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Picks, 5|FRONTS|4|FRONTS|10

Some days there are a ton of entertaining, interesting baseball games. Last night was not one of those nights, and in fact, the early games held my attention so poorly that I ended up watching "The Usual Suspects" for the first time. I never was a movie guy, and there's a lot of things I haven't seen that most people have. This is a rare case where I really feel like I missed something all these years. What a great, great film. I need to watch it again now for the things I must have missed first time through.

Anyway...

Philadelphia +102. Tied through six innings, the Phillies got Jaime Garcia out of the game only to watch the pinch-hitter for him go deep, kicking off a five-run inning.

Baltimore +260. The Orioles played tough for almost four whole innings.

Kansas City/Chicago (AL) under 9. So won't the real Jake Peavy please stand up, please stand up?

There was some chatter in the comments yesterday about run lines. I'm not comfortable with them and may go the whole year without touching them, and then only perhaps when getting the 1.5. The balance of strategies in baseball favors the team that's trailing, they have small edges, and this is one factor that makes baseball so much different from clocked games. With this in mind, needing to win by two is a significant handicap., because the team trailing by multiple runs has the advantage in closing that gap. I wouldn't say it's a bad play--with the right odds, anything can be a good play--but it isn't one I'll use much, if at all.

Tonight's very strange card:

Atlanta -107, 1.5 units. Fading the miracle that is Livan Hernandez with a team that's starting to become a bit underrated.

Philadelphia -106, one unit. The oddsmakers have really bought into this Cardinals team. The Phillies are the better team, they're at home and, reputations aside, they may even have the better starter. It's closer than this line indicates, I know that.

Houston -115, one unit. I'm riding Roy Oswalt even with his teammates. The Astros aren't quite this bad (nine homers?) and may present value as we proceed through the season. If the game is close, the Diamondbacks bullpen is on our side.

Minnesota-132, two units. Dontrelle Willis is pitching.

Oakland -101, one unit. Scott Fademan is pitching. This is the play I'm least confident in, mostly because I have no real read on Vin Mazzaro. Still., Feldman is someone I've targeted as overvalued, and this line reflects that.

That's four favorites and one underdog at minus money. I guarantee you that won't happen more than three times all year.