This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The college hoops feast continues through Black Friday, as once again many high-profile teams take the court. Here are my best bets for the day.
Baylor vs. 
Florida
These two teams are playing a similar level of basketball, both recording outstanding offensive numbers while also maintaining a strong defense. That said, one team still has a noticeable edge over the other.
Baylor enters Friday with the fifth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the nation, per KenPom, but this is almost a given considering how Baylor has performed in recent years. Dating back to its championship season in 2020-21, the Bears have finished the last three seasons with an offensive efficiency rating that ranks in the top 10 in the nation, with two of those seasons finishing at number two. One might wonder if they can sustain this level of play with another season of roster turnover, and the answer has been a resounding 'yes.' With new faces such as blue-chip freshman Ja'Kobe Walter and impact transfers RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn, Baylor hasn't missed a beat. The Bears are 5-0 and already have a high-quality win by beating Auburn in the season opener, so we don't have many reasons to doubt them.
Florida, meanwhile, has been on shaky ground in recent years, finishing last season at 16-17 and ranked 139th in offensive efficiency. Given these disappointing results, it's not surprising to see that the Gators brought in several talented and experienced transfers. The changes in the roster have paid off nicely so far, although Florida did stumble against Virginia in the second game of the season, so they clearly still have plenty of work to do.
Despite playing relatively well, Florida still trails Baylor in many key categories. First, the Bears are the better shooting team, ranking eighth in the nation in three-point field goal percentage at 42 percent, with Florida shooting closer to the D1 average at 33 percent. Second, Florida has a critical liability when it comes to free-throw shooting, ranking 327th at 62 percent. Baylor is making over 74 percent from the charity stripe, giving us a wide disparity in a key category. Third, Florida has been much sloppier with the ball on offense, ranking 339th in offensive steal percentage, compared to Baylor which ranks 60th in offensive steals.
Looking at the overall numbers, these two teams aren't too far apart from each other, as the current spread indicates; but ultimately, I'm going with Baylor given their immensely successful track record in recent years and the slight roster advantage.
I should also highlight that both of these teams strongly prefer pushing the pace, as the average tempos of both teams rank in the top 60 of fastest teams in the country. Given the scoring prowess, lesser defensive numbers and speedy tempo, it's only natural that we jump on the over as well.
College Basketball Best Bet: Baylor -3 and Over 157
Oregon vs. 
Santa Clara
From Niceville, FL.
On the surface, Oregon is off to a good start. The Ducks are 4-0 and have great efficiency numbers on both ends of the court. But despite the positive numbers, Oregon has two areas that are extremely alarming. First, the Ducks are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the nation, making under 59 percent which is somehow not the worst percentage, but 346th among all D1 teams. Second, Oregon is making under 49 percent of two-point shots, good for 220th in the country. The latter is less problematic against smaller or weaker teams, but this number doesn't bode well against Friday's opponent.
Santa Clara is flying high and under the radar, still undefeated while also having a quality win from when they won at Stanford, 89-77. The Cardinal recently pushed Arkansas to the brink, taking them to double overtime before falling, so the Broncos' win seemingly carries more weight now. Resume aside, Santa Clara has several numbers that suggest this team is legitimately good. The Broncos are among the best teams in the paint, posting the 13th-highest two-point field goal percentage in the nation at 60 percent, while also holding opponents to under 39 percent on two-point shots, the fourth-lowest percentage allowed among all D1 teams. Considering these elite numbers near the basket, it's not surprising to see that Santa Clara has the fourth-tallest team in the nation in average height, per KenPom.
While it's tough to go against Oregon, the Ducks are far from perfect, making them prone to an early season lapse. Given Oregon's red flags and Santa Clara's strengths, I'm taking the points with the Broncos in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +6
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Baylor -3
- Baylor vs. Florida - Over 157
- Santa Clara +6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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