I don't speak for all of SABR, but my impression of sabermetric conventional wisdom is that the hot hand doesn't really exist. Or, at the least, it doesn't last long enough for us to act on that. However, DFS has turned that on its head - we *can* act quickly with daily games and try to ride what we perceive to be hot streaks, assuming that the duration lasts longer than two-to-three days. Moreover, sometimes that hot hand is a portent of a permanent change. If you don't act on that early, you miss out on the buying opportunity when it's low.
To that end, I did pretty well last week frequently using Devon Travis and Jimmy Paredes, two near-minimum priced players that were in good spots in the batting order, often playing in good parks and facing vulnerable pitchers. The price on both is starting to adjust so that they're no longer great bargains, especially on Draft Kings, where Paredes would have cost you $4,000 yesterday had the Orioles game been played.
But I think also that there was a buying opportunity for him in season-long leagues, especially in deeper pools like the Main Event in the NFBC and especially in AL-only leagues, where finding any sort of full-time bat is a difficult proposition, let alone one where the batter hits second or third more often than not. The Orioles will probably continue to use him there for a while. J.J. Hardy just had a setback in his rehab, and Jonathan Schoop's injury is a long-term one. Meanwhile, the O's still have a potent lineup and a good ballpark. Perhaps my DFS play is shading my opinion about players in season-long leagues, or maybe it's helping me. But it encouraged me to bid aggressively on Paredes in Tout Wars.
AL Tout Wars (12-team AL-only):
Lawr Michaels: pur CBassitt Oak 0
Larry Schechter: pur ENunez Min 2
Andy Behrens: pur WandRodriguez Tex 1
Rob Leibowitz: pur ESogard Oak 3
Rob Leibowitz: pur CBedrosian LAA 1
Steve Moyer: pur JThole Tor 0
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton: pur RRaburn Cle 1
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton: pur SRobinson Min 1
Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton: pur CWhitley NYY 1
Jeff Erickson: pur JParedes Bal 9
Chris Liss: pur CQuentin Sea 1
Jason Collette: pur BGomes TB 0
Because Tout Wars uses the Vickery bidding system, I got a significant rebate on my $37 bid - and I overbid purposefully thinking that I'd get him somewhere between $15-20. But it's not often that you get a chance to get a guy with such playing time and batting order possibilities other than at the trade deadline, and that's only giving you two months of that production. I'd rather spend now and take my chances. Chris Liss was the only other Tout that bid on Paredes at all! I was shocked to see that - even if you're not a big believer, isn't he worth a buck or two just in case he has made some sort of J.D. Martinez-like conversion that's made him a better hitter? I'm really stunned that there was so little competition for him.
NFBC Main Event
| Team | Player | Bid | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sasha's Team | Kevin Gausman (MR) | 238 | 88 |
| ALL-IN MAIN | Addison Russell (SS) | 226 | 175 |
| Scott's Tots | Yimi Garcia (MR) | 136 | 68 |
| Incredible Hulking Us LV | Jesse Chavez (MR) | 107 | 86 |
| Incredible Hulking Us LV | Jimmy Paredes (3B) | 89 | 77 |
| RotoWire - Erickson | Kevin Plawecki (C) | 75 | 55 |
| Bad Brad and Wild Will | Chris Young (CF) | 73 | 67 |
| Welcome to Stevieland | Marco Gonzales (SP) | 72 | 26 |
| Bad Brad and Wild Will | Zack Cozart (SS) | 66 | 23 |
| ALL-IN MAIN | Andre Ethier (RF) | 56 | |
| Team Travis | Justin Maxwell (CF) | 55 | 24 |
| Welcome to Stevieland | Nick Swisher (1B) | 37 | |
| HeartBreaKers | Tim Hudson (SP) | 32 | 23 |
| ALL-IN MAIN | Aaron Harang (SP) | 26 | 25 |
| ALL-IN MAIN | Brock Holt (3B) | 26 | 15 |
| Giancarlo...A Gift | Sam Fuld (CF) | 25 | 18 |
| Team Warner | Chris Hatcher (MR) | 24 | |
| Team Warner | Kevin Pillar (LF) | 21 | 18 |
| The Weasel Peckers | Mitch Moreland (1B) | 16 | |
| The Weasel Peckers | Mike Bolsinger (SP) | 15 | |
| RotoWire - Erickson | David Phelps (SP) | 15 | 5 |
| Team Warner | Chris Iannetta (C) | 15 | |
| ALL-IN MAIN | Ryan Vogelsong (SP) | 13 | |
| Team Travis | Ryan Hanigan (C) | 12 | 5 |
| Welcome to Stevieland | Scott Feldman (SP) | 8 | |
| Philbys | Aaron Barrett (MR) | 6 | |
| DT & Gut | Tim Beckham (2B) | 6 | |
| The Weasel Peckers | Eric Sogard (2B) | 5 | |
| The Weasel Peckers | Martin Maldonado (C) | 5 | |
| Welcome to Stevieland | Seth Smith (LF) | 5 | |
| On The Jazz | Rafael Soriano (MR) | 4 | |
| RotoWire - Erickson | Yunel Escobar (SS) | 1 |
I finally got a second catcher that plays full-time! Anthony (not Luke, as I accidentally called him on the podcast - apologies) Recker no longer haunts my lineup. I also cut John Jaso - I just couldn't manage keeping four catchers on the roster with no DL slots. That he got put on the 60-day DL the next day seemed validating.
I also picked up David Phelps less for this week but more for his two-step week next week. He's this year's Jason Hammel (though Jason Hammel is also this year's Jason Hammel) - a pitcher moving from the AL to the NL, and to the best pitching division in the NL. He might not have the same strikeout rate, but I think he's going to do well as a starter for the Marlins.
Bad News - I had Brandon McCarthy in this league, so my already vulnerable strikeout potential just took a pretty big hit.
NFBC Online - Beat Jeff Erickson1
| Team | Player | Bid | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Griffey2016 | Yimi Garcia (MR) | 160 | 25 |
| TIgers Slappy | Addison Russell (SS) | 134 | 133 |
| Griffey2016 | Travis d'Arnaud (C) | 125 | |
| Epinephrine | Wilmer Flores (SS) | 89 | 25 |
| The Achievers - OL | Jesse Chavez (MR) | 75 | 29 |
| ChrisLiss4President | Mike Moustakas (3B) | 75 | 66 |
| Griffey2016 | Mark Teixeira (1B) | 50 | |
| Griffey2016 | Yonder Alonso (1B) | 50 | 1 |
| RotoWire - Erickson | Kevin Plawecki (C) | 35 | |
| CRASH DAVIS RWC 03-02 | Jimmy Paredes (3B) | 32 | 25 |
| SLAAAYER | Chris Owings (2B) | 32 | |
| Griffey2016 | Adeiny Hechavarria (SS) | 31 | 1 |
| Epinephrine | Francisco Cervelli (C) | 29 | 2 |
| ChrisLiss4President | Zack Cozart (SS) | 25 | |
| Mudhens | Jarred Cosart (SP) | 22 | |
| RotoWire - Erickson | Aaron Harang (SP) | 15 | 1 |
| TIgers Slappy | Jonathon Niese (SP) | 15 | 1 |
| ChrisLiss4President | J.A. Happ (SP) | 10 | |
| CRASH DAVIS RWC 03-02 | Juan Lagares (CF) | 10 | |
| Charleston Charge | Will Middlebrooks (3B) | 7 | 1 |
| SLAAAYER | Aaron Sanchez (SP) | 7 | |
| Charleston Charge | Rubby De La Rosa (SP) | 5 | |
| Griffey2016 | A.J. Pierzynski (C) | 5 | 1 |
| Mudhens | Odubel Herrera (CF) | 2 | 2 |
| TIgers Slappy | Martin Maldonado (C) | 1 | 1 |
| A REMEDY FOR MY ADDICTION | Tim Lincecum (SP) | 1 | |
| A REMEDY FOR MY ADDICTION | Ike Davis (1B) | 1 | |
| ChrisLiss4President | Kevin Gausman (MR) | 1 |
I lost Jonathan Lucroy in this league, so that's two leagues where I added Plawecki. I'm also drinking a little of the Aaron Harang Kool-Aid. We'll see how that one goes.
NFBC Online - Beat Jeff Erickson2 (Gut & El Jefe)
| Team | Player | Bid | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers Slappy | Addison Russell (SS) | 135 | 132 |
| Gut & El Jefe | Jake Marisnick (CF) | 76 | 33 |
| The Krukster | Drew Stubbs (CF) | 65 | |
| Las Vegas Blvd | Daniel Norris (SP) | 65 | 12 |
| Nut Flush | Yimi Garcia (MR) | 48 | 46 |
| Las Vegas Blvd | Michael Saunders (RF) | 40 | 9 |
| Nut Flush | Tony Watson (MR) | 33 | 5 |
| Tigers Slappy | Nick Martinez (SP) | 29 | 5 |
| Gut & El Jefe | Chris Owings (2B) | 28 | |
| KP's Cellar Dwellers | Roberto Perez (C) | 15 | |
| The Torn Ulnar Collateral Ligaments | Chris Heston (SP) | 14 | |
| KP's Cellar Dwellers | Jesse Chavez (MR) | 12 | 12 |
| Nut Flush | Aaron Harang (SP) | 12 | 5 |
| Las Vegas Blvd | Jose Iglesias (SS) | 12 | 8 |
| Sugar Magnolias | Chase Anderson (SP) | 9 | |
| Sugar Magnolias | Tim Beckham (2B) | 5 | |
| Sugar Magnolias | Joaquin Benoit (MR) | 5 | |
| Mudhens | Travis Wood (SP) | 5 | |
| Sack & Luny I | Rubby De La Rosa (SP) | 4 | |
| KP's Cellar Dwellers | A.J. Pierzynski (C) | 2 |
"Tiger Slappy" got Addison Russell in both of my Online Championship leagues - he waits on MI's by design, so his bids on Russell make sense. I'm a little wary that he merits the big bid, in that I don't think that the power/speed stats kick in during his rookie season. So much of his prospect ranking comes from his defense at shortstop - and he's not playing there! Plus, he's batting 7th or 9th more often than not.