage.

Three other players with salaries in the high four figures capable of delivering elite scores are Kyrie Irving ($9,200), Chris Paul ($8,500) and Devin Booker ($7,900), with each undoubtedly set for high usage in their respective contests. 

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:

Khris Middleton, MIL ($8,200) 

Middleton bounced back from two poor shooting performances to open the series by shooting 12-for-25 from the floor on his way to 51.5 FD points in Game 3.

Jrue Holiday, MIL ($7,400) 

Holiday has slumped to under 30 FD points in each of the last two, but he should still be in plenty of lineups given his usual role in Milwaukee's attack and the small slate.

Deandre Ayton, PHO ($7,000) 

Ayton has produced three consecutive double-doubles and continues to carry a reasonable salary.

Blake Griffin, BKN ($5,200) 

Griffin's very reasonable salary and average of 31.2 FD points in the first three matchups should keep him highly rostered. 

Key Values 

Brook Lopez, MIL vs. BKN ($6,100)

Lopez has averaged 28.3 FD points over the first three games, and despite shooting just 1-for-7 from the field in Game 3, he still accumulated 37.2 FD points thanks in large part to six blocks. The Nets check in allowing the ninth-highest offensive efficiency to centers (33.3 percent) and the eighth-most FD points per game to fives (44.6). Lopez only took seven shots last time out, but he recorded double-digit attempts in each of the previous four postseason contests and could see his involvement boost again Sunday. 

Bruce Brown, BKN at MIL ($5,600) 

Brown has often been very productive throughout the regular season and postseason whenever having to fill in for Harden, and accordingly, he's averaged 27.7 FD points while shooting 50.0 percent over the first three games against the Bucks. The third-year guard put together a double-double in Game 3 and took double-digit shot attempts in each of the last two contests, and with Harden out once more in Game 4, Brown could well outpace his salary again.

Will Barton, DEN vs. PHO ($5,100) 

Barton saw a solid boost in playing time in Game 2, going from Game 1's 16 minutes to 28. The veteran wing put the extra floor time to good use by posting 24.9 FD points while attempting 14 shots. Barton could therefore easily clear 30 minutes in Game 4, and he should be very aggressive and possibly overdeliver on what is still a very modest salary with Denver in desperate need of a win.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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