This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
Jonas Valanciunas to double-double + Pelicans win vs. Pacers (-115) – FanDuel, 4:00 PM CT
This slate is downright ugly, with tons of questionable players throwing a wrench into everything. One spot that feels safe is Valanciunas against the decimated frontcourt of the Pacers, who are down both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. I'm throwing in the win to the double-double prop for the extra value, since New Orleans should also be able to take care of business as a team.
Jonas Valanciunas OVER 20.5 points (-125) vs. Indiana Pacers – DraftKings, 3:00 PM CT
The big man has only gone over 20 points twice in the last seven games, but he draws perhaps the most appealing matchup in the league right now in the banged-up Pacers, who will be without Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon and possibly Caris LeVert. Obviously, the frontcourt players are our main concern here. With Turner and Sabonis down, Valanciunas will likely match up against Goga Bitadze, Oshae Brissett and rookie Isaiah Jackson. Any of those matchups should be easily exploitable. Valanciunas Points + Rebounds prop (34.5) is also worth a look.
Yes, I'm going back to the Giddey well after the rookie embarrassingly couldn't score 10+ points in the last recommendation. The odds of that happening again just seem extreme, especially with the Bulls missing so many guys in the backcourt. Those backcourt absences are also why I think the under seems completely likely. It's the Robinson-Earl number that truthfully has me most concerned, but the Thunder's frontcourt rotation is incredibly rigid which should hopefully limit the rookie's opportunities.