What happens when you go outside of your planned strategy one player into an auction? That's what happened with me in the RotoWire Steak League Auction on Tuesday.
This is the same auction that Chris Liss wrote about yesterday, so I'll spare you the details on the league - at it's essence the league is 14 teams, standard scoring, three wide receivers with a flex, with three IDP's instead of a team defense. The buy-in is cheap - the real stakes are the steaks. Besides wanting to avoid the costs of buying steaks et al, you really want to avoid the indignity of paying for Liss, and listening to chirp about how infrequently he has had to buy, etc.... I've done well recently in this league, and generally speaking in my auction leagues. I think I've stumbled upon a formula that works, at least in leagues that have this sort of depth.
My planning isn't really novel, or even a format that I've created - it's something I first saw Ron Shandler do in baseball. And that's to lay out rough price points for each auction slot, and make sure that I have enough balance that I'm not filling out my active roster with part-time players, or $1 scrubs if you buy into the Stars-and-Scrubs parlance. But as I prepped for this auction, here's what I laid out beforehand:
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QB - $8-10: I'm a card-carrying member on the "Wait-on-the-Quarterbacks" club. Unless there's a big discount, rarely will I pay sticker price on a top QB, and I don't want to pay up for the mid-tier quarterbacks. In a pinch, I was willing to spend as little as $5 and just get two cheap guys, in the Blake Bortles/Andy Dalton range. This helps me save up to buy the RBs and WRs that I wanted.
RB (2) - $80: I wanted to spend $55 or less on one of the consensus top-7 backs (Gurley, Bell, Johnson, Elliott, Barkley, Hunt, Kamara), and the remainder of that budget on the next best available back, starting roughly around the Joe Mixon level, but knowing that wouldn't be enough to get him specifically.
WR (3) - $70: Wide receivers tend to get pricy in this league, especially at the highest level. Yet this has been a big running back year in most of my drafts. I knew I wouldn't get one of the big three (Brown, Hopkins, Beckham) with this allocation, but I wanted to get one WR each from the next three tiers.
Flex (1) - $10: This is the first year we've added a flex for this league. I wanted to get someone that was going to get a reasonable chance of producing each week, rather than squeezing in a $2 lottery ticket. I tend to think my fellow owners could undervalue their flex spots.
TE (1) - $10: I'd like to get Delanie Walker or Greg Olsen around this price, but if that's not realistic, I'd immediately drop down to the $1-2 tier. I don't want to overspend on middling players here.
K (1) - $1: While there's value in getting one of the top-three kickers above the pack, too many other people in this league believe in that too, meaning it won't just take $2 to get one of them. I'll take whatever I can get for the minimum.
IDP's (3) - $10: I'd rather allocate auction dollars to one of the top IDP's at each position, especially at DB and DL.
Bench (5) - $9: Take my shots at RBs and WRs here, with maybe one spot towards a backup QB if I go really cheap, or a backup TE if I go cheap there instead.
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So this is what I ended up with instead. What happened?
| Schoenke | McCaigue | Siegrist | Doria | Liss | ||||||
| QB | Andrew Luck, Ind QB | $11 | Kirk Cousins, Min QB | $10 | Matthew Stafford, Det QB | $3 | Aaron Rodgers, GB QB | $23 | Carson Wentz, Phi QB | $13 |
| RB | Kareem Hunt, KC RB | $55 | Jordan Howard, Chi RB | $46 | Kerryon Johnson, Det RB | $19 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB | $63 | Todd Gurley II, LAR RB | $62 |
| RB | Dion Lewis, Ten RB | $17 | Tarik Cohen, Chi RB | $10 | Mark Ingram II, NO RB | $20 | Lamar Miller, Hou RB | $16 | Leonard Fournette, Jax RB | $56 |
| WR | A.J. Green, Cin WR | $42 | Michael Thomas, NO WR | $48 | Odell Beckham Jr., NYG WR | $47 | Brandin Cooks, LAR WR | $18 | Doug Baldwin, Sea WR | $28 |
| WR | Marvin Jones Jr., Det WR | $18 | Golden Tate, Det WR | $16 | Davante Adams, GB WR | $45 | Chris Hogan, NE WR | $22 | Marqise Lee, Jax WR | $4 |
| WR | Kenny Stills, Mia WR | $6 | Alshon Jeffery*, Phi WR | $18 | Allen Hurns, Dal WR | $10 | Will Fuller V, Hou WR | $14 | Albert Wilson, Mia WR | $1 |
| TE | Kyle Rudolph, Min TE | $11 | Rob Gronkowski, NE TE | $31 | Travis Kelce, KC TE | $32 | David Njoku, Cle TE | $6 | Trey Burton, Chi TE | $10 |
| FLEX | Rashaad Penny, Sea RB | $18 | Marcus Williams, NO S | $1 | Jamaal Williams, GB RB | $10 | Isaiah Crowell, NYJ RB | $15 | Adrian Peterson, Wsh RB | $4 |
| K | Jake Elliott, Phi K | $1 | Matt Bryant, Atl K | $1 | Daniel Carlson, Min K | $1 | Stephen Gostkowski, NE K | $2 | Josh Lambo, Jax K | $1 |
| DL | Myles Garrett, Cle DE | $3 | Danielle Hunter, Min DE | $1 | Aaron Donald, LAR DT | $1 | Chandler Jones, Ari DE | $2 | Joey Bosa, LAC DE | $8 |
| LB | Eric Kendricks, Min LB | $1 | Lavonte David, TB LB | $1 | Roquan Smith, Chi LB | $1 | Kwon Alexander, TB LB | $3 | Luke Kuechly, Car LB | $5 |
| DB | Malik Hooker, Ind S | $1 | Jared Goff, LAR QB | $2 | Jamal Adams, NYJ S | $1 | Jordan Poyer, Buf S | $2 | Landon Collins, NYG S | $2 |
| B | Dak Prescott, Dal QB | $5 | Cooper Kupp, LAR WR | $9 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi QB | $2 | Rex Burkhead, NE RB | $6 | Charles Clay, Buf TE | $2 |
| B | Chris Godwin, TB WR | $4 | C.J. Anderson, Car RB | $3 | Giovani Bernard, Cin RB | $2 | Benjamin Watson, NO TE | $2 | Martavis Bryant, Oak WR | $1 |
| B | D'Onta Foreman*, Hou RB | $1 | Devontae Booker, Den RB | $1 | Jonathan Williams, NO RB | $1 | Case Keenum, Den QB | $1 | Kenneth Dixon, Bal RB | $1 |
| B | Matt Breida, SF RB | $5 | Bilal Powell, NYJ RB | $1 | Ryan Grant, Ind WR | $1 | DeVante Parker, Mia WR | $2 | Terrelle Pryor, NYJ WR | $1 |
| B | Samaje Perine, Wsh RB | $1 | Cameron Meredith, NO WR | $1 | Tyrell Williams, LAC WR | $1 | DeSean Jackson, TB WR | $1 | Corey Coleman, Buf WR | $1 |
| Erickson | Schuler | Ilk | Thornbury | Ross | ||||||
| QB | Deshaun Watson, Hou QB | $21 | Russell Wilson, Sea QB | $19 | Jimmy Garoppolo, SF QB | $8 | Philip Rivers, LAC QB | $10 | Drew Brees, NO QB | $9 |
| RB | Alvin Kamara, NO RB | $49 | Christian McCaffrey, Car RB | $40 | Royce Freeman, Den RB | $29 | David Johnson, Ari RB | $60 | Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB | $60 |
| RB | Devonta Freeman, Atl RB | $40 | Joe Mixon, Cin RB | $39 | LeSean McCoy, Buf RB | $31 | Chris Carson, Sea RB | $15 | Ronald Jones, TB RB | $16 |
| WR | Adam Thielen, Min WR | $25 | Keenan Allen, LAC WR | $36 | Josh Gordon*, Cle WR | $17 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR | $53 | Mike Evans, TB WR | $38 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs, Min WR | $29 | Tyreek Hill, KC WR | $31 | Corey Davis, Ten WR | $11 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit WR | $28 | Amari Cooper, Oak WR | $28 |
| WR | Robby Anderson, NYJ WR | $12 | Kelvin Benjamin, Buf WR | $8 | Nelson Agholor, Phi WR | $11 | Anthony Miller, Chi WR | $6 | Pierre Garcon, SF WR | $9 |
| TE | O.J. Howard, TB TE | $1 | Jack Doyle, Ind TE | $4 | Evan Engram, NYG TE | $17 | George Kittle, SF TE | $2 | Jordan Reed, Wsh TE | $4 |
| FLEX | Julian Edelman, NE WR | $5 | John Ross, Cin WR | $1 | Derrick Henry, Ten RB | $19 | Kenny Golladay, Det WR | $4 | Jamison Crowder, Wsh WR | $7 |
| K | Chris Boswell, Pit K | $1 | Greg Zuerlein, LAR K | $2 | Matt Prater, Det K | $1 | Sebastian Janikowski, Sea K | $5 | Wil Lutz, NO K | $1 |
| DL | Cameron Jordan, NO DE | $1 | J.J. Watt, Hou DE | $4 | Brandon Graham, Phi DE | $1 | Cameron Heyward, Pit DT | $1 | Melvin Ingram, LAC LB | $1 |
| LB | Christian Kirksey, Cle LB | $4 | Telvin Smith, Jax LB | $3 | Benardrick McKinney, Hou LB | $1 | Blake Martinez, GB LB | $2 | Sean Lee, Dal LB | $3 |
| DB | Keanu Neal, Atl S | $5 | Harrison Smith, Min S | $4 | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, GB S | $1 | Karl Joseph, Oak S | $1 | Reshad Jones, Mia S | $4 |
| B | Dede Westbrook, Jax WR | $2 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB | $3 | Michael Crabtree, Bal WR | $10 | Calvin Ridley, Atl WR | $4 | Peyton Barber, TB RB | $5 |
| B | Jeremy Hill, NE RB | $2 | Austin Hooper, Atl TE | $3 | Devin Funchess, Car WR | $9 | Taywan Taylor, Ten WR | $2 | Alex Smith, Wsh QB | $3 |
| B | Mike Gesicki, Mia TE | $1 | Theo Riddick, Det RB | $1 | Randall Cobb, GB WR | $9 | Michael Gallup, Dal WR | $3 | Dez Bryant, FA WR | $5 |
| B | Corey Clement, Phi RB | $1 | Marcus Murphy, Buf RB | $1 | Tevin Coleman, Atl RB | $11 | Christian Kirk, Ari WR | $2 | Austin Ekeler, LAC RB | $2 |
| B | Chase Edmonds, Ari RB | $1 | Mohamed Sanu, Atl WR | $1 | Aaron Jones, GB RB | $14 | LeGarrette Blount, Det RB | $2 | Jadeveon Clowney, Hou DE | $1 |
| Lyles | Jenstad | Bartel | Crites | |||||||
| QB | Cam Newton, Car QB | $18 | Marcus Mariota, Ten QB | $3 | Tom Brady, NE QB | $16 | Patrick Mahomes, KC QB | $8 | ||
| RB | Kenyan Drake, Mia RB | $35 | Dalvin Cook, Min RB | $46 | Melvin Gordon, LAC RB | $49 | Saquon Barkley, NYG RB | $54 | ||
| RB | Duke Johnson Jr., Cle RB | $5 | Alex Collins, Bal RB | $19 | Jay Ajayi, Phi RB | $20 | Jerick McKinnon, SF RB | $32 | ||
| WR | Antonio Brown, Pit WR | $55 | Julio Jones, Atl WR | $47 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR | $29 | Demaryius Thomas, Den WR | $24 | ||
| WR | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR | $15 | Marquise Goodwin, SF WR | $18 | Allen Robinson, Chi WR | $22 | Jarvis Landry, Cle WR | $18 | ||
| WR | Emmanuel Sanders, Den WR | $10 | Robert Woods, LAR WR | $14 | Sammy Watkins, KC WR | $14 | DJ Moore, Car WR | $6 | ||
| TE | Greg Olsen, Car TE | $14 | Delanie Walker, Ten TE | $12 | Jimmy Graham, GB TE | $12 | Zach Ertz, Phi TE | $24 | ||
| FLEX | Jordy Nelson, Oak WR | $5 | Carlos Hyde, Cle RB | $10 | Marlon Mack, Ind RB | $11 | Marshawn Lynch, Oak RB | $17 | ||
| K | Harrison Butker, KC K | $3 | Robbie Gould, SF K | $1 | Mason Crosby, GB K | $1 | Justin Tucker, Bal K | $4 | ||
| DL | Khalil Mack*, Oak DE | $8 | DeMarcus Lawrence, Dal DE | $2 | Calais Campbell, Jax DE | $3 | Trey Flowers, NE DE | $1 | ||
| LB | Bobby Wagner, Sea LB | $7 | Zach Brown, Wsh LB | $4 | C.J. Mosley, Bal LB | $4 | Deion Jones, Atl LB | $1 | ||
| DB | Josh Norman, Wsh CB | $1 | Kevin Byard, Ten S | $2 | Budda Baker, Ari S | $2 | Justin Simmons, Den S | $1 | ||
| B | Ty Montgomery, GB RB | Sterling Shepard, NYG WR | $5 | Chris Thompson, Wsh RB | $3 | Rob Kelley, Wsh RB | $1 | |||
| B | Josh Doctson, Wsh WR | $3 | Sony Michel, NE RB | $9 | Jordan Wilkins, Ind RB | $5 | James White, NE RB | $2 | ||
| B | Paul Richardson, Wsh WR | $5 | Matt Ryan, Atl QB | $1 | Derek Carr, Oak QB | $1 | Nyheim Hines, Ind RB | $2 | ||
| B | Jared Cook, Oak TE | $1 | John Brown, Bal WR | $2 | Mike Williams, LAC WR | $2 | Tyler Lockett, Sea WR | $4 | ||
| B | Latavius Murray, Min RB | $3 | Nick Chubb, Cle RB | $5 | Rishard Matthews*, Ten WR | $4 | James Washington, Pit WR | $1 |
Deshaun Watson was the very first player out of the chute, nominated by Tim McCaigue. As the bidding started to slow in the high teens, I jumped in. Last year the top quarterbacks went for over $30, and while the draft environment continues to drag down the cost of quarterback acquisition, I still thought that this was a little low, and was more than a little surprised when he stopped at $21. My gut feel that this was a standard case of a top player going for too little as the first player nominated. Later I discovered that was an incorrect interpretation - when Aaron Rodgers went for only $23 as the most expensive quarterback, I realized that I misjudged the quarterback market. And later Scott Jenstad illustrated that the $5 QB plan was more than viable, when he landed Matt Ryan and Marcus Mariota for a combined $4.
So after just one player, I had to adjust my plan on the fly. But I didn't get much time to do that, as the third player out was Alvin Kamara, who stopped at my $49 bid, $6 under my target. Kamara was ranked the lowest of my "top-7", but I've often fallen into a position where I get picky about pinpointing which guy in my tier to buy, and then seeing the rest of the group go over my target price. Having already paid more at QB than I preferred by $10+, I figured I should jump on this while I could. That instinct was pretty much correct. The next cheapest top back was Saquon Barkley, who went for $54, all the others went for $55 or more, plus Leonard Fournette also exceeded my target price at $56.
I try to keep a running +/- tally in an auction, so after two players purchased (and three overall), I was already at +$5 ($11 on Watson, -$6 on Kamara). I decided to go really cheap at tight end, and instead spend more on the second running back and a little less on receivers, after seeing how the top receivers were getting priced.
Here's the rest of my roster:
RB2 - Devonta Freeman, $40: On the down side, he's a big concussion risk after what happened last year. On the plus side, he's running behind a great OL and still gets the vast majority of the goal line carries for the Falcons. I took the plunge on him after losing out on Davante Adams and A.J. Green, and allocating less to my WR budget.
WR1 - Adam Thielen, $25: After getting shut out on Adams and Green (and passing up on Keenan Allen at $36 when Tim Schuler had him there), I instead wanted to get two tier-3 wideouts, that roughly translated to the third round. Thielen was one of the first off the board and an agnostic buy at $25.
WR2 - Stefon Diggs, $29: When I won Diggs, Scott Jenstad asked me if I was just bidding him up, with the knowledge that I knew that he liked him a lot. I'm not going to fib - I didn't want Scott getting a good price on Diggs. But the fact of the matter is that I like Diggs a lot - so much that I have a sidebet with Chris Liss made on-air on our SXM show comparing Diggs vs. Amari Cooper.
WR3 - Robby Anderson, $12: It's still possible that Anderson will face a suspension under the NFL's personal conduct policy, and that would certainly put a crimp in my plans, given my flex player.
Flex - Julian Edelman, $5: This was unintentional - I know it's a standard league and that Edelman is less valuable in that format, but I was bidding against Pats homer Mike Doria and I still thought that this was undervalued. We'll see - I'll have to ride out the first four weeks, though.
TE - O.J. Howard, $1: I refused to go $3 on Jack Doyle, Ben Watson among others, and I felt pretty happy getting Howard for a buck. I'd feel happier if Cameron Brate went away, but I viewed Howard as an ascendant player before he got hurt last season.
K - Chris Boswell, $1: No comment necessary.
DL - Cam Jordan, $1: Pretty happy about getting (IMO) a top-five DL for a buck.
LB - Christian Kirksey, $4: I probably didn't need to spend the extra bucks here, as there are a lot of high-tackle linebackers. But as long as he stays healthy, Kirksey is going to be a good source of tackles.
DB - Keanu Neal, $5: I got in a mini-bidding war over Neal, ranked as the #2 DB using our league's scoring system in our draft software.
R's - Dede Westbrook ($2), Jeremy Hill ($2), Mike Gesicki ($1), Corey Clement ($1), Chase Edmonds ($1).
All in all, I'm pretty happy, though if I had to do it again I would structure my team according to my original plan instead of buying Watson. But ... if he's anywhere near as awesome as he was last season, this team should do well.
What do you think?