This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
DEN at OKC: This series is tied at 3-3.
The winner of this game will face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals.
For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There you can also find player props, futures, picks, articles and sportsbook bonus codes.
Injuries to Monitor
For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.
DEN - Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Jamal Murray (illness), Hunter Tyson (ankle), DaRon Holmes (Achilles)
OKC - Nikola Topic (knee)
Elite Players
Guards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder ($12,200)
SGA battled foul trouble in Game 6, but he still had 45 DraftKings points in another gem. That's the floor we've seen from Gilgeous-Alexander all season, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in all but three games. That looks even better since it's paired with a 54-point average, especially since SGA might be locked into 40-45 minutes and 20-30 shots in this must-win Game 7. Jokic is the safest option on the slate, but SGA is a close second.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets ($9,200)
Murray was ill in Game 6 but came through with another pristine playoff performance. That's simply what Murray has done throughout his tenure, averaging 23.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.1 steals throughout his playoff career. Those numbers are even higher over the last few years, and they seem to improve the deeper Denver gets into these series. Playoff Murray has at least 49 DraftKings points in two of the last three Game 7s Denver has played, and there's no one else in this price range with that type of upside.
Forwards/Centers
Jalen Williams, Thunder ($9,600)
Williams shot 3-for-16 from the field in the Game 6 defeat but still showcased why he was an All-Star this season. He had 36 DraftKings points in that "dud", and now has at least 35 DK points in 15 of his last 16 outings. Williams also has a 41-point average in that span and could be looking at 45 minutes in this must-win Game 7. Using Jokic and SGA together will be nearly impossible, but Williams is the best option if you want to go the Jokic route.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets ($8,200)
We're slightly concerned about Gordon's leg issues because he's been limping his way through this postseason run. In any case, AG has at least 24 DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 fixtures, dropping at least 31 DK points in 11 of those. That's on par with his 34-point average in that span, and Denver needs Gordon out there if they're going to sneak out this Game 7 upset. We also love Gordon's upside, scoring at least 43 fantasy points in three of the first six games in this series.
Expected Chalk
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets ($13,800)
Does anything need to be said here? Jokic has been the best player in DFS for five years now, and he's actually coming off the best statistical season of his career. The three-time MVP led the league with 67 DraftKings points per game while establishing a 50-point floor. There's no safer option if every team were in action, but it's nearly impossible to fade him since Denver is staring down an elimination barrel. In five Game 7s coming into the season, Jokic is averaging 26 points, 16.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game.
Mid-Range Money
Chet Holmgren, Thunder ($8,800)
Holmgren's workload was limited throughout the regular season, but that will not happen in this must-win Game 7. The big man plays over 33 minutes a night across his last four fixtures, scoring at least 41 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. That's what we've been waiting to see, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Holmgren play 40 minutes and take 20 shots in this Game 7. In the three games that Holmgren has played over 35 minutes, he averaged nearly 50 DK points per game this season!
Christian Braun, Nuggets ($7,000)
Everyone talked about Jokic, Murray and Julian Strawther as the heroes in Game 6, but Braun deserves a bow. This third-year breakout had 23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and three steals en route to 54 DK points in that gem. It's a good indicator of how special he was during the regular season, averaging nearly 30 DK points per game. He's also played at least 39 minutes in four straight games and might not come off the floor in this Game 7.
Value Picks
Michael Porter, Nuggets ($5,800)
Rostering MPJ is playing with fire with how he looks right now, but nobody in this price range has Porter's upside. This sharpshooter averaged over 33 DraftKings points per game during the regular season and regularly showcased a 50-point upside. We haven't seen much of that in the postseason, but Porter should be locked into 30 minutes and double-digit shots because he's still been doing that despite the struggles. As long as that's the case, Porter has the ability to go off, and there's no better pairing with studs like Jokic and SGA at this dirt-cheap salary with that type of upside.
Alex Caruso, Thunder ($4,800)
Caruso is the best pound-for-pound defender in the NBA, and he's been a spark off the bench for OKC in this series. AC has scored at least 22 DraftKings points in eight of his last 12 outings, posting a 27-point average in that span. That's all you can ask for from a player in this price range, and we've seen Caruso showcase a 46-point upside earlier in this series. OKC knows they need Caruso's hustle and defense in this must-win game, and it could lead to some massive minutes for this per-minute stud.
