Have you ever played poker, had the top pair/top kicker on the flop only see a guy in front of you go all-in? When he turns up his cards you see he's on a flush draw. The turn comes and it helps no one. You're in a great position to take the pot as long as a club doesn't come on the river. Of course, the black card on the river isn't a spade and you've lost. That's basically how I felt with my picks last weekend. Let's look at how close I was on some.
Army/Navy over 57.5, loss. With nine minutes left in the third quarter, the two teams had combined to score 42 points which put them on pace for close to 70 points. As luck and some inspired defense would have it, the two teams managed only six points the rest of the way. I even got a text from a friend at that nine-minute mark telling me "nice call." I reminded myself why I don't typically like the over/under but I'm sure I'll take another soon enough.
Jon Jones, loss. In all fairness, he was a pretty heavy favorite. Lyoto did appear to hit him hard and daze him but other than that it was all Jones. It was an odd UFC card in that the majority of favorites won, something that usually doesn't happen. Case in point, if you had taken Frankie Edgar both times he beat B.J. Penn, you would have made a lot of money.
Ravens – 16.5, loss. Lost on the last play of the game, seriously? No club, no club…argh.
Bengals – 3, loss. Again, they had a nine-point lead halfway through the fourth quarter.
Titans + 3.5, loss. After three quarters the Titans were up 10-9 and could have won on the last play of the game.
Giants 3:1 to win the division, pending. This one is still in play but looking good, you could actually hedge (something I usually don't recommend) and get the Cowboys to win the division now for +120.
Onto this week's action:
Utah St./Ohio, over 60. Ohio's last three games haven't gone over 60 while Utah St.'s last two haven't gone over 60. So why the high number? Both teams defensively are not that good against the pass and much better against the run. Look for them to air it out which should lead to a high scoring affair.
Tampa Bay +270. Here is how I see this game going. Either Dallas is going to blow them out or Tampa is going to win outright, I don't think the points matter. Given that Jason Garrett can call a timeout at any point to screw up his team (the Arizona game will haunt Cowboy fans come Jan. 2), I'll go with the latter there at almost 3:1.
Chicago – 3.5. How successful have the Bears been with Caleb Hanie under center? Exactly. Therefore, give me the Bears laying the points.
Oakland -1. How successful have the Raiders been the last two games (losing by 20 and 30)? Exactly. Give me the silver and black.
New England – 6.5. I've kind of been on board with Tebow-mania, given all the detractors the kid has. I mean, come on, has he asked out every daughter of every NFL analyst around the country? That being said, I'd go with the Patriots this week. I just don't see any more Divine Intervention taking place. You can't give the Patriots 3.5 quarters and expect to win. And it will be laughable when all of Tebow's critics claim victory Monday. Laughable.
SD, 10:1 to win the AFC West. Dumb, dumb, dumb. This was a wager that was likely 30:1 or higher before the Jacksonville game and I picked SD over them. Like the Giants, the better wager would have been to scrap the points that game and take them to win the AFC West two weeks ago. Baltimore is an up and down team and their journey out west last time to Seattle didn't work out. Week 17 San Diego at Oakland could have a lot of meaning and speaking of which, every team should have a divisional game on Week 17. Even if a team is out of it, I'd guess they still go 100 percent against their rival.
Again, all of this is for fun and sport. Enjoy the weekend my friends and good luck in your fantasy football playoffs.