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Amateur Mock(ery) Draft: What's the Difference?

What's the difference between mock drafting with "experts" and amateurs in 10-team leagues?  Not much.  In fact, if you analyze this amateur
mockery with MDC's "expert ADP" (which none of the players had access to during the draft), there are very few outliers.  Ryan Braun is an outlier
on the expert ADP side (21.6 vs. 5 in the amateur mock draft) due to the fact that for a large portion of the mock draft season, he was supposed to be
suspended for the first 50 games via the MLB drug policy. 

Amateur Mock Draft Results

Amateur Mock Draft MDC Projections

The one and only glaring difference between the experts and the amateurs is when the first starting pitcher run takes place.  According to the
expert ADP, the first four pitchers (Verlander, Halladay, Kershaw, and Lee) get drafted in the late second round through early in the fourth
round(17.8, 20.9, 23.1, and 32.8 respectively) whereas the amateurs moved them up a few slots (15, 16, 17, and 19).  When to take starting
pitchers continues to be the most volatile debate among experts and amateurs.  Some say that the elite pitchers like Justin Verlander perform at
the level of two mid-level starting pitchers while others say that there is not enough consistency in an individual's performance indicating that a guy
like Verlander can keep up the torrid pace he set during his MVP campaign last season.  Regardless, experts still rank starting pitchers inside of
the top-20 despite constantly urging their followers not to draft pitching early.  Something's gotta give in every draft, and this one was no
different.

 


Draft Stock UP: Player (Pick in Amateur Draft, Expert ADP)

¨     Tim Lincecum (26, 36.5): The pitcher run began early in this draft and Team Lee wanted to firmly establish his SP
early by grabbing two elite starters in Roy Halladay and Lincecum.  The strategy is bold and according to the MDC projections, he was still able
to finish in the top half of three of the five hitting categories.

¨     David Price (39, 57.8): The Great was another player that wanted to dominate the SP categories early and fill in
his hitting depth later figuring that other players will be drafting pitching later.  According to the projections, his strategy was very
successful considering that he is projected to finish second with 63 Roto Points.

¨     Michael Bourn (40, 54.3): One of the more volatile players in mock drafts this season due to the lack of
unanimous belief that Bourn is a dominant three-category player (R, SB, AVG).  Wolverine Warriors' strategy going into the draft was to dominate
all five hitting categories and after drafting Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder in rounds one and two respectively, he decided to grab two speed guys
in rounds three and four in Reyes and Bourn.  The projections have him finishing in the top half of all hitting categories due in part to his
well-rounded first four rounds.

¨     Shin-Soo Choo (58, 69.2): This pick either could be a huge value given his top-30 talent and his five-category
contribution potential, but Choo struggled mightily last season dealing with a DUI.  Hopefully for his fantasy owners worldwide, Choo has his head
screwed on straight and provides double-digit profit in auctions and multiple round profits in snake drafts.

¨     Dee Gordon (114, 152.5): One of the highest risers in this draft, team All Day needed speed and a SS and
found it in Gordon.  Erick Aybar (expert ADP of 119.2) was also available, but youth prevailed here.  This is a prime example of targeting a
guy and making sure you get him, even if it means taking him a couple rounds earlier than you'd like just to make sure.  Gordon could provide
top-100 numbers, but he also could finish the year in AAA.  Only time will tell.

¨     Emilio Bonifacio (133, 187.2): One of the only picks I have a tough time comprehending.  Yellow Mamba
learned how shallow the corner infield spots are this year by waiting until the 13th round to take his first corner infielder (Nick
Swisher).  This resulted in him having to reach on Bonifacio because he liked his position flexibility and ability to provide AVG and SB. 


Stock DOWN

¨     All Catchers, but Carlos Santana specifically (45, 33.8): Not only did Santana drop more than ten spots from the
expert ADP, he was not even the first catcher taken.  That honor belonged to Mike Napoli at pick 44.  Santana is a very highly thought of
catcher, but this league did not see that.  Especially given the fact that this was a two-catcher draft, one would have thought that someone would
have reached early for the top-rated catcher.  This league, however, waited on catchers in lieu of waiting for the latter ten rounds to fill at
least one, if not both, catcher positions.  Most common reason given:very few, if any, start 150 games so why spend an early pick on a
position that does not provide full season numbers?

¨     Cleveland Indians Players Not Named Shin-Soo Choo, but Jason Kipnis specifically (209, 150.9): Ubaldo Jiminez,
Chris Perez, Justin Masterson, and Asdrubal Cabrera could have also made this list, but Kipnis fell like a box of rocks in this draft.  Most
common reason given: I don't believe in the Indians this year.

¨     Paul Goldschmidt (187, 135.4): Some of the guys steered away from Goldschmidt because they simply did not know
who he was but ARod's Mariners was very upset that he filled all of his CI/UTIL slots so early (round 7) if he had known that Goldschmidt would have
fallen this far.  Goldschmidt showed the ability to handle the bat well in Arizona last year and team All Day hopes that he continues that this
season.

¨     Mike Moustakas (199, 179.7): Moustakas showed flashes of his highly touted skills in Kansas City last year, but
towards the end of the year it looked like pitchers figured him out.  Hopefully he makes an adjustment this year and The Great look really smart
for stealing him in the 20th round.

¨     Mike Trout (–, 179.9): Perhaps a casualty of the fact that this was mock draft did not allot for bench spots,
but no one wanted to take the risk that Trout would not earn an everyday job in the crowded Los Angels Angels of Anaheim's outfield that includes
expected starters Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Peter Bourjos