This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
With several major conferences back in action on Wednesday's college hoops slate, here are my predictions for a few intriguing matchups.
Virginia Tech 
at Virginia 
The Hokies have struggled since the non-conference season ended, losing three of their last four games to ACC opponents. Virginia Tech's lone victory in that span came at home against Clemson, a solid performance but that was also its only good win since November when it knocked off Boise State and Iowa State in back-to-back games. The Hokies have shown they still have the potential to turn things around, but the task doesn't get any easier on Wednesday, now having to travel and face a desperate Virginia squad.
The Cavaliers, meanwhile, haven't fared any better. Virginia has also lost three of its last four conference games, making Wednesday's outcome critical for both teams. And much like their guests on Wednesday, the Cavaliers also had a couple of notable victories earlier in the year, defeating Florida and Texas A&M in November, but they haven't accomplished as much in recent games.
When comparing these two teams, the biggest question mark is Virginia's offense. The Cavaliers are significantly better on defense, almost a given considering the gold standard established by head coach Tony Bennett, and they also have a huge advantage in the turnover department. The latter will likely be a major issue for Virginia Tech, as Virginia's defense is causing turnovers at the 14th-highest rate in the nation, and the Hokies have been careless with the ball all season and have been particularly sloppy against ACC foes, recording the second-worst offensive turnover percentage in the conference since league play started. Going in the other direction, led by star senior point guard Reece Beekman, the Cavaliers are extremely careful with the ball, recording the fourth-lowest offensive turnover percentage among all D1 teams.
With the Cavaliers back in Charlottesville, where they scored 84 points against Syracuse in their first conference game of the season, I'm betting they'll be locked in and ready to score points. They may prove me wrong, but I trust home cooking will help get them back on track following a pair of disappointing road games. As long as their defense lives up to its lofty reputation, I like our chances of seeing a decisive Virginia victory. I'm laying the points with the home team in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia -3.5
Nebraska 
at Rutgers 
The Cornhuskers followed up their epic win over Purdue with a rough loss at Iowa, falling 94-76 in their recent game last Friday. Nebraska's strength lies in its scoring ability, posting the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten since conference play started.
Not to be out down by their guests on Wednesday, Rutgers offers a defense that will meet its match, as the Scarlett Knights have the third-best defensive efficiency rating in the Big Ten during league competition. The defensive performance is critical because Rutgers has had severe scoring issues, by far the worst offensive team in the Big Ten.
Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team, this game is seemingly destined to end with a low final score. Rutgers' elite defense should counter Nebraska's offense, while the Huskers' persistent defense should be able to slow down the struggling home team. Nebraska's efficiency numbers don't reveal a great defensive team, but it's worth noting that, at the very least, Nebraska is surprisingly effective in slowing down opposing offenses, ranking 345th in defensive tempo. This trend has also held up during the conference season, recording the slowest defensive tempo in the Big Ten. This was perhaps most evident against Iowa, a game that had just 70 total possessions, the second-fewest in any game with Iowa all season. The Hawkeyes are known for sprinting down the court, playing at the sixth-fastest tempo in the nation, so the low number of possessions further affirms this notion.
For all these reasons, I'm taking the under in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 142
UCF at Texas 
UCF caught everyone's attention when it stunned Kansas a week ago, defeating the Jayhawks by a final score of 65-60. The Knights nearly pulled off another upset when they hosted BYU in the following game, but they ultimately fell, 63-58. UCF undoubtedly looked impressive during its monumental win over the Jayhawks, although its season-long prospects remain grim. The Knights easily have the lowest offensive efficiency rating in the Big 12, and KenPom is projecting they will be favored in just thee games for the remainder of the season.
Texas, in contrast, is coming off a surprising loss at West Virginia this past Saturday, 76-73. It would be easy to write them off after such a disappointing outcome, but the Longhorns still have strong numbers on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 50 of the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Texas has already defeated LSU and Cincinnati, outscoring two stingy defenses, so it's shown that it's still a good team despite losing two of its first three conference games.
In stacking these teams against each other, the biggest area that stands out is UCF's offense or lack thereof. The Knights failed to reach 60 points in both conference losses against Kansas State and BYU, and they barely reached 65 points against Kansas. The Longhorns' defense isn't as razor sharp in recent years, but it's still formidable and matches up well against the Knights. UCF's best offensive category is offensive rebounding, where it ranks 36th in the country, but it's going against a Texas defense that has been active on the glass in recent games, collecting defensive rebounds at the third-highest rate in the Big 12 since conference play started.
On the other end of the court, UCF has played defense at an elite level for most of the season, posting the 16th-best defensive efficiency rating, however, the Knights have quickly discovered that Big 12 competition is on an entirely different level than their non-conference opponents, which was an extremely easy slate, ranking 331st in difficulty, per KenPom. Since the conference season tipped off, UCF ranks seventh in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, which is still a good mark, but perhaps not as impressive as the season-long numbers would indicate.
Looking at the bottom line, it's hard to imagine UCF keeping up with Texas while playing on the road. The Knights showed tremendous spirit in its recent homestand, but life on the road in the Big 12 is as tough as it gets. UCF has only played in two true road games all season long, and both were double-digit losses against teams that are comparable to, if not slightly worse than Texas. I won't be surprised if UCF can stay in the game for a half, but I'm trusting that the home team will pull away when all is said and done thanks to its proficient offensive attack. I'm laying the points with the Longhorns in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas -8
Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Wednesday:
- Virginia -3.5
- Nebraska at Rutgers - Under 142
- Texas -8
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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