Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Cleveland Browns.
The system/scheme
• Freddie Kitchens was a QB coach working for Bruce Arians when they were with the Cardinals- that may explain why he was so successful last year. At its core, the offense is based on the attacking vertically, which opens up the rest of the offense. We also learned that Kitchens will throw out of 12 personnel to give his QB more favorable defensive formations to throw against. In addition, the Browns brought Todd Monken in as the OC, and he showed what he could do with the Bucs when they were attacking defenses vertically, and they were moving the ball up and down the field whether Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center.
Metrics
• Nick Chubb is a big RB, but he has 90th-percentile speed and 91st-percentile explosion to go with 57th-percentile agility while being a 98th-percentile SPARQ athlete- we are looking at an extremely talented individual.
• Sure, Kareem Hunt was dominant with the Chiefs- but was it the system more than the player? Considering that he has 44th-percentile speed, 17th-percentile agility (I do understand that his juke rate belied that number when he was with the Chiefs) and 68th-percentile explosion, he shouldn't be any type of a threat to Chubb. Also, without the benefit of the Chiefs' amazing screen-game design, there's no guarantee he becomes the receiving back after returning from his suspension.
• Odell Beckham may have been held back by Eli Manning the same way that Michael Jordan was held back in college while playing for Dean Smith. Not only is he one of the most ridiculously talented players in the league, he has 86th-percentile speed, a 95th percentile catch radius, and 98th percentile agility. He may not have Tyreek Hill's speed, but he's every bit the outlier that Hill is- and now he'll have a QB to maximize his talent.
• Other than Beckham, the only other receiver with an amazing athletic profile is David Njoku, who has 79th-percentile speed, 96th-percentile explosion and 82nd-percentile agility. Going into his third year, he's in position to take advantage of the attention that defenses will have to pay to Beckham and Chubb.
Positive Spin
• The offense picks up where it left off last year, but Beckham makes it nearly impossible for defenses to stack the box (Chubb saw the fourth-most stacked boxes in the league last year), and they become one of the best units in the league.
Negative Spin
• Jarvis Landry gets jealous that he's not the star receiver on the team, creating tension in the locker room, while Njoku remains inconsistent, and the offense is merely good, not great.
My advice-
• Forget ADP and the wisdom of the crowds- Beckham finally has a QB, and he could give us a Randy Moss in New England type of season- I want him as my WR1 and will draft him unless I get a top-three draft pick and really must have a RB.
• The idea of stacking a WR and RB often doesn't work, but if Chubb is the best player on my board when I'm picking, there's no compelling reason to fade him.
• Unless I'm in a league that's part of a big tournament (and then I want to stack), I'm unwilling to spend an early pick on Baker Mayfield. As much as I believe he's a superstar, this offense should have quite a few rushing TDs as well, and I feel I can get a better QB value later in the draft.
• Once the top five or six TEs are off the board, Njoku is a solid pick- but my target in drafts is Vance McDonald, which is the main reason why I won't likely draft Njoku.