Health-Neutral Fantasy Football Rankings

On Monday, I posted my Opportunity-Neutral Rankings, i.e., how players would rank if they all had the same number of attempts/carries/targets. Today we’ll eliminate a different variable: health. These rankings are assuming every player were 100 percent healthy for every game in which they’re eligible (suspensions are still counted against them, however). For these I used PPR:

1 Aaron Rodgers Jamaal Charles Calvin Johnson Rob Gronkowski
2 Peyton Manning LeSean McCoy Demaryius Thomas Jimmy Graham
3 Drew Brees Adrian Peterson Julio Jones Julius Thomas
4 Robert Griffin Matt Forte Dez Bryant Jordan Cameron
5 Nick Foles Arian Foster Jordy Nelson Greg Olsen
6 Andrew Luck DeMarco Murray A.J. Green Vernon Davis
7 Tony Romo Eddie Lacy Brandon Marshall Jordan Reed
8 Tom Brady Montee Ball Alshon Jeffery Dennis Pitta
9 Matt Ryan C.J. Spiller Keenan Allen Jason Witten
10 Cam Newton Giovani Bernard Randall Cobb Zach Ertz
11 Matt Stafford Le’Veon Bell Andre Johnson Kyle Rudolph
12 Colin Kaepernick Ryan Mathews Vincent Jackson Charles Clay
13 Jay Cutler Zac Stacy Antonio Brown LaDarius Green
14 Russell Wilson Doug Martin Victor Cruz Martellus Bennett
15 Philip Rivers Shane Vereen Percy Harvin Dwayne Allen
16 Ben Roethlisberger Rashad Jennings Wes Welker Heath Miller
17 Alex Smith Marshawn Lynch Michael Floyd Tyler Eifert
18 Johnny Manziel Andre Ellington Jeremy Maclin Garrett Graham
19 EJ Manuel Pierre Thomas Pierre Garcon Jared Cook
20 Jake Locker Reggie Bush Michael Crabtree Eric Ebron
21 Alfred Morris Larry Fitzgerald
22 Ben Tate Cordarrelle Patterson
23 Bishop Sankey Roddy White
24 Joique Bell T.Y. Hilton
25 Toby Gerhart DeSean Jackson
26 Ray Rice Marques Colston
27 Darren Sproles Torrey Smith
28 Chris Johnson Eric Decker
29 Steven Jackson Cecil Shorts
30 Maurice Jones-Drew Kendall Wright

The beneficiaries are obviously the injury-prone players like Rob Gronkowski, Julio Jones, Arian Foster, Ryan Mathews, Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray. Durable players like Jason Witten, Vernon Davis and Alfred Morris slip down. If you believe injuries are, to a large extent, random, these lists offer an idea of who’s undervalued and overvalued based on misperceptions about health. Of course, Darren McFadden, who used to rank highly on these lists, is a reminder not to buy into the “injuries are random” school entirely.