Atlanta (-2) at Arizona, Saturday 4:30 p.m.
Sure, the Cardinals have been reeling, but this is a team with a QB who got 7.8 YPA and a 17:5 TD:INT ratio at home this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta has a rookie signal caller who has sputtered of late and been far less impressive on the road all year (9.5 YPA at home, 6.8 YPA on the road). Additionally, Michael Turner has gotten only three of his 17 rushing TDs away from home in 2008. I'm not saying the Falcons aren't legit, because they are, but this game is easily a toss up. In a shootout, homefield is the difference.
Indianapolis (-1) at San Diego, Saturday 8 p.m.
The Colts have won nine games in a row and have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the history of the National Football League this season (six). Peyton Manning has got 9.6 YPA with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio over the past four games, and with Tom Brady out of commission, he's without question the NFL's best player. Over that span, he's completed a ridiculous 81.8 percent of his passes with a silly 130.8 QB rating. Unfortunately, a serious knee injury really affected his early season play, and last I checked, the MVP award accounted for a full season, making Philip Rivers the clear choice for 2008. The Chargers have been mostly disappointing all year, but the team enters with a four-game winning streak, as the offense has averaged a passable 37.3 points over that time frame. San Diego's defense isn't any good, but they have consistently played Indy tough, and even if LaDainian Tomlinson is limited, it might be a blessing in disguise; Darren Sproles has gotten 7.5 yards per touch this season (Tomlinson has got 4.5). Rivers has been the best player in the NFL this year; Manning might very well be the best NFL player ever. Saturday night's game is easily the best of the weekend.
Baltimore (-3) at Miami, Sunday 1 p.m.
Miami went 9-1 over its last 10 games and committed the fewest turnovers (13) in the history of the league. This after finishing 1-15 last season. It wasn't a fluke – Chad Pennington got 7.7 YPA and protected the football. Still, the secondary is beatable, and despite an 11-5 record, their average margin of victory discounting special teams and defensive scores was 1.8 points. Meanwhile, the Ravens are a sleeping giant, going 9-2 over their last 11 games, with the only losses coming against the Giants and Steelers – quite possibly the NFL's two best teams. Their defense has allowed 3.6 YPC with an NFL-low four rushing scores to go along with just 5.9 YPA, a league-high 26 interceptions and an NFL-worst 60.6 opposing QB rating. The only reason Baltimore's defense isn't widely regarded as the best in football is because Pittsburgh's D just finished up a historical season. Moreover, the Ravens' ground game ranks fourth in the NFL, and the coaching is a big asset as well. Few rookie quarterbacks win in the playoffs, but Joe Flacco is hardly the norm, getting 7.3 YPA with a 10:5 TD:INT ratio on the road during his first year in the league. Miami is an extremely sound team that won't beat itself. Still, this is the most lopsided matchup of the weekend. The Dolphins winning wouldn't be quite as improbable as this outcome, but it would be pretty surprising.
Philadelphia (-3) at Minnesota, Sunday 4:30 p.m.
The Eagles are 4-1 over their last five games and possess the talent to beat any team in the league. However, their in-game coaching remains a big problem, and the team is anything but consistent, scoring just three points against a middling Washington squad just two weeks ago. The defense is extremely dangerous, having not allowed more than 14 points in a game in more than a month. However, Brian Westbrook hasn't reached 55 rushing yards or scored in any of the past three games, so he may not be quite as healthy as his Weeks 13 and 14 suggested. Moreover, Donovan McNabb has gotten just 6.4 YPA with an 8:8 TD:INT ratio on the road this year (15:3 TD:INT ratio at home). Philadelphia has one of the best run defenses in football, which is bad news for a Minnesota team heavily reliant on Adrian Peterson, who better fix his fumbling problem by Sunday. Jim Johnson's blitzes could cause major problems for the still at times shaky Tarvaris Jackson, but he's played extremely well over the past four games and may have turned the corner. Ultimately it comes down to what Eagles team shows up, but since their passing attack is rather pedestrian, don't be shocked by an upset.