On one hand, the Reds made exactly as many trades as the Phillies and Rockies, two teams in more dire need of an overhaul than the Reds. On the other hand, they remain in a precarious position as a franchise. While they've had a nice run in the regular season, making the playoffs three of the last four seasons, this generation's team also hasn't won a playoff series and appears unlikely to make the playoffs this year. Injuries to Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips have exposed the utter lack of depth at the upper levels of their farm system and the 40-man roster, as the likes of Jack Hannahan, Donald Lutz, Ramon Santiago, Skip Schumaker, Neftali Soto and Kristopher Negron have all been found lacking. They begin play Thursday night 53-54, six games behind the Brewers, and 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card in the NL.
But complicating matters is that they aren't bad enough to become sellers either. Their starting rotation is one of the best in baseball, with Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Alfredo Simon all above average. The set-up/closer combo of Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman has been brilliant too. They haven't completely tanked offensively because of the breakout seasons of Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco, and Billy Hamilton has been better than expected.
An optimist might say "... just imagine where the Reds would be with a healthy Votto and Phillips, and with Jay Bruce doing what he usually does each year..." A pessimist might say "... yeah, but they got breakout seasons beyond reasonable optimism from Frazier and Mesoraco, and Simon to boot, and look where they are. And maybe Jay Bruce's swoon is more than just that, but rather a permanent change is his likely outcome?"
Since the All-Star Break, the Reds have scored four runs once, three runs in three other games, and two or less in the eight other games prior to Thursday night. And now that the trade deadline has passed with no Ben Zobrist, no Alex Rios, or hell, even no Emilio Bonifacio (thank God for small favors), no help is coming, either. A healthy Scott Rolen from 15 years ago is not walking in that door. And even that would probably not be enough for this moribund offense. Neither Phillips nor Votto will be back soon, either, and given the nature of each injury there's no guarantee that they'll be in good form when they return.
They're not especially well-positioned for the future, either. Take a look at the following contracts (team payroll currently at $114M) - information via the great Cot's Baseball Contracts:
Joey Votto - In the *first* year of a 10-year, $225M deal. Yeah, this isn't going to end well.
Brandon Phillips - Yr 3 of a six-year, $72.5M deal - $39M over the next three years.
Jay Bruce - 2 yrs remaining, due $24.5 M.
Homer Bailey - Yr 1 of a six-year, $105 M deal
There are a few other obligations for 2015, including Sean Marshall for $6.5 M. All in all, they currently owe $80.1 M for 2015.
But wait, that's not all! They have a number of other players set to hit arbitration:
Aroldis Chapman (Year 2, made $7.8 M this year)
Mat Latos (Year 3, made $7.25 M this year)Mike Leake (Year 3, $5.9 M)
Johnny Cueto (team option, almost certainly exercised, made $10M this year)
Alfredo Simon (Year 3, $1.5 M)
That's right, four of five members of the rotation are going to be in the final year of their contract in 2015, and they all will cost more than this year. They are virtually guaranteed to run the total salary higher than last year by a significant margin.
Yet, there's still more - Frazier & Mesoraco will both be in Year 1 of arbitration - certainly less painful of a price, but both will also get significant raises.
And with all of that, the team isn't likely to be all that much better than it has been in 2014 - an 85-87 win team when healthy, and less than .500 in its current form. How exactly are they going to improve, when the Pirates, Cardinals and Cubs should all get better, and the Brewers shouldn't be much worse?
This is a fine trap that the Reds have built for themselves, and while I don't blame GM Walt Jocketty for not buying at the trade deadline, I wonder if selling might have been the more prudent route.