Top Picks and Predictions for UFC Vegas 110: Garcia vs. Onama
The UFC returns home to the Apex for a 13-fight slate full of intriguing matchups. We'll break down each bout looking for profit, including a big underdog with a clear way to win, and a former PFL champion in search of back-to-back victories. Our betting lines are provided by the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Allan Nascimento ($9,100)
Nascimento and Cody Durden are both grapplers, but the Brazilian will likely be a step ahead of his opponent on the mat, as Durden is far too willing to fight off his back. Durden's aggressiveness in the standup will likely lead to Nascimento hitting reactive takedowns, which could translate to the 34-year-old's fifth loss by submission.
David Onama ($7,900)
Onama tends to get wild on the feet, which could certainly get him knocked out by Steve Garcia. However, I still have to side with "The Silent Assassin," who will have an edge in athleticism and is more well-rounded. Look for Onama to stop Garcia's forward pressure with leg kicks and takedown attempts, as "Mean Machine" has yet to face a fighter this dangerous.
Themba Gorimbo ($8,400)
A similar dynamic exists between Gorimbo and Jeremiah Wells, with the latter being an explosive force who generally loses if he is not able to finish his opponent within the first two rounds. The 39-year-old will face height and reach disadvantages in this one, which should limit his ability to get on the inside. Gorimbo was hurt badly before being submitted by Vicente Luque, but I can't trust a fighter with much less craft to land a similar shot.
Montserrat Ruiz ($6,900)
I was a bit confused when I saw Alice Ardelean as such a big favorite here. While Ruiz is limited in her approach, she knows exactly what she wants to do in the Octagon, and I doubt an unstructured fighter like Ardelean will be prepared for the constant pressure and throw attempts. Ardelean is a willing striker and grappler, but this alone should not equate to a (-500) favorite.
Chang Ho Lee ($7,700)
I wrote glowing praise of Lee in each of his first two closely-lined UFC fights, and I will keep going until the oddsmakers start to believe or he faces stiffer competition. The Korean fighter has a classic wrestle-boxer style, which means he will pour on the pressure and pile up points with his striking and grappling. Meanwhile, Timothy Cuamba is far too willing to let the fight come to him, and he is likely going to be overwhelmed by his more powerful opponent.
Seok Hyeon Ko ($8,800)
Phil Rowe looks excellent, provided an opponent is willing to give him space to execute his combinations. This is a luxury he won't be afforded by Ko, who will get in his face early and look for tie-ups to complete takedowns. Rowe's takedown defense rate stands at just 56 percent, which does not bode well for this kind of matchup.
Talita Alencar ($9,000)
The dynamic is pretty straightforward in this one, as Alencar looks to bring her opponents to the ground, while Ariane Carnelossi stands straight up in the pocket while winging big punches. At just 14 percent, Carnelossi sports the lowest takedown defense I've ever seen for someone with multiple UFC fights, making this decision elementary.
Norma Dumont ($8,600)
Ketlen Vieira's boxing and slickness on the ground qualify her as a live dog, but Dumont will carry a strength advantage here and should be able to out-volume her opponent for three rounds. We have seen Dumont employ a suffocating game from top position, so it wouldn't surprise me if she indulged Vieira with scrambles on the mat.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Plays to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Isaac Dulgarian UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes, Kevin Christian OVER 16.5 Significant Strikes, and Sedriques Dumas OVER 14.5 Significant Strikes
Dulgarian looks to wrestle his opponents at every opportunity, and he should get the exact fight he wants against Yadier Del Valle. The Cuban fighter cedes the center of the cage to his opponents and has been known to wear down in fights, which should allow "The Midwest Choppa" to employ his game plan to perfection.
Christian and Billy Elekana are two slow-paced, awkward strikers who like to grapple. This likely means we will get a kickboxing match for as long as the fight lasts. Either man has the power to end this one early, but the deliberate nature of the bout should ensure that we eclipse our total.
While we have seen Dumas stick to a wrestling game plan in the past, debutante Donte Johnson is an agile middleweight, which should make him difficult for "The Reaper" to find. Johnson has finished all of his six wins by KO/TKO in round one, but I have concerns that his movement-heavy style won't translate to finishes at this level.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
UFC Bets to Consider
Ante Delija Wins via KO/TKO (+255)
We effortlessly cashed a ticket when Delija knocked out Marcin Tybura in Round 1 of his UFC debut, and I like him to hand Waldo Cortes-Acosta his first loss by finish. I have never been a fan of "Salsa Boy" as a fighter, owing primarily to his limited offense, his susceptibility to leg kicks, and the fact that toughness seems to be his defining attribute. Delija is an athletic combination puncher who is willing to pressure his opponents, which puts him ahead of most of the UFC heavyweight division by default.
Charlie Radtke Wins via KO/TKO (+270)
The fast hands and power of Radtke make him a perennial threat to end fights early. I like him to do just that against Daniel Frunza, who was knocked down three times by Rhys McKee until the fight was mercifully stopped in his corner. Frunza spends entirely too much time on the back foot looking to counterpunch, which is not a place you want to put yourself against "Chuck Buffalo."
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 110 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
