The postseason has not gone very well. I should say the Division Series, although had I continued the project into the NLCS, I might be in the red for the year.
I admittedly still owe a "lessons learned" post, and I will get that up, probably after the postseason and my annual Arizona Fall League trip. This blog did fall by the wayside a bit lately, a function not of any lost love for Rotowire…well, Liss is annoying…but all the work I’ve been doing for SI, SI.com and my newsletter.
I think there’s a real opportunity tonight, though, and I want to get this up early enough to take advantage of it. There’s an idea out there that Cliff Lee has some special ability to pitch in the postseason. It’s wrong; Lee is a great pitcher who has had a series of fantastic postseason starts. The two are different, and that difference creates an advantage. The Rangers are favored tonight entirely because of Lee. They’re on the road, facing the two-time Cy Young Award winner, down a bat in their lineup, using a starter in Lee who, while very talented, is a southpaw facing a team that is loaded with right-handed power.
The key for me is that Lincecum is being underrated, and beyond that underrated against this particular team. Lincecum eats right-handed batters, and thanks to Ron Washington, he’ll face six of them, plus a pitcher. There’s no rationale outside of "Cliff Lee is super duper!!!" to favor the Rangers tonight, and that view completely misses that the other guy has been better in every season of their careers.
Giants +116, three units.
Giants -1.5 (+260), .5 units
Giants to have highest-scoring inning, +190, .5 units
This is my overall pick, so…
Rangers in seven, +450, .5 units
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