This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With another round of compelling inter-conference matchups on the slate, Steve Peralta shares his college basketball best bets for Wednesday.
Central Florida at 
Mississippi
Both of these teams are mostly equal on the defensive end, but the offense is a different story. UCF ranks No. 126 in adjusted offensive efficiency, much lower than Mississippi, which currently sits at No. 57, per KenPom. The Knights' biggest problem, however, is turnovers. UCF is giving the ball away at one of the worst rates among all D1 teams, ranking No. 324 in that category, and the problem is compounded by the fact that Mississippi's defense is generating turnovers at an impressive rate, stealing the ball at the 17th-highest rate in the country.
Additionally, UCF has had trouble scoring inside the arc, making just 48 percent of its two-point field goal attempts. Again, this will likely haunt the Knights in this matchup, as the Rebels' defense is holding opponents to 44 percent on two-point shots. One area where UCF's offense is actually good is long-range shooting, making over 36 percent of three-point shot attempts, although it's worth pointing out that this will be UCF's first true road game of the season, so it's hard to bank on them hitting deep shots in a hostile environment. In fact, UCF has only played two games away from home, both in the Bahamas, and the Knights couldn't break 60 points through regulation in either game.
Mississippi, on the other hand, has excelled on offense throughout most of the season. The Rebels scored at least 70 points in each of their first six games, which included wins over Florida Atlantic and Stanford, two teams with respectable defenses. In its last home game, Mississippi erupted for 98 points against Valparaiso, so the Rebels appear to be back to form after suffering tough losses to Oklahoma and Memphis in between.
UCF's defense will likely keep the Knights in the game, but ultimately I'm betting that the significantly better offensive team will pull away at home when it's all said and done. I'll take the Rebels.
College Basketball Best Bet: Mississippi -6
UCLA at 
Maryland
UCLA enters Wednesday's game riding a five-game winning streak, but extending it won't be easy. The Bruins' trip to Maryland will be just their third game outside of Pauley Pavillion, and their first true road game outside of California. Earlier in November, UCLA played Illinois and Baylor in Las Vegas, and the Bruins' defense got torched both times, allowing over 78 points to both teams in a pair of losses. UCLA has put up impressive stats against lesser opponents, but Maryland will be its toughest opponent since the teams it faced in Las Vegas. It's true that UCLA's offense is among the best in the country, although its defense has been slightly more vulnerable this year compared to last year's team, as we saw in its two losses against elite teams.
The Terrapins, meanwhile, return home after losing close games to Wisconsin and Tennessee. Prior to their two-game skid, Maryland took down Illinois at home, a solid victory considering that was the same Illini team that beat UCLA. Maryland is an incredibly balanced team with hardly any weaknesses, ranking top-30 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. UCLA can make a similar claim, however, there is one significant discrepancy in this matchup. Unlike Maryland's defense, UCLA's defense has had trouble guarding the paint. The Bruins are allowing opponents to make 53 percent of two-point field goal attempts, well above the D1 average, which is not a great sign for them because the Terrapins are making 57 percent of two-point attempts, the 21st-highest percentage among all D1 teams. These two teams otherwise match up pretty evenly, although this offensive advantage for Maryland is hard to overlook.
All things considered, Maryland appears to have the edge. The Terrapins are playing at home, while the Bruins are playing in their first game outside of the Pacific Time Zone. Given the line and Maryland's offensive advantage mentioned earlier, I'll take the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland pk
Long Beach State at 
USC
USC sports a 7-3 record, but the wins are often difficult, and its offense has been rough to watch. The Trojans won their last three games, but they didn't score more than 66 points in any of them. This note reads significantly worse when looking at the opponents: California, Oregon State and Cal St. Fullerton. The former two teams are by far the worst defensive teams in the Pac-12 and the latter ranks right alongside them in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Long Beach State is ranked higher on defense than all three of them, so there's not much reason to think the Trojans' scoring output will be any better in Wednesday's game. The other problem for USC is that this is not a new trend. The Trojans scored just 61 points in the opening game of the season against Florida Gulf Coast, then put up just 59 points a week later against Vermont. Not a great offensive team any way you look at it. Defensively, USC is playing much better, which is the main reason why the Trojans have already won seven games. The Trojans have allowed 64 points or fewer through regulation in each of their last five games, a great trend that we can expect to continue heading into Wednesday, given the opponent.
Long Beach State ranks No. 198 in adjusted offensive efficiency, so it doesn't seem likely the Beach will have much luck scoring points against a stout USC defense. In addition to general efficiency woes, Long Beach State has two other critical problems with its offense. First, the team is attempting three-point shots at the lowest rate in the country. Long Beach State is only making 32 percent of its three-point shots, so it's understandable why the unit is shooting at a low rate. The other major issue for Long Beach State is its free throw shooting. Long Beach State is making just 60 percent of its free throw attempts this season, ranking No. 353 among all D1 teams. The last time Long Beach State faced an opponent with a defense close to USC in adjusted efficiency, it scored just 47 points in a loss against North Texas.
Both of these teams prefer playing fast on the offensive end whenever possible, but their defenses are among the best at slowing opponents down. Both teams rank in the bottom 10 percent among all D1 teams in defensive possession length, emphasizing the defensive prowess and ability to prevent opponents from taking a high-percentage shot. It's always possible the tempo in this game will speed up, escalating the scoring, but considering the offensive issues of both teams, a lower-scoring game seems like the most likely outcome. I'm intrigued by the double-digit spread with the dog, but ultimately I prefer the under in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 145.5
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Mississippi -6
- Maryland pk
- Long Beach St. at USC - Under 145.5
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