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ADP Report: Early Spring Update

This post updates the ADP trends generated by the NFBC drafts, with a focus on late January and early February. It's important to compare apples to apples, so for this second view I will use only information from the NFBC Online format, a 30-round 12-team contest that began drafting in mid-January (there have been 18 drafts completed between Jan. 16 and Feb. 19) and will have in-season FAAB. I have divided the data into two parts – those completed by Feb. 7 (9 drafts) and those that have been completed between Feb. 8 and Feb. 19 (also with 9 completed drafts). Even though the sample size is small, this should give us a picture of which players are moving up draft boards and which are dropping.

This first portion of the ADP review will focus on the players that reached the top 60 either in the first or second time period (the first five rounds). Since these are the top players, we'll see generally less movement up-and-down. But still, a few spots of ADP can indicate a change in opinion on that player. Remember that small movement early in draft season can indicate which players could move up sharply during prime draft season in mid-to-late March. Experienced fantasy players have seen many examples of players becoming a hot commodity during the height of draft season and being drafted several rounds earlier than their previous ADP, while others drop back precipitously. If we can discern which players might be pushed up, it is possible to plan accordingly. A fantasy manager can look carefully and consider whether to move the player up their own draft rankings in order to have a chance (within reason) to roster them. Similarly, falling players could allow you to wait on them even past where you think they're worth in order to get an even better value.
The first thing to notice is that Max Scherzer, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Yelich each moved up two spots in the first round partially as a response to the Francisco Lindor injury. However, these three players have more helium than the others that were going in the first round behind Lindor. In the second round, Trevor Story and Paul Goldschmidt have found a better reception, moving up three and four spots respectively. The biggest upward mover in the third round was Kris Bryant, as he essentially swapped places with teammate Anthony Rizzo. The fourth round shows rising interest in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Noah Syndergaard, while the fifth round unsurprisingly shows a big gain for J.T. Realmuto after his trade, along with Jameson Taillon, Lorenzo Cain, and Stephen Strasburg. Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen remain the first two closers off the board, but both saw their ADP decline as fantasy managers decided to prioritize other positions in the fifth round.
We plan to update this blog later again in early March and we can see if these trends are arrested or continue as the draft season reaches its crescendo in the last two weeks of March.
Those rising by more than one spot:
Max Scherzer 5th to 3rd
J.D.Martinez 7th to 5th
Christian Yelich 9th to 7th
Alex Bregman 13th to 11th
Trevor Story 18th to 15th
Paul Goldschmidt 24th to 20th
Andrew Benintendi 29th to 27th
Kris Bryant 36th to 32nd
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 43rd to 38th
Noah Syndergaard 44th to 40th
J.T. Realmuto 58th to 48th
Tommy Pham 55th to 52nd
Jameson Taillon 62nd to 54th
Lorenzo Cain 61st to 58th
Stephen Strasburg 64th to 59th
Those falling by more than one spot:
Francisco Lindor 3rd to 12th
Aaron Judge 15th to 18th
Bryce Harper 20th to 22nd
Corey Kluber 22nd to 24th
Blake Snell 28th to 30th
Anthony Rizzo 32nd to 37th
Rhys Hoskins 41st to 43rd
Anthony Rendon 42nd to 44th
Edwin Diaz 46th to 49th
Blake Treinen 49th to 56th
James Paxton 53rd to 57th
Ozzie Albies 54th to 61st
Gleyber Torres 56th to 62nd
Jack Flaherty 60th to 64th
Current TOP 60 ADP NFBC ONLINE (between Feb. 8 and Feb. 19):
(Along with Positional Rank)
1  Mike Trout OF1
2  Mookie Betts OF2
3  Max Scherzer SP1
4  Jose Ramirez 3B1
5  J.D. Martinez OF3
6  Ronald Acuna OF4
7  Christian Yelich OF5
8  Trea Turner SS1
9  Nolan Arenado 3B2
10  Jacob deGrom SP2
11  Alex Bregman SS2 (also qualifies at 3B)
12  Francisco Lindor SS3
13  Chris Sale SP3
14  Jose Altuve 2B1
15  Trevor Story SS4
16  Manny Machado SS5
17  Javier Baez SS6 (also qualifies at 2B/3B)
18  Aaron Judge OF6
19 Freddie Freeman 1B1
20  Paul Goldschmidt 1B2
21  Justin Verlander SP4
22  Bryce Harper OF7
23  Giancarlo Stanton OF8
24  Corey Kluber SP5
25  Gerrit Cole SP6
26  Aaron Nola SP7
27  Andrew Benintendi OF9
28  Charlie Blackmon OF10
29  Whit Merrifield 2B2 (also qualifies at OF)
30  Blake Snell SP8
31 Trevor Bauer SP9
32  Kris Bryant 3B3 (also qualifies at OF)
33  Starling Marte OF11
34  Juan Soto OF12
35  Luis Severino SP10
36  Clayton Kershaw SP11
37  Anthony Rizzo 1B3
38  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B4
39  Carlos Carrasco SP12
40  Noah Syndergaard SP13
41  Adalberto Mondesi SS7
42  Walker Buehler SP14
43  Rhys Hoskins OF13
44  Anthony Rendon 3B5
45  Khris Davis UT1
46  Cody Bellinger 1B4 (also qualifies at OF)
47  Xander Bogaerts SS8
48  J.T. Realmuto C1
49  Edwin Diaz CL1
50  Patrick Corbin SP15
51  Carlos Correa SS9
52  Tommy Pham OF14
53  Gary Sanchez C2
54  Jameson Taillon SP16
55  Eugenio Suarez 3B6
56  Blake Treinen CL2
57  James Paxton SP17
58  Lorenzo Cain OF15
59  Stephen Strasburg SP18
60  Jack Flaherty SP19
Starting Pitchers - 19
Closers - 2
Catchers - 2
First Basemen - 4
Second Basemen - 2
Third Basemen - 6
Shortstops - 9
Outfielders - 15
Utility - 1

SUMMARY of Rounds 6 though 15: These players had the largest moves up or down out of those players that had an ADP of between 61-180 either in the first segment of our study (Jan. 16 through Feb. 7) or the second segment (Feb. 8 through Feb. 19). If you like one of the rising players, you may have to jump on him early. If you are interested in one of the players falling down the draft board, it may be possible to wait and draft him later than you originally planned.

Rising ADP of 8 or more positions (ranked by number of places risen):
Pedro Strop 218 to 180 (+38)
Rafael Devers 168 to 148 (+20)
David Robertson 170 to 151 (+19)
Josh James 193 to 175 (+18)
Robinson Cano 141 to 125 (+16)
Cody Allen 172 to 156 (+16)
Scooter Gennett 110 to 95 (+15)
Joey Votto 78 to 65 (+13)
Yoan Moncada 176 to 163 (+13)
Billy Hamilton 152 to 139 (+13)
Yu Darvish 153 to 141 (+12)
Nick Castellanos 101 to 90 (+11)
Nick Pivetta 158 to 147 (+11)
Cesar Hernandez 163 to 152 (+11)
Yasmani Grandal 138 to 128 (+10)
Jose Alvarado 167 t0 157 (+10)
Hyun-Jin Ryu 174 to 164 (+10)
Marcell Ozuna 86 to 77 (+9)
Josh Donaldson 102 to 93 (+9)
Corey Knebel 131 to 122 (+9)
Chris Archer 135 to 126 (+9)
Felipe Vazquez 93 to 85 (+8)
Wade Davis 124 to 116 (+8)
Salvador Perez 128 to 120 (+8)
Falling ADP of 8 or more positions (ranked by number of places fallen):
Shohei Ohtani 155 to 210 (-55)
Kyle Freeland 149 to 172 (-23)
Mallex Smith 83 to 102 (-19)
Stephen Piscotty 150 to 166 (-16)
Matt Carpenter 73 to 88 (-15)
Yusei Kikuchi 156 to 171 (-15)
Nate Eovaldi 147 to 162 (-15)
Ender Inciarte 132 to 145 (-13)
Brandon Nimmo 136 to 149 (-13)
Eddie Rosario 85 to 97 (-12)
Wil Myers 109 to 119 (-10)
Andrew McCutchen 143 to 153 (-10)
Max Muncy 92 to 100 (-8)
Aaron Hicks 115 to 123 (-8)
Robbie Ray 123 to 131 (-8)
Miguel Cabrera 160 to 168 (-8)