This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Syracuse 
at Illinois 
The Fighting Illini have been explosive on both ends of the court, ranking No. 19 in adjusted defensive efficiency while ranking No. 37 on offense. Regarding the latter, it's worth pointing out that Illinois is making over 62 percent of its two-point shot attempts, the seventh-highest percentage in the country, in addition to recording the fifth-highest effective field goal percentage. Additionally, Illinois has a gigantic advantage on the glass in this matchup, with the Fighting Illini ranking No. 32 in offensive rebounding rate compared to No. 314 for Syracuse in defensive rebounding. The Orange's defense overall hasn't been great, ranking No. 99 in adjusted defensive efficiency, so all signs point to Illinois putting up a ton of points at home.
Syracuse is a little sharper on the offensive end, ranking No. 47 in adjusted efficiency, and while it doesn't rank as high in shooting percentages, it doesn't rank low in any specific categories either. A competent offense all around. It certainly faces a stiff challenge in the form of Illinois' defensive pressure, but the latter has shown that it's bendable in fast-paced games. Earlier this season on Nov. 14, Illinois hosted Monmouth, a winless 0-7 team with an offense that ranks No. 337 in adjusted efficiency, and the Fighting Illini blew past the Hawks with a final score of 103-65.
One more important note, Illinois is playing at the 11th fastest tempo in the country this season (per KenPom) and even pushed a typically slow UCLA team into a shootout. There's always a chance Syracuse struggles on the offensive end, but either way, this game should see a high number of possessions. I'm on the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 145
Baylor 
at Marquette
Marquette has played seven games this season and only one of them went over today's game total. That was a 97-73 home victory against lowly Central Michigan. This includes a road game against Purdue, which has the fourth-best offense in the country per KenPom's adjusted efficiency ratings. Marquette's defense held on tight against the Boilermakers, but ultimately fell 75-70. This is a pertinent outcome because Marquette will host the team with the second-best offense in D1 basketball, the Baylor Bears.
Baylor has had a knack for playing in high-scoring games this season, but keep in mind that most of them are against inferior competition, allowing the Bears' high-powered offense to run up the score. Baylor scored under 81 points in both games against even competition in Las Vegas, a total more in line with what we can expect in today's game. The Bears' defense, meanwhile, should have an easier time, as Marquette's offensive efficiency rating is much further down compared to what Baylor saw in Las Vegas. Outside of its games against Virginia and UCLA, both ranking top-10 in offensive efficiency, Baylor's defense is allowing an average of 61 points per game.
Both teams prefer playing at a fast tempo, so this game will likely have a couple of scoring outbursts, but ultimately I'm trusting Marquette's defense will rise to the challenge, similar to how it performed against an equally potent Purdue team. Given the high number we're working with, I like our chances on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 156
Virginia 
at Michigan 
Virginia had an impressive showing in Las Vegas just over a week ago, soundly defeating both Baylor and Illinois in back-to-back games. The Cavaliers don't really have any major weaknesses. They rank No. 5 in offensive adjusted efficiency and No. 14 in defense. Additionally, the Cavaliers are one of the best shooting teams in the country, making 45 percent of their three-point shots, the fourth-highest percentage among all D1 teams. And it's not just a couple of elite shooters doing the damage, as Virginia currently has five different players making over 42 percent of three-pointers on at least 13 attempts. The Cavaliers also have the highest team assist rate in the country, underscoring the collective and unselfish firepower of the team.
These traits are in stark contrast to a Michigan team that, although 5-1, has shown several red flags throughout the early part of the season. On Nov. 11, Michigan barely survived against Eastern Michigan, 88-83, an Eagles team that ranks No. 317 in KenPom's overall efficiency standings. Similarly, the Wolverines recently hosted Jackson State, ranked No. 302 in overall efficiency, and only defeated a winless 0-5 Jackrabbits team by a score of 78-68. In comparison, Jackson State played at Indiana two days later and lost 90-51. These outcomes are relatively minor compared to what happened on Nov. 17 when Michigan got crushed by Arizona State, 87-62. The Sun Devils aren't great at scoring, ranking No. 104 in adjusted efficiency, so this blemish doesn't bode well. Any way you look at it, Michigan's defense has struggled many times this season and is in store for its toughest challenge yet.
All in all, these two teams are not on the same level. The Cavaliers are better at shooting, better at rebounding, better at playing defense, better at free-throw shooting, and to top it off, Virginia's roster also ranks top-10 in the country in both D1 experience and minutes continuity from last season. Hard to find a more cohesive team. Given a short line, I'll take the Cavaliers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia -4
Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Syracuse at Illinois - Over 145
- Baylor at Marquette - Under 156
- Virginia -4
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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