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The Recent Trend Of Top QB Good Health

Written by 
Peter Schoenke
Published on August 13, 2013

I'm a card carrying member of the "wait on the quarterback" club, but even I have noticed the change that's taken place at the top of the quarterback crop in recent years. It used to be that taking a QB early in a fantasy football draft was a bad idea because quarterbacks got hurt so often. But with recent rule changes - or maybe a recent string of good luck - the top quarterbacks are no longer getting hurt at high rates.

From 1998 to 2007, a quarterback that was picked in the top 50 overall in average draft position (ADP) had a 37 percent chance of ending up a bust. There were 72 quarterbacks in that period taken in the top 50 of ADP. Of those, 27 didn't finish in the top 12 at QB in fantasy points by the end of the season (which I define as a bust since you could have perhaps found a better QB on the waiver wire). Of those 27, 23 were due in some part to an injury and the other four lost their job due to poor performance.

Historically quarterbacks are busts at very high rates - the highest of any of the main fantasy positions (QB, RB, TE, WR):

POSADPTotal VBDAvg. VBDPlayersBustBust Percentage
QbTop 5QQ|>-62.9QQ|>-12.58QQ|>5QQ|>2QQ|>.40
QBTop 15QQ|>1,531QQ|>46.39QQ|>33QQ|>7QQ|>.21
QBTop 25QQ|>2,373QQ|>44.78QQ|>53QQ|>12QQ|>.23
QBTop 50QQ|>1,649QQ|>15.85QQ|>104QQ|>35QQ|>.34
QBTop 75QQ|>1,531QQ|>9.34QQ|>164QQ|>61QQ|>.37
WRTop 5QQ|>0QQ|>0.00QQ|>0QQ|>0QQ|>.00
WRTop 15QQ|>1,930QQ|>68.92QQ|>28QQ|>2QQ|>.07
WRTop 25QQ|>4,361QQ|>55.20QQ|>79QQ|>10QQ|>.13
WRTop 50QQ|>7,158QQ|>31.26QQ|>229QQ|>62QQ|>.27
WRTop 75QQ|>8,073QQ|>21.36QQ|>378QQ|>134QQ|>.35
RBTop 5QQ|>4,884QQ|>113.57QQ|>43QQ|>4QQ|>.09
RBTop 15QQ|>11,687QQ|>90.59QQ|>129QQ|>19QQ|>.15
RBTop 25QQ|>15,656QQ|>81.54QQ|>192QQ|>32QQ|>.17
RBTop 50QQ|>19,910QQ|>66.59QQ|>299QQ|>62QQ|>.21
RBTop 75QQ|>21,433QQ|>53.32QQ|>402QQ|>107QQ|>.27
TETop 15QQ|>0QQ|>0.00QQ|>0QQ|>0QQ|>.00
TETop 50QQ|>839QQ|>41.95QQ|>20QQ|>4QQ|>.20
TETop 75QQ|>1,198QQ|>19.97QQ|>60QQ|>19QQ|>.32
KTop 125QQ|>-274QQ|>-4.81QQ|>57QQ|>35QQ|>.61

But look what's happened since 2008. Quarterbacks that are the consensus best in the league - at least according to ADP - are staying healthy and productive. Since 2008, just  19 percent  of quarterbacks (6 of 31) taken in the top 50 of ADP have turned into busts. And Just four were busts due to injury (which may be harder to forecast).

Is this just a fluke of a smaller sample size? Is it just that Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have been very healthy (other than the two missed seasons from Brady and Manning). Have the recent rule changes making it harder to hit a QB had a big impact?

Here's the impressive list:

SeasonPlayerADPFinal Position Rank
2008TomBradyQBQQ|>5.94QQ|>60knee injury
2008PeytonManningQBQQ|>11.98QQ|>6
2008TonyRomoQBQQ|>15.3QQ|>9
2008DrewBreesQBQQ|>21.25QQ|>1
2008CarsonPalmerQBQQ|>33.88QQ|>41elbow injury
2008BenRoethlisbergerQBQQ|>37.2QQ|>18poor performance
2009DrewBreesQBQQ|>11.2QQ|>7
2009TomBradyQBQQ|>13.66QQ|>14
2009PeytonManningQBQQ|>19.03QQ|>4
2009AaronRodgersQBQQ|>26.57QQ|>1
2009PhilipRiversQBQQ|>31.88QQ|>7
2009KurtWarnerQBQQ|>40.96QQ|>13concussion
2009TonyRomoQBQQ|>42.16QQ|>6
2010AaronRodgersQBQQ|>9.55QQ|>2
2010DrewBreesQBQQ|>11.84QQ|>6
2010PeytonManningQBQQ|>21.74QQ|>4
2010TomBradyQBQQ|>34.44QQ|>9
2010TonyRomoQBQQ|>40.83QQ|>30broken collarbone
2010PhilipRiversQBQQ|>41.48QQ|>5
2010MattSchaubQBQQ|>45.38QQ|>10
2011MichaelVickQBQQ|>8.19QQ|>11
2011AaronRodgersQBQQ|>10.36QQ|>1
2011DrewBreesQBQQ|>22.41QQ|>2
2011TomBradyQBQQ|>30.94QQ|>3
2011PhilipRiversQBQQ|>35.3QQ|>9
2012AaronRodgersQBQQ|>4QQ|>2
2012TomBradyQBQQ|>8QQ|>3
2012DrewBreesQBQQ|>12QQ|>1
2012MatthewStaffordQBQQ|>14QQ|>11
2012CamNewtonQBQQ|>16QQ|>4

Does this change your thinking about quarterback?  I still think the depth at the position means you should wait on a quarterback. And 2013 may feature the deepest quarterback group ever, so I'm not afraid to wait on a QB until crazy late (I took Jay Cutler as my first QB in the 11th round in a 16-team league last month).

However, this data may indicate that if you are in a two-QB league - or a league with a QB in the flex - it may not be a bad idea to invest in two top-tier QBs. After all, the recent trend shows they hold value.