ADP Trends: Wide Receiver

Jordy Nelson’s torn ACL last preseason was a massive blow to fantasy owners unlucky enough to have selected him in the first or second round. Of course, the Packers weren’t thrilled either. There haven’t been any such shakeups involving top-end wide receivers since training camp opened in 2016. Those who drafted early this year are fine with that. 

Once again, the ADP data below comes from our friends at National Fantasy Football Championship and is from PPR leagues.

Risers:

Player Team July ADP Current ADP +/-
Malcolm Mitchell NE 369.7 326.5 43.2
James Jones SD 367.3 329.9 37.4
Josh Gordon Cle 207.6 171.7 36.0
DeAndre Smelter SF 367.5 333.3 34.2
Anquan Boldin Det 252.9 225.5 27.4
Terrelle Pryor Cle 362.3 338.5 23.9
Ted Ginn Jr. Car 213.6 190.7 22.9
Bruce Ellington SF 269.3 248.5 20.7
Dontrelle Inman SD 350.9 330.6 20.3
Charles Johnson Min 354.8 335.4 19.4
Davante Adams GB 247.0 227.9 19.2
Tajae Sharpe Ten 325.3 307.0 18.3
Kenny Bell TB 350.4 332.2 18.2
Chris Conley KC 322.1 306.7 15.5
Kenny Stills Mia 309.4 295.8 13.6
Will Fuller Hou 209.1 198.7 10.4
Stefon Diggs Min 107.6 98.0 9.7
Quinton Patton SF 319.8 311.0 8.7
Pharoh Cooper LA 324.3 317.5 6.8
Cecil Shorts III Hou 315.6 309.4 6.2
Brandon Coleman NO 299.3 293.1 6.2
Terrance Williams Dal 175.3 169.6 5.6
Justin Hardy Atl 301.9 296.7 5.1
Mohamed Sanu Atl 140.6 136.1 4.5
Pierre Garcon Was 164.9 160.8 4.1
Braxton Miller Hou 337.5 333.7 3.8

Josh Gordon (+36)
Gordon’s conditional reinstatement is driving his rise back into fantasy relevancy. He will still miss the first four games and there are trade rumors swirling, but Gordon has been practicing with the Browns’ starting unit and his talent has never been in question.

DeAndre Smelter (+34.2), Bruce Ellington (+20.7), Quinton Patton (+8.7)
This 49ers trio is riding an uptempo wave of Chip Kelly volume. Ellingon and Patton deserve the bump as they are all but locked in as starters along with Torrey Smith in San Francisco’s base three-wide set. Smelter, on the other hand, is raw as rain and the fantasy community should probably pump the brakes. The second-year receiver is not practicing due to a lingering hamstring injury and that’s after missing almost two years of action since tearing his ACL at Georgia Tech.

Tajae Sharpe (+18.3)
It was only a matter of time for Sharpe to start rising up draft boards. Those who didn’t believe in his quick accent to the top of Tennessee’s depth chart were forced to take notice when Dorial Green-Beckham was shipped to Philly. Sharpe and QB Marcus Mariota have already created a nice rapport, which should cause the rookie’s stock to continue upward.

Cecil Shorts (+6.2), Braxton Miller (+3.8)
It’s odd that two players vying for the same targets are both climbing slightly. Miller is the WR to own here as he is seeing the field before Shorts as the main slot receiver in Houston’s first two preseason contests. In fact, one could argue that Miller outscores fellow rookie Will Fuller in PPR leagues with his role as the underneath guy in coach Bill O’Brien’s offense.

Fallers:

Player Team July ADP Current ADP +/-
Josh Doctson Was 121.1 153.0 -31.9
TJ Jones Det 297.6 321.2 -23.5
Robert Woods Buf 189.8 212.2 -22.4
Eddie Royal Chi 292.1 312.9 -20.8
Jermaine Kearse Sea 212.4 230.5 -18.1
Stevie Johnson SD 233.8 251.6 -17.9
Chris Hogan NE 139.0 156.3 -17.3
Jamison Crowder Was 231.0 246.2 -15.2
Jeff Janis GB 213.9 228.7 -14.8
Torrey Smith SF 101.8 114.9 -13.1
Kendall Wright Ten 190.0 201.6 -11.6
Jaelen Strong Hou 274.6 286.1 -11.4
Kamar Aiken Bal 133.0 144.1 -11.1
Leonte Carroo Mia 290.8 301.6 -10.9
J.J. Nelson Ari 275.6 285.4 -9.8
Phillip Dorsett Ind 128.3 137.9 -9.6
Sammie Coates Pit 144.4 152.7 -8.3
Sterling Shepard NYG 88.0 96.2 -8.2
Darrius Heyward-Bey Pit 311.4 319.0 -7.6
Rashad Greene Jax 321.9 329.4 -7.5
Mike Wallace Bal 140.9 148.2 -7.3
Devin Funchess Car 157.6 163.7 -6.1
Seth Roberts Oak 261.5 267.4 -5.9
Vincent Jackson TB 117.6 123.1 -5.5
DeSean Jackson Was 79.0 84.4 -5.4

Josh Doctson (-31.9), Jamison Crowder (-15.2), DeSean Jackson (-5.4)
Washington receivers are going through a reverse scenario of the above 49ers, and like those three out west, it’s not all warranted. Doctson, obviously, is being dinged for his inability to get on the field.  The talented first rounder in April’s NFL Draft has been dealing with an achilles injury, leaving his availability for week 1 in doubt. His competition, Crowder and Jackson, should probably not be slipping down draft boards as a result.

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Sterling Shepard (-8.2)
The Shepard market is correcting a bit after his stock soared from early camp reports of his route running ability and likely starting role. Shepard, though, has only caught one ball in two preseason games and will always have somewhat limited upside as the No. 2 to Odell Beckham. A bit of a low ceiling, high floor prospect.

Torrey Smith (-13.1)
Smith’s value has been all over the place since the end of 2015. After the 49ers hired Chip Kelly, Smith’s stock began a steady climb from the 13th round range toward the top-100 overall. Now, after not showing much production through two exhibition games with sub par quarterback play from Blaine Gabbert, Smith has settled back into the 9/10 turn area. This is likely where his ADP will stabilize, which could turn out to be a bargain with the potential negative game scripts and volume in San Francisco.