I'm going to try to blog fairly regularly in the next few weeks about some of the players that I had a really hard time projecting this offseason. We'll start off on the pitching side of the ledger, which is hard enough to do for those without any extenuating circumstances. But when you factor in role fluctuations, injuries, or a lack of bankable track record, it becomes that much harder.
For today, I'm going to focus on a select few that are returning from injuries.
Mike Hampton - He's pretty much an annual inclusion in this category. How do you project someone who hasn't pitched a full season since 2004? There's just a lack of useful data to work with. The easy way out would be to give him 5-10 starts and say everything else is just gravy, but I still believe he's going to make it through this season without an arm injury. So, here's what I ended up with:
G GS W L S IP H ER HR BB K WHIP ERA
24 24 8 7 0 139 152 67 14 47 67 1.432 4.34
This is possibly too optimistic, given his results last year, but keep in mind he was essentially coming back from a three-year layoff last year.
Chris Carpenter - Two things make Carpenter so difficult. One, he's had so many setbacks and restarts in his rehab, and now a subsequent surgery. Two, he was such an elite pitcher before the injury, that I can't just readily dismiss him. He had nerve relocation surgery in November and will start a throwing program in January. There's very little chance of him being at full speed for the start of the season, and once he's throwing in earnest, everything could change. Nonetheless, here's his current projection:
G GS W L S IP H ER HR BB K WHIP ERA
18 18 6 6 0 109 106 43 10 27 90 1.220 3.550
It basically assumes that we won't see him until mid-to-late May, and he might have a short DL stint during the season. Watch his walk rate when he first returns - that'll be a good indicator if he's close to vintage form, or needs more time to return to something resembling his peak level.
Erik Bedard - To hear some of the criticism leveled at Bedard during the Mariners' collapse, you'd have thought that he combined the performance of Carlos Silva with the attitude of Mr. Operation Shutdown, Derek Bell. And while his performance was below the standards set by his wonderful 2007 season, Bedard really wasn't all that bad last year. His 3.67 ERA was below his 2006 rate. His strikeout rate was in line with every other year but 2007. But he was a lightning rod because (a) the Mariners were underperfoming as a team so badly; (b) he got hurt and didn't communicate his injury very well; (c) the trade for him signaled the Mariners' desire to win immediately, and gave away the store in terms of their top prospects; and (d) the losing didn't seem to destroy him enough that he show to the fans. Ignore the soft factors when evaluating Bedard this year, and instead focus on health and ability - issues that really matter. He could very well be a pretty good bounceback candidate. My projection for him:
G GS W L S IP H ER HR BB K WHIP ERA
27 27 11 9 0 161 138 62 16 59 166 1.22 3.465
Micah Owings - Between Owings' health status (shoulder), his hitting ability and recent poor performance on the mound, trying to figure out what the Reds intend to do with Owings is awfully difficut. Right now he's just one of a slew of fifth starter prospects, competing with Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney and Ramon Ramirez, among others, for the job. Frankly, I don't have the first clue on what he'll end up doing this year.
My projection:
G GS W L S IP H ER HR BB K WHIP ERA
10 10 3 4 0 61 59 35 8 22 47 1.328 5.16
Others that could fall in this category: Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano, Rafael Soriano
Feel free to suggest others, and share your opinion on not just the ones we've covered, but others that you want to talk about.