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Stay For a Nightcap! - Regression To the Mean Saturday Edition

They Are Who We Thought They Were:
- After hitting .205 through his first 13 games with no home runs and three RBI, Josh Hamilton has gone 15-for-44 with four bombs and nine RBI, including a solo blast off Felix Hernandez today. Vernon Wells has stepped up as the 'Will Rake When Healthy' poster boy, but Hamilton is another guy who can kill the ball when he's 100|PERCENT|. And right now, he's 100|PERCENT|.
-Miguel Olivo struck out all three times he came to the plate, and is 3-for his last-17 with seven K's.
-Mark Reynolds hit his eighth and ninth home runs, and got his batting average up to .253. He's only stolen one base so far though. Reynolds' power is reliable, but nothing else from last season's stat line is.
-Carlos Silva gave up three home runs Saturday (two of them to Reynolds) and five total runs in five innings to bump his ERA to 2.90. Worse, he walked three more batters. His 2005 was driven by a ridiculously extreme BB/9 rate; without it, he's a guy who gives up too many hits, with too many of them leaving the yard, to be useful.
-Mike Napoli went 2-for-4 with two doubles, on the back of a triple (!) Friday night. It's just a matter of time before those start leaving the park. More importantly for his playing time he also made a good defensive play, blocking off the plate as Hideki Matsui tried to score from second on a Juan Rivera single.
-In a 1-1 game, Dusty Baker leaves Homer Bailer in to face Albert Pujols in the seventh inning after Bailey had thrown 114 pitches and just walked Skip Schumacher on five pitches. Schumacher then steals second Base, opening up first for an intentional walk of Pujols, right? Wrong. Dusty lets Bailey keep pitching, and the result was an entirely predictable RBI double. Aroldis Chapman owners, take heed.

Notables:
- Roy Halladay threw his second shutout of the season, and third complete game, to run his record to 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. For the record, it's been 20 years since Bob Welch went 27-6 and became the last guy to win 25 or more (let's leave Denny McLain out of the discussion for now). Is it possible Halladay was even a bit underated coming into the season, and that the impact of his move out of the AL East (and away from regular run-ins with the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays) wasn't given enough weight?
-Ian Kinsler went 2-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored, and doesn't seem rusty at all
-Matt Cain finally got into the win column, throwing eight shutout innings and striking out eight, against three walks and a single hit allowed.
-Jason Heyward connects on his seventh home run. Before the season I made a prop bet with a friend: Heyward vs Kyle Blanks, most home runs. I have Blanks. So far, oops.
-Rajai Davis, 2-for-5 with an RBI and his 11th steal of the season. Even if he isn't quite a full-time starter, it looks like he's still going to get you your SBs.
-Gio Gonzalez had arguably his best start of the year so far, striking out eight in 6.2 innings and walking only two while giving up three hits and two runs. With Brett Anderson on the shelf, the A's could use some consistency out of Gonzalez.
-Kyle Lohse struck out eight and walked none over seven shutout innings in a no-decision. No, he's not that dominant, but he isn't 6.55 ERA bad (his mark coming into the game) either, nor is he as bad as his injury-infuenced 2009 numbers. Dave Duncan plus veteran pitcher equals solid results, in most cases, as Lohse himself proved in 2008. There aren't many real buy-low opportunities in leagues with reasonably sharp fellow owners, but this might be one of them.
-Andruw Jones, two more home runs (giving him eight on the season) and a steal (giving him four). The steals might be more surprising -- the last time Jones broke double-digits in SBs was 2001.
-Johnny Damon hits his first home run as a Tiger. Oh, and it's a walk-off shot. The former Yankee and Red Sox may be out of the big market limelight, but he's still a drama queen.

Save Chances:
- Frank Francisco, converted. The Rangers decided they didn't want to use Neftali Feliz on consecutive days and instead turned to Francisco to preserve a three-run lead. Two walks on nine pitches later, pitching coach Mike Maddux was holding court on the mound and Feliz was warming up anyway. Whatever Maddux said worked though, and Francisco then got three straight outs. This looks like a two-man closer committee in the making, but Feliz is still option 1A.
-Andrew Bailey, converted. Two strikeouts in 1.1 innings. His ERA is still 0.00.
-Bobby Jenks, converted. One hit and one K in one inning.
-Carlos Marmol, converted. He struck out the side in a shutout inning, but only after loading the bases with a hit and two walks. In other words, a typical Marmol outing.

Other Closer Outings:
-Ryan Franklin struck out two in 1.1 innings to pick up his first win of the season. Hopefully those of you waiting for him to implode after his out-of-nowhere 2009 weren't holding your breath over it -- Franklin's sporting a solid 3.18 ERA and has yet to walk a batter or give up a home run in 11.1 innings.

Tough Days:
-Ian Stewart went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, and got tossed after debating the validity of the second one. That's still better than Miguel Olivo.
-In a 10-0 rout of the Mets, Placido Polanco went 0-for-5. He's having his usual decent season and has scored 15 runs in 23 games hitting second in the Phillies lineup, but few things sting more as a fantasy owner than seeing a guy come up completely empty on a day when his teammates erupt for double-digit runs.
-Chipper Jones, 0-for-4, now hitting .215 on the year. He's another 'Will Rake When Healthy' guy, but the times when he's completely healthy are getting fewer and shorter.
-Sammy Gervacio, zero outs, three earned thanks to two walks and Heyward's homer. His ERA is now 13.50. This is not someone likely to be closing games any time soon.
-Drew Stubbs struck out twice more, giving him 26 K's in 74 at-bats to go along with his .176 batting average. Chris Heisey just got called up to replace Chris Dickerson on the roster, and Stubbs' glove in center field might be the only thing keeping him in the lineup on a regular basis.
-Javier Vazquez remains allergic to pinstripes, coughing up five runs on seven hits (including two home run by long-time nemesis Andruw Jones) and four walks in three innings to send his ERA up to 9.78.

Late Injuries:
-Curtis Granderson left Saturday's game with a groin injury. The Yankees were worried enough about it to send him for an MRI immediately, and a DL stint seems likely.

Tim Kurkjian Would Not Approve:
-With the Jays putting together a two-out rally in the seventh inning, Fred Lewis lashed a ball into the gap in right-center to score Lyle Overbay and bring Toronto to within one run. Thanks to the ridiculously bright field-level scoreboards along the outfield walls at the Rogers Centre though, Lewis couldn't pick up the ball as he approached second base and tried to stretch the hit into a triple, getting gunned down at third instead. While the box score will show another mental mistake by a young player, the E in this case should go to whoever decided that having electronic scoreboards in the field of play was a good idea. What's next, a TV screen set into home plate running ads?