This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
What have we learned so far?
I was on the RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today radio show last Thursday, and co-host Jeff Erickson asked me if any players had already changed their values based on their play in the first week of the season.
I told him not really…but, the obvious caveat are players who got injured like Russell Westbrook. Other than that, I wasn't quite ready to completely re-do my draft board based on whether a player got off to a hot start or not. He followed up by asking whether I had raised Chris Bosh due to his great start and/or lowered Kevin Love after his slower start. My response was that I had entered the season extremely high on Bosh (as Jeff noted, Bosh was my second pick in the league that we are in together) and not as high on Love (who I don't have on any team). So, it wasn't that I had shifted them around in my rankings as much as that their play was confirming my expectations.
Later in the week, Brady Rynyk (@SouthPawProwess) tweeted me (@ProfessorDrz) to ask whether it was too early to drop John Henson in a 16-team H2H league for a guy like Iman Shumpert. The other two experts advised not to drop Henson. He is very talented but just not getting sufficient minutes in Jason Kidd's rotation in Milwaukee. While they weren't convinced that Shumpert would maintain his relatively hotter start (especially once Jose Calderon returns). I agreed with them that I wasn't completely sold on Shumpert (though as a Georgia Tech boy I always wish him the best), but that he shouldn't get too hung up on Henson's talent, because talent without minutes isn't worth much to our fantasy teams.
These two questions and answers help to illustrate how I view the start of the fantasy basketball season. Much like "The Three Bears" story that I read to my daughter, it doesn't pay to be too far to either extreme at the start of the season. On the one hand, you don't just throw out everything you think you know based on one week or two games worth of action. There really are such things as hot or cold streaks that can last that long.
At the time of my interview with Jeff, Damian Lillard was shooting 17-for-54 from the field (31%) through four games, and that average had been brought up from 27 percent through three games by a "scorching" 6-for-13 effort in game four. Lillard is one of the best scorers in the NBA, and he came into the season with a borderline first round pick grade on the RotoWire Cheat Sheet. I would have bet money that his shooting would very quickly revert to the mean, and sure enough, he has shot 19-for-36 in his last three games to start to resemble the player we expected him to be.
On the other hand, you also don't just stand pat no matter what because the start of the year is the best time to pick up free agents. In fact, the players drafted late in the draft, and the undrafted, are the ones that can have the most extreme swings in value early on. While you can expect a superstar to eventually level out, role players on teams that underperform or get into the coach's doghouse could see the bench in real life and lose their opportunity to play starter minutes. (Henson, is that you?) Or, a veteran could settle into a new situation and find an unexpectedly good fit that, even if not fully sustainable, is certainly worthy of attention. (Courtney Lee, we're looking at you.) Or a young guy with great per-minute numbers but little experience could earn the job in the preseason and look like a legitimate fantasy starter. (Yo, Kelly Olynyk.) Or, an injury to a starter could let a bench player post All-Star-caliber numbers for long stretches of the season that couldn't have been predicted when we were drafting. (Hello whoever is healthy enough to score in Oklahoma City.)
The point is, to do well in fantasy basketball in the early season, you should be patient…and pro-active. You should not hesitate to pull the trigger…but you should also trust your preseason expectations. The advice is contradictory if you try to apply it to every situation, but if you apply conservatism to the star players and the aggressiveness to the fringe players, then more times than not, you'll get your team off to the best possible start and set yourself up to be successful in the marathon. We'll start off the next section by looking a bit closer at a few specific cases.
Around the League
Slow starters I expect to recover
Andre Drummond: Drummond had an ADP of 26.1 in Yahoo! leagues, but so far is ranked 217th by production. Some of that ranking is due to his atrocious free throw shooting (37.5% FT), but that was expected coming in. So far, that hasn't even hurt teams that much, since he's attempting only 3.4 FTs/game. What seems to be holding Drummond back the most is foul trouble. He has at least five fouls in five of his seven games so far, which has limited him to only 29 minutes per game and a seeming inability to get into an offensive rhythm (only 42% FG for a career 62% FG player). Drummond showed last season that he was capable of playing 32+ minutes per game without fouling out every night, and his game is built around shots right next to the rim. He should get better as the season progresses.
Paul Millsap: If you just glance at the numbers, Millsap's averages of 14.3 points and 7.2 rebounds thus far look eerily similar to the 14.6 points and 7.1 rebounds that he averaged in his last season in Utah. However, the difference is that this year he is averaging almost 36 minutes per game (as opposed to the just over 30 mpg he was getting in 2012-13 during his last season in Utah), and he's also currently shooting 39.5 percent from the floor (vs. a career average near 50%). Millsap has started the year a bit cold from the floor, but the minutes and opportunity are clearly still there, and he should eventually find his scoring touch.
Eric Bledsoe: Last season, Bledsoe was a bit of a risk because there was so much potential redundancy between he and Goran Dragic. After their success playing together last season, the Suns doubled down by bringing in a third quality point guard in Isaiah Thomas. The result is that if one of the guards has an off night, there are now two others there that could fill their roles. This clearly plays a part in Bledsoe having four games with only 20-some-odd minutes played and three others over 36 minutes played. However, I believe that this will level out as the season goes along with Bledsoe eventually landing more consistently in the low-to-mid 30s of minutes played instead of so much bouncing around. This settling will come with increased consistency, which should good for all involved.
Slow starters that worry me
Carmelo Anthony: I felt coming into the season that the Knicks were a bit of a mess, and I didn't see where their personnel really fit into the triangle offense that Phil Jackson wanted to implement. On top of that, they are employing a first-year head coach in Derek Fisher, and the constant expectations in Gotham seem to far outstrip the abilities of the players on the team. In short, I just didn't like the feel of the entire situation which is part of the reason why I avoided Anthony in drafts. I co-host a podcast called Celtics Beat, and in our season preview episode, both show host Rich Conte and I named Anthony as the star player most likely to be moved by the trade deadline as we just didn't see how this would work out well. I didn't expect Melo to have quite as much trouble scoring as he has, but it plays to my low expectations of the situation, and I do worry about his long-term outlook. There is more wrong there than just cold shooting.
Ty Lawson: Lawson is on this list because he's got the kind of tricky ankle injury that held Stephen Curry down for a few years before he finally got healthy and burst out. The constant spraining and re-spraining of the same ankle is a problem, and one that can linger. I like Lawson a lot as a player, and last year, I tried to get him on as many teams as possible. This year, I'm more apt to stay away unless I can get him on the super cheap from an owner that has soured on him.
What to do with Rose?Derrick Rose played in his fourth game of the season on Monday, scoring 24 points with seven assists and two three-pointers in 32 minutes of action. Great game. The only issue is that it was Rose's fourth game of the season, while the Bulls have played eight. I didn't draft Rose on any of my teams this year because I'm not comfortable with his injury history, but if you did draft him, then you're faced with the dilemma…how long can I safely hold onto this guy without getting burnt?
It's possible that he makes it through the entire season and gets better as the year goes along, but it's also possible that his next jump cut lands him right back on the bench in a suit. My ideal scenario as a Rose owner is that he goes on a good three-week stretch with no injuries, playing well, and then I think I'd bail. I wouldn't fire sale him (because really, what's the point of trading him if you don't get at least some value for his name and potential…after all, that's why you drafted him in the first place), but I'd be pretty aggressive and accept 80 cents on the dollar of what he COULD be for the sake of some piece of mind.
What about Lopez? You know everything I just said about Rose? Underline it and put an exclamation point next to it, and you'll know my sentiment on Brook Lopez. Rose has had repetitive ligament issues that seem tied to his explosiveness, but outside of that, his body type usually is able to have extended NBA careers. Lopez, on the other hand, seems as though he may be cursed with the lower body injuries that have been cutting short the careers of many a promising big man from Sam Bowie to Yao Ming to Greg Oden. I'll never be convinced that his feet will really support him for 70 games in an NBA season…and if they do, I'll congratulate whoever owns him in my league, because it won't be me.
Carter-Williams on deck:Michael Carter-Williams is on track to return to the court on Thursday. He isn't expected to play big minutes early on, but this is a good sign in his recovery. Carter-Williams' future in Philadelphia may have some question marks, but he was a lights-out fantasy performer last season when healthy, and the way is very clear for him to have a similar impact again this season.
New Additions
Courtney Lee (61% owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Lee showed flashes of good play with the Grizzlies last season, and thus far, he has been playing very well this season as well. He's currently shooting better than 54 percent from the floor, which is unsustainable, but he could be a mid-teens scorer with the potential for multiple treys on a nightly basis for the rest of the season.
DeMarre Carroll (59% owned): Carroll is off to a true Garbageman start, with solid contributions in a lot of categories without dominating any one. This combo has him currently ranked 55th by Yahoo. This isn't a fluke either, as he spent most of last year as a top 50-80 player.
Iman Shumpert (47% owned): As I mentioned in the lead, I'm not fully convinced that Shumpert will be able to continue to play at this level all season, especially when Jose Calderon returns if it cuts into his minutes. That said, you have to respect production, and Shumpert is still a young enough player that he can improve. Plus, there's a possibility that his more rugged playing style might endear him to coach Derek Fisher and allow him to maintain a larger than expected role.
Jeremy Lamb (36% owned): Oklahoma City is a mess on offense with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook injured, and somebody has to score. Serge Ibaka and Reggie Jackson are the two top options right now, but they're unavailable in most leagues. (If for some reason you're in one of the 15% of leagues where Jackson is available, stop reading and pick him up right now.) Lamb was injured early but has settled in as the third option with a clear green light. He has taken 41 shots in his first three games and is averaging about 36 minutes per game.
Zach LaVine (9% owned):Ricky Rubio is expected to miss the next 7-8 weeks with a severely sprained left ankle. This opens up the opportunity for rookie Zach LaVine, who has been named the starter in his absence, to establish himself in a big minute time slot for the next couple of months. Mo Williams is also there, and could see some increased minutes even in his role off the bench. Both of them have upside at the moment, with LaVine having both the higher ceiling and lower floor of the two.
Keeping up with the Professor
If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today show with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210.
