1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Hitting: Orlando Hudson should be an asset when not hurt, but Casey Blake is consistently overrated by media types who care about things like being a "clubhouse leader." Still, James Loney should improve, and a healthy Rafael Furcal would really help. I do worry about Russell Martin getting so overworked, but the outfield is a major strength. Manny Ramirez will be a big liability on defense, but I have to disagree with the statisticians who think he's only worth 1-2 wins.
Pitching: The Dodgers are hardly a juggernaut, but this is the year Chad Billingsley should become a true ace, and while Clayton Kershaw will likely battle control problems, he'll still be awfully tough to hit. Hiroki Kuroda is a solid No. 3, while Randy Wolf and James McDonald form a fine back end of the rotation. The bullpen isn't all that deep, but Jonathan Broxton is a shutdown closer, and only health can halt the unstoppable force that is Hong-Chih Kuo – he had an OK 44:2 K:BB ratio over 26 innings against lefties last season.
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
Hitting: The Diamondbacks could easily win the West this year, but they'll need their position players to really step up, as the rotation and bullpen aren't quite as deep as the Dodgers'. Felipe Lopez wasn't a bad signing, but he's hardly a difference maker, and while Mark Reynolds will hit a bunch of homers, he won't be all that valuable while doing so. Stephen Drew could take the next step, but Conor Jackson's development, especially in the power department, has been a big disappointment. Chris Young and Justin Upton could blow up, but that will be a necessity for them to win the division. Arizona's highest paid position player will act as its fourth outfielder.
Pitching: While depth may be an issue, the front of the D-Backs' rotation has the potential to be the best in the NL. Still, Brandon Webb has been worked hard over the past few seasons, and Max Scherzer is a big injury risk. Dan Haren was the second best pitcher in the NL last season, and he's a threat to win the Cy Young in 2009. Jon Garland was a curious signing, but Chad Qualls could be an effective closer despite the lack of name recognition. The team really needs Jon Rauch to step it up.
3. San Francisco Giants
Hitting: Last year the Giants hit by far the fewest homers in baseball – 23 fewer than the second least in the NL (the Nationals). The offense should be improved in 2009, but it still figures to be among the worst in baseball. Travis Ishikawa and Emmanuel Burriss have excelled this spring, but they will form a below average hitting right side of the infield. As for the left side, Pablo Sandoval's bat is for real, but he and Edgar Renteria should form one of the worst defensive combos in the sport. To only Brian Sabean's surprise, Aaron Rowand saw his OPS drop 140 points after signing a $60 million contract last year. Even more disturbing, after finishing with a strong 8.4 UZR/150 in 2007, he dropped all the way to -7.3 last season, so his defense declined even more than his bat. As a Giants fan myself, I let my emotions get the best of me when I ran into Rowand at a bar last weekend in SF, and here was the result.
Pitching: Some claim the Giants have a chance at winning the West this season, and while I disagree, it's their pitching that is the reason. Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez could form a deadly foursome, especially if "dirty" can take the next step and truly break out. If Lincecum can remain healthy after getting badly abused by the inept Giants management last year, he could be the most valuable player in baseball, and Johnson will be effective as long as his balky back cooperates. Cain, however, looks unlikely to ever reach his once perceived ceiling. He's younger than Lincecum, so there's still time, but improved command is a must, and his fastball has lost some velocity. If Barry Zito can turn into a league average fifth starter, San Francisco would be thrilled. If the team took him to court, there would at least be a preponderance of evidence he was stealing from the franchise.
4. Colorado Rockies
Hitting: Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki look like bounce back candidates, while Chris Iannetta appears primed to develop into one of baseball's best hitting backstops. However, Garrett Atkins' career has taken a turn in the wrong direction, and three of the team's best hitters (Dexter Fowler, Ian Stewart and Carlos Gonzalez) aren't quite ready to be so just yet. Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith aren't bad in the meantime, but there isn't a worse defensive outfielder than Brad Hawpe.
Pitching: While the hitting has upside, Colorado's pitching ultimately leaves them as a fourth place team. Ubaldo Jimenez has potential, but no pitcher in the history of the franchise has ever posted even a 3.20 ERA at Coors Field in a season. It's nice to see Franklin Morales back on the scene, but this is a team that will be allowing a bunch of runs this season. Expect Huston Street to get most of the saves during the season's first half and then get dealt before the deadline.
5. San Diego Padres
Hitting: This is going to get ugly. San Diego's ownership has been forced to go cheap, in part because of a divorce, and the result will be a last place finish in 2009. Adrian Gonzalez deserves better, and I'm putting the over/under for Luis Gonzalez's OPS this year at .650. It would be an upset if the Padres don't finish the season with the fewest runs scored in major league baseball.
Pitching: Jake Peavy is terrific, but there's still a chance he gets traded, and the 3-5 starters are a big problem even with Petco on their side. The team needs a strong campaign from Chris Young, but he can't stay healthy and has seen a big dip in velocity this spring (although he claims that's normal for this time of year). There's really little to like here, and the future doesn't offer much hope either.