Deciding which players to target and which to avoid is the foundation of any winning draft strategy. This year, however, a few key players are causing serious debates among fantasy analysts. Are they breakout candidates or injury risks waiting to happen? We're looking at five of the hardest players to rank—the ultimate boom or bust list for your 9-category fantasy basketball league.
Most Difficult NBA Fantasy Players to Rank
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers 
Leonard has been productive the last two seasons. In 2023-24, he averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers. Last season, he provided 21.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers per game. He played 68 games two seasons ago, but just 37 games last year.
Leonard's injury history is what makes him so difficult to rank. He has played in 57 or fewer games in four of the last five seasons. However, he has been productive when he is on the floor. Since joining the Clippers, he has averaged 24.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers over five seasons. The Clippers improved their depth by adding John Collins, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez during the offseason, but Leonard is still expected to lead the team alongside James Harden. Leonard's current ADP on Yahoo is 45. If he plays in around 65 games, he will likely be worth it for managers who drafted him. However, if he plays fewer than 50 games, he
Deciding which players to target and which to avoid is the foundation of any winning draft strategy. This year, however, a few key players are causing serious debates among fantasy analysts. Are they breakout candidates or injury risks waiting to happen? We're looking at five of the hardest players to rank—the ultimate boom or bust list for your 9-category fantasy basketball league.
Most Difficult NBA Fantasy Players to Rank
Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Leonard has been productive the last two seasons. In 2023-24, he averaged 23.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers. Last season, he provided 21.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers per game. He played 68 games two seasons ago, but just 37 games last year.
Leonard's injury history is what makes him so difficult to rank. He has played in 57 or fewer games in four of the last five seasons. However, he has been productive when he is on the floor. Since joining the Clippers, he has averaged 24.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 2.1 three-pointers over five seasons. The Clippers improved their depth by adding John Collins, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez during the offseason, but Leonard is still expected to lead the team alongside James Harden. Leonard's current ADP on Yahoo is 45. If he plays in around 65 games, he will likely be worth it for managers who drafted him. However, if he plays fewer than 50 games, he can really bring down your fantasy squad.
Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz 
Markkanen was great in his first two seasons with the Jazz, averaging at least 23.2 points and 8.2 rebounds in both campaigns. He also shot at least 48.0% from the field in each season. His efficiency then plummeted last season, leaving him to shoot 42.3% from the field. That contributed to him averaging just 19.0 points per game. His production on the boards also took a hit with him providing just 5.9 rebounds per game. Injuries and the Jazz tanking down the stretch left him to play in only 47 games.
Markkanen has never played in more than 68 games in a season in his career. In five of his eight seasons, he has played fewer than 60 games. He has shot 45.5% from the field for his career, so were his first two seasons with the Jazz a fluke when it comes to his efficiency? The Jazz could be one of the worst teams in the league, so could we see Markkanen rested down the stretch again? When he's at his best, Markkanen is a great fantasy option. However, there are a lot of question marks that make him difficult to rank.
Kristaps Porzingis, Atlanta Hawks 
Porzingis was plagued by a mysterious illness at times last season. It got so bad that he even lost his starting job with the Celtics during the playoffs. He played just 42 games during the regular season, averaging 19.5 points and a career-low 6.8 rebounds. It was the first time that he averaged fewer than 20.0 points in a season since his second season in the NBA.
With the Celtics looking to cut payroll this offseason, Porzingis was traded to the Hawks. He could see time at power forward playing alongside Onyeka Okongwu, or he could spend significant minutes playing center. The Hawks certainly have the depth to play smaller lineups with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Zaccharie Risacher and Luke Kennard all projected to come off the bench. With his ability to rack up blocks and three-pointers, while also providing plenty of scoring, Porzingis can be an extremely valuable fantasy option. However, he has played fewer than 60 games in all but three of his seasons in the league. In what will be his 11th NBA season, it might not be realistic to expect him to remain healthy.
Michael Porter Jr., Brooklyn Nets 
Porter has spent his entire career with the Nuggets. He is coming off one of his most valuable fantasy campaigns, averaging 18.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.5 three-pointers last season, while shooting 50.4% from the field. Still, that didn't stop Denver from trading him to the Nets in a deal that landed them Cameron Johnson and some needed cap flexibility to improve their bench.
Porter will go from being a main running mate for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to a Nets team that doesn't have many scoring options behind Cam Thomas. Porter has never finished a season with a usage rate higher than 22.7%. He could blow past that mark this year, which would seem to increase his fantasy value. However, it's not certain that he will remain on the Nets for the entire season. If he gets traded, he could assume a smaller role with a contender. If he isn't traded, there is the chance that he gets added rest days down the stretch if the Nets are out of the playoff hunt. With an ADP of 61 on Yahoo, Porter has the potential to be a significant value, or a colossal flop.
RJ Barrett, Toronto Raptors 
From a counting stats standpoint, Barrett just had the best season of his career with averages of 21.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.8 three-pointers. However, he shot only 63.0% from the free-throw line and averaged a career-high 2.9 turnovers. He was also limited to 58 games for the second straight season.
The Raptors traded for Brandon Ingram last season, but he didn't play for his new squad because of an ankle injury. Immanuel Quickley was also limited to 33 games because of injuries. With both Ingram and Quickley on the floor this season, Barrett could see his usage rate and opportunities for assists decline. However, Ingram hasn't exactly been a pillar of health, playing 55 or fewer games in three of the last four seasons. If he is sidelined again, Barrett could be thrust right back into a fantasy-friendly role. Even with that in mind, he'll still need to improve his free throw shooting if he's going to live up to his Yahoo ADP of 77.
