Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The system/scheme
• Ben Roethlisberger is another year older while both Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are gone, and in addition, their OL coach Mike Munchak has moved on. Even though Bell wasn't around last year, this offense has been very well balanced for years- along with an incredible rushing attack, they've had an aggressive passing attack that could break down even the best defenses in the league. This team hasn't had very good coaching- they've been fortunate to have enough talent to beat many opponents, but it's nearly impossible to know what the philosophy of this offense will be.
• Despite having very talented players on the O-line, they weren't a great unit until Mike Munchak became the line coach five years ago. Since that time, they've been a top-five unit for both the run and pass- Munchak left in the offseason, so it's possible there's fallout and decline for this unit- certainly not freefall, but maybe a moderate decline.
Metrics
• James Conner has a decent speed score (63rd-percentile) but has next to zero burst and very little (18th-percentile) agility, making me wonder if his fantasy production was simply a product of running behind a fantastic OL in an offense in which defenses must always worry about Roethlisberger and the passing attack.
• Jaylen Samuels starts the season as the backup to James Conner, but he has better measurables across the board (83rd-percentile speed, 53rd-percentile explosiveness and 72nd-percentile agility), and even though he came into the league as a pass-catching specialist (converted TE), he could flourish should Conner miss time.
• Benny Snell was selected in the fourth round of this year's draft, so the team clearly likes him, and he has feature back size at 5'10", 224 pounds. However, he has slightly below-average speed and agility with just a 12th-percentile explosiveness score, so it's unlikely that we're looking at any more than a replacement-level NFL backup.
• Donte Moncrief is above the 93rd-percentile in speed and explosiveness, but just 40th-percentile agility, so he profiles as the deep threat he's primarily been at time during his career.
• James Washington does have above-average speed (63rd-percentile), but he only has 38th-percentile explosiveness and 27th-percentile agility. At best, he looks like a vertical WR, but his measurables don't make it seem that he'd be great at it.
• Vance McDonald is a 94th-percentile SPARQ athlete with 86th-percentile speed, 57th-percentile explosiveness and 45th-percentile agility. As to the lower agility score, he'd rather run over you than around you anyway, so that's fine- just ask Chris Conte (the player he ran over and through for a long TD last year).
Positive Spin
• The OL doesn't miss a beat without Munchak, and the rushing attack continues to churn out chunks of yardage, which forces defenses from selling out to stop either the run or the pass. JuJu Smith-Schuster provides Roethlisberger with an elite WR that draws extra attention while Donte Moncrief and Vance McDonald stay healthy, and both have the best seasons of their careers.
Negative Spin
• The OL has a slight slip and Conner's lack of athleticism catches up with him, and the running game isn't a concern for defenses. That allows easy double-teams on Smith-Schuster, and in a higher-pressure role, he's unable to overcome the defensive attention. This leads Roethlisberger to become frustrated and the bickering behind closed doors has the entire offense coming unraveled.
My advice-
• Ben Roethlisberger loses Antonio Brown, and slot WR is a question, so he'll have a less-talented receiving group than he had last year. The good news is that the defense has been ordinary, so it's likely that he'll continue to be the heart of the offense, as they should need to throw a lot. He always ends up as a top-10 fantasy QB, and his ADP is 100, so he's fairly-priced in drafts. But the fact that the Steelers will face a very tough schedule against the pass is potentially problematic, and enough to make me look for a different QB in a good situation with an easier schedule.
• James Conner- Even though the Steelers have always leaned on a feature back, Jaylen Samuels is a much better receiver, so it's conceivable that Conner doesn't get the volume needed to be an RB1. Also, they lost their OL coach, Mike Munchak, who's one of the best coaches in the league, so the line could take a step backwards. That potential risk adds some concern when picking early in a draft. If he's drafted as a RB2, he'd be a value pick, but in most leagues, he'll go as an RB1, so it might be better to take a WR or a different RB with that late-first or early-second round pick.
• Jaylen Samuels- If Conner misses time, don't dismiss the potential that Samuels could usurp the starting job because of his superior athletic profile. This scenario makes him one of the better backup RBs to draft, and he's simply way more talented than most backups in the NFL. His draft price is great (ADP of 123) and he could have flex value if he gets receiving work, even while Conner starts games.
• The biggest question JuJu Smith-Schuster faces is what impact the loss of Antonio Brown will have on him. He already saw the fourth-most targets in the league last year, and that was with Brown on the team. That makes it tough to predict more targets, but he'll also now see No. 1 CBs and plenty of double-coverage as well, and nobody knows how he'll respond to that. It certainly helps that Roethlisberger will be throwing him the ball, as he's always been great at feeding his top target with enough volume to be dominant. He clearly has the potential to be a top-five WR, but to completely ignore the fact that his situation could cause him struggles wouldn't be wise.
• Despite horrid QB play last year, Donte Moncrief's 668 yards/3 TD line came on just 89 targets. He'll now have a phenomenal deep thrower in Roethlisberger and with Smith-Schuster occupying the defense's attention, he could be in line for the first really good season of his career. Sure, it'll take a leap of faith, but between the measurables and the situation, (he should have no problem beating out James Washington for a starting job), but to get a piece of the Steelers passing game after 150 picks in a draft, that makes for a great risk/reward ratio. (Note- his ADP could move up throughout August as news keeps rolling in that he could be the starter.)
• James Washington will need to beat out Donte Moncrief for a starting role, and not only is Moncrief a veteran, but he's athletically superior to Washington. However, fantasy owners are pushing their chips in on Washington, who has an ADP of 129, almost 80 spots higher than Moncrief. I recommend letting someone else draft Washington at that price.
• Vance McDonald may be the actual second receiver on the Steelers with the departure of Antonio Brown. It really helped that Jesse James left in free agency and wasn't replaced, as that all but ensures that McDonald will be a full-time player, which he wasn't last year when posting 50/610/4 last year on 72 targets. With Donte Moncrief being a deep threat and no real slot WR of note on the team, McDonald could not only be a primary underneath option, but one who is used heavily down the seams and in the red zone. If I don't get one of the top 3 TEs, McDonald is my target this year, but many are wise to him, and he's being drafted as a top-10 TE, so be prepared to grab him if a run on TE starts.