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Does Emilio Bonifacio belong in the Top 200?

When we had RotoWire's Bernie Pleskoff on Wednesday's radio show, we discussed the relative merits of Emilio Bonifacio.

I had given him an advance copy of the RotoWire 200, which will appear in the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide 2012 (coming to a newsstand near you in about 2.5 weeks), to get his feedback. (The online version will get posted Sunday night) He suggested that Bonifacio was my most notable omission.

The case in favor of Bonifacio is pretty simple. He stole 40 bases last year, he qualifies at SS, 3B and OF, and he'll likely bat near the top of the order for an improved Marlins team while playing center field. Theoretically, at least, he'll be in the starting lineup from Opening Day on and get more chances to pad that stolen base total, scoring a ton of runs in the process.

And yet ... I'm somewhat dubious about Bonifacio being able to repeat. I don't discount his speed skill, but I wonder whether he can hit enough to stay in the lineup. He has zero power skills and his BABIP last season was .376, implying that his batting average will decline in 2012. If that happens, chances are he'll revert back to being a utility player. That has value in NL-only leagues and even the deeper (15+ team) mixed leagues, but it would take him out of the 200 for 12-team mixed leagues.

Still, the thought that Bonifacio would get those bags and maybe a whole lot more under steal-happy manager Ozzie Guillen persuaded me enough to slot him at #192, in place of Yoenis Cespedes.

Then, my friend and colleague Todd Zola, from MastersBall.com,e-mailed me after hearing the segment with Bernie, imploring me not to include Bonifacio:

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE do not put Bonifacio anywhere near your top-200.  Or 400.  Or even 500.
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He was 16 for 25 on bunts (.625, league average is .464, he was ..200the previous season).
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Career high LD|PERCENT| in 2011.
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Probably utility if Marlins sign Cespedes, and even if they don't.
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I referred an NFBC player to you earlier in the week -- not saying Iwon't refer any more, but, well...
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> PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE

Todd's a pretty smart guy.When he and I have differed on a projection in the past, he's been right a good portion of the time, maybe more so than I.

And sure enough, yesterday the news came that the Marlins are very interested in Cespedes.

The money quote came from team President David Samson:

"Aggressive right to the point of stupidity, but not quite there," said Samson, characterizing the club's planned pursuit. "We think he's a perfect fit for us, but it has to be sane. [We've] expressing interest, going to visit, making it very clear to his representatives and to him and his family that we think he should not be anywhere other than Miami. As a Cuban and someone in the DR, it makes perfect sense. We have a perfect position for him to play (emphasis mine). It would be great."

That hardly sounds like Bonifacio has job security, right? And we're forgetting in all of this that Chris Coghlan may be out of favor now, but he's not out of the organization, and if he plays, chances are that center field would be his landing point.

Depth-wise, Bonifacio can play a lot of places - 2B, SS, 3B, and all three OF positions. Hanley Ramirez is coming off of his shoulder injury, and Logan Morrison is coming off of knee surgery. Omar Infante isn't the greatest stick in the world at second base, and we all know about Jose Reyes' durability issues. So the path for playing time is still there even if the Marlins ultimately sign Cespedes, though it would take a few events for things to work in Bonifacio's favor.

I've decided, at least for the sake of the magazine, to keep Bonifacio in there unless and until the Marlins sign Cespedes - it's not a slam dunk that they get him, and the timetable for a potential signing is still undetermined. But I'm wary of the decision - it's easy to see how it could blow up.

What say you? Would he make your top 200?