I'm working on my 2009 MLB Win Totals story (67 percent correct over last nine years) and it should debut this weekend ( a little later than I quoted to some folks).
Here's the slate of odds I'm working from that I pulled on Tuesday from Sportsbook.com. If forced to bet on every team on this list, here's where I stand.
In my article I only bet a few selections. So you'll have to wait for those. Do you agree with my choices below?
Boston Red Sox 94.5 - Over. But barely.
New York Yankees 94.5 - Under. PECOTA has them near 100 wins. I bet A-Rod misses much of the year (trying to avoid surgery never seems to work).
Chicago Cubs 92 - Under. They killed me two years in a row with under bets. Why stop now? I didn't like most of their offseason moves as they took on unnecessary risk (Milton Bradley) and traded of much of their depth with little return. Still, my track record on them is terrible.
New York Mets 89 - Over. As long as Santana is healthy, the should be in the hunt in the NL East.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 89 - Over. They have the young talent to sustain last year's big improvement - even in the tough AL East.
Cleveland Indians 88.5 - Over. They should bounce back but I worry about the rotation.
Philadelphia Phillies 88.5 - Under. Always fade the World Series winner. Average decline of 8.5 wins since 1975.
Los Angeles Angels 88.5 - Under. Played 12 wins over last year's projected Pythagorean W-L.
Los Angeles Dodgers 88.5 - Over. Manny for a full year, O. Hudson should offset loss of Derek Lowe.
Arizona Diamondbacks 86.5 - Over. I'm still sold on the group of young hitters to break out.
Minnesota Twins 84 - Under. The offense was fluky last year with a very high batting average with runners in scoring position. But I'm a Twins fan, so I hope this is wrong.
Atlanta Braves 83.5 - Over. More stable starting pitching should help offset a weak outfield.
Oakland Athletics 82.5 - Over. A's have beat the line 7 of last 8 years. Don't underestimate Billy Beane.
St. Louis Cardinals 82.5 - Under. Tough team to read. I wouldn't think they finish +/- a few wins of this.
Detroit Tigers 81.5 - Over. With the offense likely to score 800+ runs again, the pitching only needs a moderate bounceback to be in the AL Central hunt.
Milwaukee Brewers 81.5 - Under. Love the young hitting. But not sure they find replacements for Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia until 2010.
San Francisco Giants 79.5 - Under. Still too many old hitters despite a nice rotation.
Cincinnati Reds 79 - Over. I'm not a Dusty Baker fan, but lots of young players to get excited about.
Toronto Blue Jays 78 - Over. Played 7 wins under last year's projected Pythagorean W-L.
Chicago White Sox 77.5 - Under. Hated their offseason moves. But my Twins bias may enter the equation.
Colorado Rockies 77 - Under. Despite Chris Liss' post, I'm not sold on the rotation or bullpen.
Kansas City Royals 76.5 - Over. The top of the rotation is underrated. And lots of hitters could make big improvements.
Florida Marlins 75 - Over. Everyone loves that young rotation, right?
Texas Rangers 73.5 - Over. Even if they can't pitch, they'll still score 850 runs.
Houston Astros 73.5 - Under. Lots of old players and terrible OBAs.
Seattle Mariners 73.5 - Over. I like that the new GM cleared the chaff of the prior regime. That alone should be worth a 10-game improvement.
Baltimore Orioles 72.5 - Over. Andy McPhail has the team on the upswing despite the brutally tough division.
Washington Nationals 72 - Under. They're going to be worse before they get better. It takes at least a year to get rid of the stink of a Jim Bowden-run organization.
San Diego Padres 71.5 - Under. They're selling off anything that isn't nailed down to save money.
Pittsburgh Pirates 69 - Over. Aren't they due for a dumb luck 75-win season?