This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Utah at Washington - Over 138½
Utah's defense has allowed 80 points per game in six conference road games, which puts us in a great position to cash the over. Washington plays at the second-fastest adjusted tempo in the conference, so if it makes its shots early then it can likely push the tempo, setting a fast pace for Utah to follow. Offensively, Utah could be better, but we also can't overlook the fact that the Utes have recently played the top four defenses in the Pac-12, facing Arizona, UCLA, USC and Washington State within the last two weeks. Utah's offense should play a bit better, considering the defense it's going up against isn't nearly as stout as the other four teams it recently faced. These two teams already played each other at the beginning of January, with Washington winning 74-68. Expecting a similar score Saturday.
Virginia at Notre Dame - Over 122½
Virginia has played in five road conference games this season and all five went over Saturday's total. Most college hoops fans know all about Virginia's extremely slow pace, once again the slowest in the country, though, unlike past seasons, this year's team is surprisingly bad on defense. Since conference season started, Virginia's defense ranks third lowest in the ACC, per KenPom. Virginia's defense has been most vulnerable from the perimeter, where opponents are making 40 percent of three-point attempts during conference season, the second-lowest rate in the ACC. This is rather fitting because Notre Dame's offense is making 40 percent of its three-point attempts since conference season started, the second-highest percentage in the ACC. Notre Dame has a proficient offensive attack overall, ranking 36th overall in the country in terms of its adjusted efficiency rating, so Notre Dame likely will lead the charge in helping us hit the over.
Texas -3½ vs. Tennessee
Tennessee has only played eight games away from home this year, and the Vols are 3-5 in those games, including a 1-3 road record against SEC teams. The issue for Tennessee isn't that it's struggled on the road, but rather that it's no-showed in several of the games, including double-digit losses to Kentucky, LSU and Villanova. Tennessee has lost by at least five points in all five of its losses, so I'm not too concerned about the short number, though it likely will be a close game. Both Tennessee and Texas possess elite defenses, but Texas has the better offensive efficiency, the key reason why I'm siding with the home team. It's also worth pointing out, especially since this might be a close game, Texas has the second-best free-throw percentage in the Big 12, making 78 percent. Tennessee, on the other hand, has struggled with free throws this season, making just 69 percent as a team.
South Carolina + 7½ vs. Texas A&M
Since conference season started, South Carolina has been the superior rebounding team, ranking top four in the SEC in both offensive and defensive rebounding. Texas A&M, meanwhile, is below average in the conference when it comes to rebounding rates. The Gamecocks should have a firm rebounding advantage. South Carolina's offense isn't great, but its defense is a notch better than Texas A&M's, per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings, so if the defense does its usual job, then South Carolina should hang around and stay within range. Texas A&M hasn't played well lately, losing three in a row. It's possible the Aggies end their streak today, but either way, I think South Carolina's superb defense will keep things close.
