Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Philadelphia Eagles.
The system/scheme
• The Eagles have clearly studied and utilized analytics over the past few seasons, and they're one of the teams that we know will use their strengths to take advantage of the weaknesses of the opposing defense. With the emergence of second-year TE Dallas Goedert, expect them to run much more 12 personnel- that will allow them to throw the ball against defenses that are aligned to stop the run. Also, if Miles Sanders works out, they'll also try to throw to the RBs more on early downs, increasing their success rate to help them sustain long drives. Finally, the addition of DeSean Jackson gives the offense the vertical threat they've needed that will put added stress on defense that'll give many additional play-calling options to the coaching staff.
Metrics
• Miles Sanders has 76th-percentile speed and burst along with 83rd-percentile agility, and the Eagles drafted him in the second round. Although he may find his way onto the field for some early-down work, he profiles as one of the better pass-catching RBs this team has had in a while.
JJ Arcega-Whiteside has great size at 6'2", 225 pounds with 88th-percentile speed, but he has just 29th-percentile burst and 11th-percentile agility. His profile makes it look as if he'll be a vertical weapon in the passing game. That said, it may take him a year to develop while the team has quality WRs currently on the roster.
• Dallas Goedert has 74th-percentile explosion to go with 79th-percentile agility, and he should become a deadly weapon in the passing game, especially when the Eagles put two TEs on the field.
Positive Spin
• DeSean Jackson and Miles Sanders both add an explosive element to the offense, giving Carson Wentz one of the most diverse set of weapons in the league. All of the talent allows Doug Pederson to consistently keep opposing defenses on their heels. Then throw in an excellent OL, this offense ends the season comfortably as a top-five unit.
Negative Spin
• Jackson deals with injuries, taking away their best vertical threat while Sanders struggles in pass protection, which forces Jordan Howard into a much larger role than the team anticipated. The offense is still very good, but without a full array of weapons, Wentz is under consistent pressure, causing the offense to be inconsistent.
My advice-
• Carson Wentz wasn't as good last year before his injury as he was in 2017, at least from a fantasy perspective, but he did improve on a number of metrics, and his career ascent is still very real. Being he's a great deep passer, it was important that they brought in DeSean Jackson, as that will not only open up the field, but let Wentz play to his strengths. He has very good talent at each receiving position along with a great run-blocking line, and his coach it great about using analytics to help them stay in positive down and distance situations. It also could matter that they acquired Jordan Howard, who was the 3rd best blocker as a RB last year. With an ADP of 90, he's an excellent target as your QB1, and he has the ability to be a top-3 option.
• Jordan Howard is being ignored by the fantasy community because the Eagles drafted Miles Sanders in the second round. Maybe the masses are correct, but I have a feeling they brought in Howard because he was the third-best blocking RB in the league last year, and protecting Wentz is job No. 1, especially with Nick Foles having departed. Howard should see plenty of early-down work, as well as goal-line chances, but Sanders will have a role, and truthfully, nobody knows that will ultimately be. Howard could do exceptionally well in an offense that will dictate light boxes while defenses must respect the pass, and with an ADP of 92, he could be a contrarian pick that pays off.
• Miles Sanders could have a massive rookie year, but it's my opinion that the team acquired Jordan Howard for his ability to pass block, and Sanders has already been called out for deficiencies in that area this preseason. Should that cause him to see spot duty, he won't justify his ADP. If you believe he'll be the guy, then you should make sure to draft him no later than the fifth or sixth round.
• Alshon Jeffery saw variance in his targets and although he was a solid fantasy option, he wasn't dependable week-to-week. Now the Eagles have DeSean Jackson and Dallas Goedert is in his second year, and this looks like an offense that won't force anyone targets (except maybe Zach Ertz). He's still capable of putting up weeks with 80 yards and a TD, just expect more down weeks than usual this season, and with an ADP of WR27, he seems overvalued.
• DeSean Jackson is a perfect fit for Carson Wentz because the QB is an excellent deep ball thrower with an excellent pass-blocking OL. And with all the weapons on the offense along with the play design of the Eagles coaches, it'll be difficult for defenses to game plan to stop D-Jax. As always, he's the ideal best-ball draft choice, but he showed when playing with Ryan Fitzpatrick, that if he sees enough targets, he can have weekly value. He's an absolute steal at his ADP of 180- I'd recommend drafting him any time after the 12th round if in need of a WR.
• Nelson Agholor saw his usage go all over the board last year, and now the team added DeSean Jackson and JJ Arcega Whiteside. He had about 63 targets in each of the last 2 years and posted 768/8 and 736/4, and it's unlikely those numbers go up, so we're looking at a best-case scenario of him being a flex option.
• JJ Arcega-Whiteside- Many analysts are saying he could overtake Nelson Agholor for slot duties, but his metrics are that of a deep threat outside WR. With Desean Jackson on the team, it's very unlikely that he gets enough time on the field, unless there's an injury, to be fantasy relevant.
• Zach Ertz is clearly one of the three best TEs in the game, but the Eagles have added weapons to their offense over the last couple years. With Dallas Goedert looking like a star as well, both TEs should both be on the field often, and both could soak up a ton of targets in the middle of the field. Ertz caught 116 passes to lead all TEs last year, but Philly could boast a balanced offense that also has to feed WRs Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. There easily can be a case made that he won't be the focal point of his offense and if he's not, his ADP will be way too much to pay.
• Dallas Goedert is clearly going to be a superstar, but even if the Eagles run a lot of 12 personnel to get them both on the field, they have so much talent across the offense that it's unlikely that he'll get enough targets to be more than a TE2.