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FSTA Experts Draft

Last Thursday at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, we had our annual FSTA Expert Draft. It's a standard 5 x 5 mixed league but with 13-teams. I picked ninth. Here are the results:Screen Shot 2015-01-21 at 12.31.49 AM

Click to enlarge the grid above.

A few thoughts:

Round 1: I said on our Sirius XM show if Clayton Kershaw weren't there at No. 9 - and I didn't think he'd be - I was going with Yasiel Puig in Round 1. Well, Kershaw wasn't there - but Miguel Cabrera was - and that was a no-brainer.

Round 2: I wound up with Puig anyway. Forget the 16 HR last year. Puig is 6-3, 235 and looks like he should be playing in the NFL. At age 24, the power should be there.

Round 3: Bryce Harper was my Round 2 target. I don't get docked for last year's numbers - they don't count in 2015. Only skills matter.

Round 4: I was one pick away from Max Scherzer - who hadn't signed at the time. What a monster he should be in the NL East. I settled for Zack Greinke (over Corey Kluber and Johnny Cueto) because Greinke's situation is better, and he's done it for longer.

Round 5: Jon Lester - he was great at both AL stops last year, and the move to the NL should only boost his stock.

Round 6: Craig Kimbrel - he was the first closer off the board, but it was time, and I wanted the extra 30 Ks he adds over your normal 1 K/IP type. I nearly took Aroldis Chapman instead who I like slightly more, but Kimbrel has the better team and ballpark.

Round 7: Prince Fielder - last I checked he's projected to be healthy for the start of the year and still playing in Texas.

Round 8: Cody Allen - I wanted to take Dellin Betances, but I'm more sure Allen has the job, and like Betances also gets you more Ks than your typical closer. I actually forgot to consider Matt Harvey, who went three picks later, here and might have taken him had I thought of it.

Round 9: Kris Bryant - maybe a reach given Manny Machado went in Round 15, but I didn't know that at the time, and power is always easy to trade.

Round 10: Masahiro Tanaka - No idea if his elbow will hold up, but if it does, he's five rounds too late.

Round 11: Justin Morneau - Pure value pick as he's my third first baseman and for that reason clogs the utility spot. But I couldn't pass up the batting average and production in Coors Field.

Round 12: Joc Pederson - my second rookie, but one who should start from Day 1, and projects as a power-speed threat. I'm still light on steals, but if Pederson, Harper and Puig can give me 45 between them, I can trade power for SB later.

Round 13: Jake Odorizzi - was great in the second half, and I trust the Rays to develop pitchers.

Round 14: Hyun-Jin Ryu - very steady his first two years and pitches in a good park.

Round 15: Danny Santana - qualifies at SS, nice cheap speed option. I don't need to be in the top-half in steals out of the draft, but I do need to be close enough to the pack to make a move via trade in June or July.

Round 16: Jose Fernandez - not expected back until June or July, but this is a league - unlike like NFBC - where you can stash DL'd guys, and it doesn't cost you a spot. Probably worth a 10th round pick in this case.

Round 17: Carlos Beltran - completely healthy now, should DH and play a little OF. Even at 37, should be able to take advantage of that short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium.

Round 18: Matt Shoemaker - I like the Ks late in the year and the park.

Round 19: Rene Rivera - There's no such thing as a reach in Round 19, but this might have been one only because he'd have lasted a few rounds longer. But he hit a bit in Petco last year, and I'd expect his defense to play in Tampa with John Jaso filling a DH/1B/OF role most of the time.

Round 20: Chris Owings - I needed a MI, and with Didi Gregorius gone, Owings should have the job in hitter-friendly Arizona.

Round 21: Michael Bourn - Once the preeminent base-stealer in the game, Bourn's been slowed by injuries the last couple years. If healthy he should steal 30 and maybe more. And I still need bags.

Round 22: Jake McGee - Ideally I'd have a third closer, and McGee is due back sometime in April. Plus, as I mentioned you can stash DL'd guys indefinitely.

Round 23: Scooter Gennett - He's got the 2B job to himself in a decent hitter's park. Not much power or speed, but could hit for a decent average and score some runs.

Round 24: John Lackey - Was awful after the trade to the Cardinals, but had a great year and a half for the Red Sox before that. Some upside here if he regains that form.

Round 25: Robinson Chirinos - Has some pop in his bat and should be the starting catcher in one of the league's best hitter's parks.

Round 26: Kyle Lohse - The draft was taking forever, and so I made this pick in haste. Still, Lohse has been steady the last few years and could be useful while I wait for McGee and eventually Fernandez to get healthy.

Round 27: Brad Miller - Hot commodity heading into last year. Still the favorite for the job in spring training.

Round 28: Jason Hammel - Was great before the trade to the AL. Is back on the Cubs this year.

Round 29: Alejandro de Aza - Good power/speed option likely to have the job in a hitter's park.

Roster by Position:

C Robinson Chirinos/Rene Rivera

1B Miguel Cabrera

2B Scooter Gennett

3B Kris Bryant

SS Danny Santana

CI Prince Fielder

MI Chris Owings

OF Yasiel Puig/Bryce Harper/Joc Pederson/Carlos Beltran/Michael Bourn

U Justin Morneau

SP Zack Greinke/Jon Lester/Masahiro Tanaka/Jake Odorizzi

SP Hyun-Jin Ryu/Matt Shoemaker/John Lackey

RP Craig Kimbrel/Cody Allen

DL Jose Fernandez/Jake McGee

B Kyle Lohse/Jason Hammel/Brad Miller Alejandro de Aza

Strategy:

I'll almost always go best player available for the first few rounds, and I'll try to get at least two good, high K pitchers in the first six if possible.

I was happy to snag an elite closer in Round 6.

I don't care much about position scarcity except at catcher, but every time I had a catcher in my sights, he was taken, so I punted the position and took two presumed starters on the cheap. Because others price up MI as a scarce position, I punted there too and loaded up on starting pitching, first basemen and outfielders.

I know I'm light on steals, but steals (and saves) are the easiest categories for which to trade as they're available in isolation. It's harder to trade for HR, for example, because even if a team has a nice HR lead, it could be in the middle of a pack in RBI and not want to move a power hitter.

I also like to target players who are hard to value: Fielder, Tanaka, Bryant, Pederson, Fernandez, e.g. Most people don't like uncertainty, so they avoid them for too long.

Last year's bums like Harper, Fielder, Beltran and Miller are also usually good values.

Finally, it's nice to get two high-end closers who can help you in K's.