My Personal Draft Kit

Instead of making my own cheat sheet from scratch this year, I decided to put together a hybrid NFBC/algorithmic projections one. But no cheat sheet, no matter how well calibrated, is sufficient to prepare you for competitive drafts. One problem is that projected stats are 50th-percentile estimates of a player’s possible outcomes, and as you get deeper into the draft, the 50th-percentile output becomes less and less important. What you’re looking for is optionality, i.e., what could go right?

To that end, you need to be aware of potential playing time opportunities (as well as likely avenues for skills growth). A cheat sheet lists players in order, but not in context. For context you need depth charts, and I rely on them heavily, while clicking through to the player pages and learning more about their skill sets. But instead of building my findings into a cheat sheet this year, I decided to make a list of key findings I can use to supplement my hybrid one. These are the key things I want to know as I’m crossing off players during my draft:

Sleepers Team Closers Team CIW Players I like Players I don’t
Marcus Semien A’s Blake Treinen A’s Soria/Rodney Matt Harvey Alex Bregman
Ramon Laureano A’s Cody Allen Angels Buttrey Willians Astudillo George Springer
Zach Cozart Angels Roberto Osuna Astros Pressley Gary Sanchez Jesus Aguilar
Max Stassi Astros Ken Giles Blue Jays Norris Carlos Correa Matt Carpenter
Tyler White Astros Vizcaino/Minter Braves Minter Jose Altuve Javy Baez
Aledmys Diaz Astros Knebel/Hader Brewers Hader Michael Brantley Antony Rizzo
Wade Miley Astros Hicks/Miller Cards Miller Jurickson Profar Ian Happ
Dansby Swanson Braves Strop/Morrow Cubs Edwards Vlad Guerrero Robbie Ray
Orlando Arcia Brewers Bradley/Holland/Hirano D-Backs Hirano Josh Donaldson Zack Godley
Jimmy Nelson Brewers Kenley Jansen Dodgers Ronald Acuna Shane Bieber
Tyler O’Neill Cardinals Will Smith Giants Melancon Mike Foltynewicz Mike Clevinger
Harrison Bader Cardinals Brad Hand Indians Marcell Ozuna Corey Kluber
Wilmer Flores D-Backs Strickland/Swarzak Mariners Kris Bryant Cody Bellinger
Luke Weaver D-Backs Romo/Steckenrider/Conley Marlins Yu Darvish Nick Pivetta
Drew Pomeranz Giants Edwin Diaz Mets Familia Wilmer Flores Jameson Taillon
Greg Allen Indians Sean Doolittle Nationals Rosenthal Pedro Strop Michael Conforto
Marco Gonzalez Mariners Mychal Givens Orioles Scott Archie Bradley
Felix Hernandez Mariners Kirby Yates Padres Stammen Corey Seager
Lewis Brinson Marlins David Robertson Phillies Dominguez Walker Buehler
Jose Urena Marlins Felipe Vazquez Pirates Kela Mark Melancon
Jeff McNeil Mets Jose LeClerc Rangers Chavez/Kelley Tyler Glasnow
Trevor Rosenthal Nationals Jose Alvarado Rays D. Castillo Byron Buxton
Michael Taylor Nationals Barnes/Braiser Red Sox Zach Eflin
Matt Adams Nationals Iglesias Reds Hernandez Francisco Cervelli
Jeremy Hellickson Nationals Wade Davis Rockies Oh Charlie Morton
Mark Trumbo Orioles Boxberger/Peralta Royals Steven Matz
Chance Sisco Orioles Shane Greene Tigers Jimenez Rafael Devers
Richie Martin Orioles Trevor May Twins Parker Stephen Strasburg
Maikel Franco Phillies Herrera/Colome White Sox Herrera Nick Senzel
Jake Arrieta Phillies Chapman Yankees Betances/Britton Daniel Murphy
Vince Velasquez Phillies Garrett Hampson
Zach Eflin Phillies Wade Davis
Elias Diaz Pirates Miguel Cabrera
Jung Ho Kang Pirates Masahiro Tanaka
Gregory Polanco Pirates J.A. Happ
Willie Calhoun Rangers
Mike Minor Rangers
Lance Lynn Rangers
Shelby Miller Rangers
Willy Adames Rays
Avisail Garcia Rays
Steve Pearce Red Sox
Anthony Desclafani Reds
Mark Reynolds Rockies
Garrett Hampson Rockies
Kyle Freeland Rockies
Jon Gray Rockies
Ramil Tapia Rockies
Jorge Soler Royals
Brett Phillips Royals
John Hicks Tigers
Ronny Rodriguez Tigers
Victor Reyes Tigers
Michael Fulmer Tigers
Mitch Garver Twins
Michael Pineda Twins
Martin Perez Twins
Lucas Giolito White Sox
Troy Tulowitzki Yankees
Clint Frazier Yankees

 

Catchers Team Prospects Team Injured Duration Multi Pos Pos DH-only
Hermann/Phegley/Hundley A’s Franklin Barretto A’s Francisco Lindor April Adam Frazier 2B-OF Y. Diaz
Lucroy Angels Jesus Luzardo A’s Luis Severino April Alcides Escobar 3B-SS K. Davis
Chirinos/Stassi Astros Jorge Mateo A’s Mike Foltynewicz April Aledmys Diaz 3B-SS N. Cruz
Danny Jansen/Maile Blue Jays Jo Adell Angels Luiz Gohara April Alen Hanson 2B-OF Ohtani
McCann/Flowers Braves Luis Rengifo Angels Cesar Hernandez April Alex Bregman 3B-SS Choi
Grandal/Pina Brewers Griffin Canning Angels Kelvin Herrera April Asdrubal Cabrera 2B-3B-SS Trumbo
Yadier Molina/Knizner Cardinals Josh James Astros Aaron Hicks April Ben Zobrist 2B-OF Morales
Contreras/Caratini Cubs Kyle Tucker Astros Clayton Kershaw April Blake Swihart C-OF
Kelly/Avila/Murphy D-Backs Forrest Whitley Astros Howie Kendrick April Brad Miller 1B-2B
Austin Barnes/Martin Dodgers Myles Straw Astros Jimmy Nelson April Brandon Dixon 1B-OF
Buster Posey Giants Corbin Martin Astros Roman Quinn April Brian Anderson OF-3B
Roberto Perez/Plawecki Indians Corey Ray Astros Mallex Smith April Brock Holt 2B-SS
Omar Narvaez Mariners Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays Mike Soroka April Chad Pinder 2B-OF
Jorge Alfaro Marlins Vlad Guerrero Blue Jays Carlos Martinez TBD Charlie Culberson SS-3B-OF
Wilson Ramos Mets Billy McKinney Blue Jays Brandon Morrow May Chris Taylor SS-OF
Yan Gomes/Kurt Suzuki Nationals Bo Bichette Blue Jays Gregory Polanco May Corey Spangenberg 2B-3B
Chance Sisco/Austin Wynns Orioles Mike Soroka Braves Miguel Sano May Daniel Descalso 2B-3B
Mejia/Hedges Padres Touki Toussaint Braves Shohei Ohtani May Daniel Robertson 2B-SS
Realmuto Phillies Austin Riley Braves Addison Russell May David Fletcher 2B-3B
Cervelli/Diaz Pirates Bryse Wilson Braves Dinelson Lamet June Dee Gordon 2B-OF
Kiner-Falefa/Mathis Rangers Kyle Wright Braves Danny Salazar June Eduardo Escobar 3B-SS
Zunino/Perez Rays Corbin Burnes Brewers Bradley Zimmer July Eduardo Nunez 2B-3B
Swihart/Vazquez/Leon Red Sox Keston Hiura Brewers Didi Gregorius July Eric Sogard 2B-SS
Barnhart/Casali Reds Alex Reyes Cardinals Jordan Montgomery July Eric Thames 1B-OF
Iannetta/Wolters/Murphy Rockies Andrew Knizer Cardinals Taijuan Walker July Gleyber Torres 2B-SS
Gallagher/Viloria Royals Jon Duplantier D-Backs A.J. Puk July Hernan Perez 2B-3B-SS-OF
Greiner/Hicks Tigers Alex Verdugo Dodgers Sean Manaea ASB Hunter Dozier 1B-3B
Castro/Garver/Astudillo Twins Dennis Santana Dodgers Bretnt Honeywell ASB Ian Desmond 1B-OF
Wellington Castillo/McCann White Sox Dustin May Dodgers Ian Happ 3B-OF
Gary Sanchez/Romine Yankees Jake Bauers Indians Isiah Kiner-Falefa C-2B-3B
Justus Sheffield Mariners Jace Peterson 3B-OF
Triston McKenzie Mariners Javier Baez 2B-3B-SS
Justin Dunn Mariners Joey Gallo 1B-OF
Victor Mesa Marlins Joey Wendle 2B-3B
Monte Harrison Marlins John Hicks C-1B
Peter Alonso Mets Jose Bautista 3B-OF
Jeff McNeill Mets Jose Martinez 1B-OF
Victor Robles Nationals Jose Pirela 2B-OF
Yusniel Diaz Orioles Jose Reyes 3B-SS
Ryan Mountcastle Orioles Jurickson Profar 1B-3B-SS
Fernando Tatis Padres Ketel Marte 2B-SS
Luis Urias Padres Kike Hernandez 2B-SS-OF
Chris Paddack Padres Kris Bryant 3B-OF
Logan Allen Padres Lourdes Gurriel 2B-SS
Andres Munoz Padres Marwin Gonzalez 1B-2B-SS-OF
Scott Kingery Phillies Matt Carpenter 1B-3B
Adam Haseley Phillies Max Muncy 1B-3B
Kevin Kramer Pirates Miguel Rojas 1B-3B-SS
Mitch Keller Pirates Neil Walker 1B-2B-3B
Colin Poche Rays Niko Goodrum 1B-2B
Brandon Lowe Rays Pablo Sandoval 1B-3B
Brent Honeywell Rays Russell Martin C-3B
Nate Lowe Rays Tim Beckham 3B-SS
Nick Solak Rays Travis Shaw 2B-3B
Michael Chavis Red Sox Whit Merrifield 2B-OF
Bobby Dalbec Red Sox Wil Myers 3B-OF
Nick Senzel Reds Wilmer Difo 2B-3B
Tony Santillan Reds Yadiel Rivera 3B-SS
Brendan Rodgers Rockies Yairo Munoz 2B-3B-SS-OF
Tyler Nevin Rockies Yangervis Solarte 2B-3B
Colton Welker Rockies Yuli Gurriel 1B-3B
Casey Mize Tigers
Daz Cameron Tigers
Matt Manning Tigers
Jeff Kirilloff Twins
Eloy Jimenez White Sox
Dylan Cease White Sox
Nick Madrigal White Sox
Clint Frazier Yankees
Jonathan Loaisiga Yankees
Clarke Schmidt Yankees
Deivi Garcia Yankees

A few notes on the categories:

Sleepers aren’t necessarily players I think *will* be good, just those that have a chance and a modicum of skills to overperform their low draft costs. Players I like are those who are going at too much of a discount, and those I don’t like are too expensive. But that I don’t like Alex Bregman as a first-round pick doesn’t mean I wouldn’t still take him over Carlos Correa (who I like.) It’s just that the gap between them should be one round (Bregman in 2, Correa in 3) rather than three.

Closers and closers in waiting are important to know, no matter their projections. Some closers in waiting are left blank because I have no idea who would get the job if the current closer loses it.

The rest are fairly self-explanatory. Catchers, prospects (all of those who were in James Anderson’s top 200 and who have an ETA of 2018 or 2019), players with dual eligibility and injured players.

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