This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
A few Pac-12 teams tip off the start of the conference season on Thursday's college hoops slate. Here are my best bets for the day.
USC at 
Oregon
USC survived the non-conference season with a winning record, although it wasn't pretty. The Trojans won six of 11 games while playing the 45th-most difficult schedule in the country, per KenPom, so one could argue the number of losses isn't as bad as it looks. Even still, a couple of the losses came against teams that they were expected to beat, making it hard to fully justify the mixed results.
Oregon, in contrast, won eight of 11 non-conference games, but for what it's worth, the Ducks played a noticeably easier schedule. And much like its opponent on Thursday, Oregon has also had a couple of disappointing performances, like losing decisively to Santa Clara and Syracuse. In any event, the Ducks have shown that they're still a formidable team, as we've come to expect with head coach Dana Altman at the helm.
Comparing these teams at first glance, they're remarkably similar. Both teams play a balanced brand of basketball and are ranked almost side-by-side in offensive, defensive, and overall efficiency. Both teams are also playing slightly better on the offensive end, posting higher scoring numbers compared to those on defense.
Overall, the margin between these teams is extremely narrow, with each having small advantages over the other. The Ducks are better in the turnover categories, but then they've also had a significant problem with defensive fouling, ranking 244th in defensive free-throw attempt rate. USC, meanwhile, is better at three-point shooting and free-throw shooting. All things considered, I have to pass on the spread, but I do have one angle I like.
USC has seen the total go over in five of its last six games, in part due to an incredibly fast pace, ranking 93rd in tempo. Oregon, as it turns out, also likes to push the pace, ranking 130th in tempo. When factoring in the styles of each team and the strengths and weaknesses, we have a great chance of seeing a ton of points scored in this matchup. The number is on the higher side, but I'm betting we'll top it by the end of the game. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 148
UCLA at 
Oregon State
I gave the Bruins the benefit of the doubt in their last game and picked them to beat Maryland, thinking they were at rock bottom. Little did I know, UCLA is still in a free-fall. The Bruins have now lost six of their last seven games against D1 opponents, with the one victory in that span being a one-point home win against UC Riverside, a team that's 5-7 and ranks far below any Pac-12 team in overall efficiency.
Oregon State, on the other hand, enters Thursday on a five-game winning streak. The Beavers have a decent record at 8-3, although it's played an extremely easy schedule, making it a little more difficult to discern its true potential. Either way, Oregon State remains undefeated at home, winning all eight games in Corvallis, including a victory over Appalachian State, which isn't too far from UCLA in the overall efficiency category.
Similar to the other Pac-12 clash taking place elsewhere in the state of Oregon, the battle in Gill Coliseum will feature a matchup between two somewhat similar teams. Both teams are much better on the defensive end of the court while having significant scoring issues. To put it into perspective, UCLA has the third-lowest offensive efficiency rating among all Pac-12 teams while Oregon State ranks last. That said, the Beavers have better shooting numbers than the Bruins, so an upset is certainly possible. Oregon State ranks higher in two-point field goal percentage, three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, and free-throw percentage. UCLA has scored under 70 points in six of its last seven games against D1 opponents, although the biggest red flag is perhaps its inability to make outside shots. The Bruins rarely score from behind the arc, with three-pointers accounting for just 18 percent of their total points, the eighth-lowest percentage among all 362 D1 teams.
Given UCLA's scoring troubles and Oregon State's resilience at home, I'm taking the points in this matchup. Road conference games are never a given, and it's even harder to cover a medium-sized spread when a team is one-dimensional without an outside threat. The Bruins have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games, including losing against the spread in their last five. I'm betting it will be six straight after Thursday.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under based on the strengths of each team. Both squads will rely on their defensive prowess to secure the victory, and on top of that, both also prefer playing at an extremely slow pace. Oregon State ranks 289th in tempo and UCLA plays even slower, ranked at No. 308. The number to beat is low, but considering how these teams are playing lately, I like our odds of a low-scoring game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 128.5 and Oregon State +6.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- USC at Oregon - Over 148
- UCLA at Oregon State - Under 128.5
- Oregon State +6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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