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NFFC Classic: 14-team Dynamics

On Saturday morning I participated in the NFFC Classic tournament, a league in a series of 14-team leagues. My league drafted live in Las Vegas at 10:00 a.m. local time, already aware that LeSean McCoy had been released by the Bills, but not yet signed by the Chiefs. By that point the Texans had traded away Jadeveon Clowney to the Seahawks, but not yet acquired Carlos Hyde or completed their blockbuster deal with the Dolphins. Adam Schefter had just tweeted out 15 minutes prior to the draft that the Cowboys and Zeke Elliott were close to a deal. It hasn't happened yet, but it was a welcomed tonic from the doom-and-gloom ensuing from Jerry Jones's comments on Friday.

Before I break down my picks, here's the full draft board. Names have been cropped to protect the innocent, but I'm Team 11/14. Here's a reminder that the NFFC uses a Kentucky Derby Style pick system to determine draft order. The 11th spot was my 8th preference, but I was the 12/14 of teams assigned their draft slots. Four teams in my league got their first choice.

1.11 Nick Chubb - With my first pick I was hoping to get, in this order: Ezekiel Elliott (hoping my competitors just saw the Friday doom-and-gloom comments and not Saturday's optimism), Juju Smith-Schuster, Chubb, James Conner or Davante Adams. If all were gone before me, that would mean I'd have to settle for Lev Bell, but instead I was able to get Chubb with the pick. Yes, Week 10 and beyond is a concern once Kareem Hunt is eligible - but I'm of the belief that Chubb will still have plenty of work even when Hunt returns, and that those touches will be worth it.

2.4 Mike Evans (18) - I called this shot during the week on our Sirius/XM show. I don't think I've been in the 4-7 slots in my 12-team drafts, and that's usually the range where Evans has gone the most. But Evans is going to have so many targets in this offense, with the Bucs having a narrow tree and a lousy running game. I could have gone with Travis Kelce here as well, but I'm in the camp that doesn't want to invest in an early tight end in a 14-team league. In my opinion, it's not worth having to chase after RBs and WRs when you need three WRs and a Flex in a 14-team league. The counterargument is that every team is weak in a spot somewhere, and it's easier to find a back or receiver later than a tight end. I can see both ways on this. If Evans had gone earlier, instead of Todd Gurley, I think I would have gone with Kelce instead.

3.4 Marlon Mack (32) - This was a fulcrum point in my draft, one dictated in part due to the format. My next pick would be coming at the 53rd overall slot, and I didn't think I like my choices at running back then, at least not to be my RB2, and at least compared to the wide receivers that I thought would be there instead. If you look at the 14-team league ADP's in the NFFC, the backs that I'd have to choose from were likely to be among Mark Ingram (though he would have been gone in my league), James White or Phillip Lindsay, players I was uncomfortable being my RB2. As it turns out, one back that I *was* comfortable with in that spot was available, in Sony Michel. But not knowing that in advance I went with the RB here. I chose Mack over David Montgomery because I think he'll have greater volume, and because he was more involved in the passing game over the second half last season. This choice necessarily meant passing on Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, amongst a slew of other WR's that didn't make it back to me by 4.11.

4.11 D.J. Moore (53) - My preferred targets (Kenny Golladay, Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd) went pretty close, right before me, but I still like the Moore pick here. He's the #1 receiver in a passing offense that should be in the upper half of the NFL.

5.4 Jarvis Landry (60) - This was pretty much an agnostic pick - Landry still works well in a PPR format, and though Josh Gordon or Alshon Jeffery has a higher ceiling, I instead with the higher floor player. Ask me again to choose tomorrow and I might take Gordon.

6.11 Miles Sanders (81) - This was the opposite of the Landry pick - I'm all about Miles Sanders' upside, and thought that he stood head and shoulders above he remaining running backs at this point. So I went with him instead of my fourth receiver, knowing that after six more picks I'd have another shot at my next receiver, and liked four receivers if they came back.

(Narrator: "They didn't come back.")

7.4 Vance McDonald (88) - So, those four receivers that I liked - Robby Anderson, Sterling Shepard, Corey Davis and Emmanuel Sanders - all went in those six ensuing picks. In my mind, there was a considerable tier drop, and while I contemplated pushing up Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Dante Pettis to this slot, as the 1:00-pick clock ticked down I couldn't push myself to do it. Instead I took the top available TE in McDonald. I'm lukewarm on the decision, even as I like McDonald, I don't how much separates him from the next five TE's taken. Obviously, there will be a difference in the results. I just hope I got the right one.

8.11 Dante Pettis (109) - As I said on Twitter at the time, Pettis is a player whose value dropped too much due to the preseason and training camp news cycle. He's their best receiver, or at least has the potential to be the best on the team, something even Kyle Shanahan attested to this past week. He was never at risk of not making the team, and he's going to play. He'll make a fine flex and bye-week receiver.

9.4 Justice Hill (116) - This cost me Jameis Winston, which hurts mostly because I have Evans and this is, as Jim Coventry likes to call it, a "jackpot league" with an overall prize. That means that pairing Winston with Evans has some advantages over another quarterback in the same range. But I really like Hill's upside on a team that's going to run a lot, and I like his pass-catching skills to boot.

10.11 Lamar Jackson (137) - There's not much else to say that I or anyone else at RotoWire can say at this point. I stayed on brand.

11.4 Jalen Richard (144) - Richard is probably my biggest regret of this draft, because I misjudged the quarterback market so, so, so badly. When you're one of the last to take a quarterback, usually you should be among the first to take your backup. Jackson was QB14, and I was the second-to-last team to take a QB. It was time to take another - whether it was Philip Rivers, Mitchell Trubisky, or Dak Prescott doesn't matter, just that I needed to take one of them. Alas, after my pick eight quarterbacks went before my 12th round selection, including those three QBs. Don't get me wrong, I like Richard, as I think he's still going to command the lion's share of RB receptions for the Raiders, who actually have a pretty narrow tree. But in terms of reading the room, this was a mistake.

12.11 Nick Foles (165) - Foles is my consolation prize following the QB run, and a close call between him and Matthew Stafford. I like Foles pairing up with offensive coordinator John DeFilippo again, connecting with DeDe Westbrook.

13.4 Jack Doyle (172) - Pretty much in the middle of his ADP range for this contest, I'm betting on Doyle being the better player than teammate Eric Ebron.

14.11 Terry McLaurin (193) - McLaurin seems to have some upside and aside from Art Monk remains one of the few remaining receivers for Washington. Whether that matters remains up for debate, but I like the dart throw here.

15.4 Harrison Butker (200) - "Eh, I don't really see a RB or WR I really like here, might as well take the top remaining kicker, and Butker has a Week 12 bye week ..." I thought at the time. LeSean McCoy went with the next pick.

16.11 New England defense (221) - Again with the theory that there wasn't a skill position player I was crazy about here. The only problem with that theory? There's still four more rounds remaining!

17.4 Jordan Thomas (228) - My last instance of staying on #Brand. Normally I don't take three TE's, but this isn't a normal draft.

18.11 Chris Conley (249) - When Nick Foles blows up (in a good way), I'll be right there with Conley ... someone who struggled to beat out DeMarcus Robinson. Did I mention that this is a deep draft?

19.4 Rashard Higgins (256) - As much as it's possible to get sniped at pick 256, I wanted Jordan Scarlett here and should have taken him before Conley, who probably would have made it back to me. Given that I already have Jarvis Landry, I probably should have found a different pick here.

20.11 Josh Reynolds (267) - I like this pick better than Higgins and probably better than Conley. If something happens to one of the big three Rams receivers, Reynolds immediately steps into a pretty good spot.

This team only has five RBs, which is one too short, but RBs are the most commonly added players via free agency. I'm going to have to be aggressive at the first instance of an upside RB appearing. FAAB management in a 14-team league is still important, but I don't think that saving your free agent budget for the second half of the season is as nearly important here than it is in baseball.

My team by position:

QB - Lamar Jackson, Nick Foles
RB - Nick Chubb, Marlon Mack, Miles Sanders, Justice Hill, Jalen Richard
WR - Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, Jarvis Landry, Dante Pettis, Terry McLaurin, Chris Conley, Rashard Higgins, Josh Reynolds
TE - Vance McDonald, Jack Doyle, Jordan Thomas
K - Harrison Butker
D - New England

I have one more big draft remaining - Amici, the league established by Peter Schoenke that started RotoWire. It has Pete, Herb Ilk, Ken Crites and myself among RotoWire people, and the whole league has been together for over 20 years. It's a little odd I think that my draft schedule is relatively light the week the NFL begins, but in a way I'm grateful, so that I can focus on setting lineups and ranking the Value Meter. I'll try to do a "wallet" piece this week as well.